Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Week 11 Fantasy Football Matchup?

Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Week 11 Fantasy Football Matchup? article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill

  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Chiefs and Chargers players scoring enough points to win your Week 11 fantasy football matchups.

Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy football matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.

So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 28 points from Tyreek Hill? He has a 8.9% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Damien Williams, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce
  • Chargers: Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers

Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs

Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers

Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers

Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs

Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs

Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers

Mike Williams, WR, Chargers

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs

Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers

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