Browns vs Texans Prediction & Odds | NFL Week 16 Preview

Browns vs. Texans odds for NFL Week 16 have the Browns installed as three-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 40 points. My NFL pick is on this road favorite in a key matchup for the AFC playoff race.

The Texans and Browns are two of the NFL's biggest surprises and find themselves in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. Injuries have set the Texans back — specifically, quarterback C.J. Stroud, who will be sidelined for a second straight game — but they still somehow managed to win in overtime against the Titans last week. Injuries have also been a problem for Cleveland, but the Browns have been able to find ways to win and keep their postseason hopes alive.

Let's dive into Cleveland-Houston and make a Browns vs. Texans prediction. 

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The Joe Flacco experiment has paid major dividends for the Browns.

Since Flacco took over in Week 13, the Browns have had three of their best passing games of the year. The difference has been Flacco’s ability to attack all parts of the field; he's averaged 9.5 air yards per pass and 7.2 air yards per completion. If he qualified, those numbers would both rank among the top three in the NFL, according to Pro Football Reference. 

However, turnovers are a drawback to the aggressive passing style. In Flacco’s three starts, the Browns have committed seven turnovers. Fortunately, the Browns are one of the few teams that have been able to withstand multiple offensive mistakes. Cleveland is 6-4 in games in which it has have committed multiple turnovers.

Defensively, Cleveland ranks first in yards allowed per drive, second in points per drive and sixth in forced turnovers.

The Browns offense is hitting its stride at the right time and the defense is among the league’s best. If Cleveland can cut back on the turnovers, it'll be a team no one wants to see come playoff time.

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Turning to the Texans, last week was quite the comeback for a backup quarterback. After trailing 13-0 in the first half, Houston fought back to tie the game in the fourth quarter, then kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired in overtime.

With Case Keenum, the Texans leaned on their running game. During the year, the rushing attack has been a problem for Houston as the Texans rank 28th in yards per carry per game. However, against Tennessee, Houston’s run game put up 148 yards. Against Cleveland’s monstrous pass rush, Houston’s ground game will need to show up again.

Defensively, Houston has been dominant against the run, but struggles against the pass. The Texans have the second-best yards per rush allowed, but rank 28th in net yards per pass. Despite their poor net yards per pass for the year, the Texans have shown improvements in recent weeks.

In its last six games, Houston has averaged 1.3 interceptions and 3.5 sacks per game. Flacco lacks mobility and tends to put the ball in harm's way, so if the Texans can continue to create pressure, they could find themselves creating big swing plays.

Houston played a much more conservative style with Keenum under center despite falling behind 13-0. Keenum averaged 1.5 fewer air yards than C.J. Stroud has this year. The Texans will keep it conservative with Stroud sidelined again, which should lead to field goals instead of touchdowns.

The Browns will play the opposite way and allow Flacco to sling the ball. That style will lead to some costly mistakes, but should also result in some big plays.

Cleveland has the better defense and its offense is more inclined to make winning plays. As Flacco continues to learn the offense, hopefully, the mistakes decrease. Even if they don’t, a beat-up Texans offense doesn't have enough to make the Browns pay.