Chiefs vs. Bills Odds: Latest AFC Championship Lines, Projections With vs. Without Patrick Mahomes, More

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds: Latest AFC Championship Lines, Projections With vs. Without Patrick Mahomes, More article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen

It didn’t happen as expected, but the Kansas City Chiefs are advancing to the AFC Championship Game to take on the Buffalo Bills.

Patrick Mahomes suffered a concussion during the third quarter that sidelined him for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Browns, but Chad Henne and the Chiefs did just enough to hold on for the victory. Facing fourth-and-inches at mid-field with a 22-17 lead, the Chiefs leaned on Henne for a roll-out completion to Tyreek Hill for five yards and a place in the conference championship.

Now the question is whether Mahomes will be ready to start against the Bills. Our own Darren Rovell consulted two doctors to get an idea of what to expect on Mahomes’ timetable and we’re tracking the latest updates, but regardless, sportsbooks have already opened odds. Find the latest below followed by our projections with vs. without Mahomes.

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds

Chiefs Odds
-3
Bills Odds
+3
Total
54
Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings.

Chiefs vs. Bills Projections

Sean Koerner, Director of Predictive Analytics, has projected spreads for both with or without Mahomes.

With Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs Odds
-2.5
Bills Odds
+2.5
Total
56.5
Without Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs Odds
+3.5
Bills Odds
-3.5
Total
51.5

Chiefs vs. Bills Player Ratings

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, uses his player projections to calculate the most valuable players on each team based on their worth to the spread.

Most Valuable Bills Players
Worth
QB Josh Allen
4.64
WR Stefon Diggs
1.03
WR Cole Beasley
0.43
CB Tre’Davious White
0.41
FS Micah Hyde
0.35

Most Valuable Chiefs Players
Worth
QB Patrick Mahomes
5.99
WR Tyreek Hill
0.92
TE Travis Kelce
0.71
DT Chris Jones
0.71
FS Tyrann Mathieu
0.23
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How Kansas City Reached the AFC Championship

  • Regular Season Record: 14-2
  • Wild Card Round: Bye
  • Divisional Round: Beat the Browns, 22-17

Patrick Mahomes, that’s how.

The MVP candidate was nearly flawless over the regular season, throwing 38 touchdowns to just six interceptions and finishing second in the NFL with 4,740 yards. He was second in passing yards to Deshaun Watson, and that’s only because he sat out Week 17 with the Chiefs already owning the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Kansas City’s lone defeat came in Week 5 to the Raiders, but the Chiefs responded with a 10-win streak and quickly quieted any concerns that came out of the loss. Going over their regular-season total of 11.5 wins was never really in doubt.

The most impressive part of the Chiefs’ run is what they did against playoff teams — they had wins over the Saints, Buccaneers, Bills and Ravens. And what do those games have in common? They were all on the road. The Chiefs’ performance away from Arrowhead Stadium ensured they won’t have to leave home again until the Super Bowl.

Even though Kansas City was almost unbeatable on the field, bettors weren’t rewarded. Often faced with large spreads, the Chiefs were 7-8 against the spread in the 15 games Mahomes started. Tommy Stokke

How Buffalo Reached the AFC Championship

  • Regular Season Record: 13-3
  • Wild Card Round: Beat the Colts, 27-24
  • Divisional Round: Beat the Ravens, 17-3

What a leap the Bills’ offense has taken in 2020.

This is no defense-first team anymore. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll unleashed Josh Allen and an offense that is near the top of the NFL in most major categories. The result was an AFC East championship and real belief in a postseason run.

Allen — always knocked for his accuracy — saw an 11% improvement in completion percentage that took him up to 69%. He threw for 1,200 more yards than in he did in 2019, and his interception rate dropped as well.

Stefon Diggs has also been his perfect match. In Diggs’ first year with Buffalo, the former Vikings receiver led the NFL in receiving yards.

All of that added up to a sterling 11-5 record against the spread in the regular season and now the Bills’ second home game of the postseason. — Stokke

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