We are seven weeks into the NFL season, and if the postseason started today, it would be quite the shocking playoff picture.
Looking at the big picture in the AFC, you can cross out the Jets, Dolphins, Colts, Texans, Chargers, and Raiders from the contenders. That leaves 10 teams fighting for seven playoff spots. Three of the divisions have clear favorites, but then there is the loaded AFC North.
Let's reset the AFC playoff picture, division by division, and find the best futures value on the board.
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AFC Division & NFL Playoff Picture Reset
| Picks |
|---|
| AFC North |
| AFC West |
| AFC South |
| AFC East |
| Give the Man His Flowers |
AFC North Deep Dive
The AFC North is the most competitive and interesting division in football right now. All four teams are over .500 for a second straight week, so let's dive into the deep end on all four teams.
I'll make the case for how to invest in each of the four teams if you're looking for a ticket — even if it's not my preferred bet — and then give my final verdict on the division at the end, before we get to the other AFC divisions.
Baltimore Ravens
For the second straight week, the Ravens blew a double-digit lead against a division rival and went completely scoreless in the second half. They were up 13-0 at halftime against the Bengals, and it easily could have been 21-0 if they hadn't settled for field goals on 4th-and-1 at the 11-yard line and 4th-and-3 at the 6-yard line.
Instead, Baltimore collapsed, going 0-for-2 on fourth downs, 0-for-3 in the red zone, and committing 10 penalties as the Bengals scored 35 unanswered to win with ease. The Ravens are the first team since 1950 to lose by 20+ points after leading by 13+ at halftime.
The Ravens now have a +65 point differential in the first half this season and a -70 differential in the second half. That 135-point swing is the largest through seven games this century. At this point, this is in their DNA. The coaching change didn't fix the constant wilting.
Right now, this is not a playoff defense. Marlon Humphrey was embarrassed Sunday, the linebackers looked lost, and Baltimore can't generate any pressure.
On offense, the line had a rough day with Cam Jurgens at center, and I am starting to get genuinely concerned about Derrick Henry. He is getting hit in the backfield by run blitzes and lacks his usual acceleration.
The Ravens are now in last place in the division. They play in Buffalo on Sunday and then play Jacksonville on a short week for Thursday Night Football, and we don't even know if Lamar Jackson is playing this week, or what version we'll get.
FTN has Baltimore's division odds down to 9%, but it is still priced at +225 (a 31% implied probability). That price is way off.
This team is far from a lock to even be a playoff team at this point.
How to bet Baltimore: Ravens to Miss the Playoffs at +198 (FanDuel)
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were on the other side of that Baltimore collapse, rattling off 35 straight points.
In the first half, Cincinnati managed just 13 plays for 60 yards. In the second half? Five consecutive touchdown drives — 35 plays, 291 yards, and 8.3 yards per play. Joe Burrow went from -0.60 EPA/play and a 23% success rate in the first half to 1.18 EPA/play and an 89% success rate in the second half.
While it still feels like the same old Bengals — relying on Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins to overcome coaching flaws — the offensive line and defense have improved exactly like we hoped.
The Bengals are No. 2 in overall DVOA and rank in the top 10 across all three phases of the game. This is the first time they have been top three in DVOA for a full decade.
Looking ahead, the Bengals likely only have two games left against playoff opponents. Their upcoming schedule features the Titans, Falcons, Steelers, Commanders, Saints, and Browns. There is a very real path to 9-3 or 10-2.
FTN has them at an 88% probability to make the playoffs and 58% to win the division.
I'm still not sold on the Bengals defense enough to need playoff futures, but I'm seeing value on Cincinnati to make the playoffs, win the division, and most other futures — but I prefer the high-end outcome.
This team has a real path to the 1- or 2-seed, which would put a Joe Burrow MVP ticket in play (+600) but I'll just bet the 1-seed outright.
How to bet Cincinnati: Bengals to be the AFC 1-Seed at 8% (+1150 at Polymarket)
Cleveland Browns
Hear me out: Cleveland's win on Sunday was actually pretty impressive.
Yes, the Browns only beat the terrible Titans by three, but Cleveland fell behind 14-3, suffered weird turnovers, doinked a late field goal, and still found a way to win the exact sort of game we'd typically expect a team like this to lose. The Browns dominated the underlying metrics, posting a 56% to 40% success rate advantage while holding Tennessee to 181 total yards.
The Browns are 5-2, despite their wins coming by margins of 4, 3, 3, 3, and 3 points. Could they be this year's version of last year's Broncos?
The schedule gives them a massive opportunity. Up next for Cleveland is an older Pittsburgh team coming off a trip to France, and they still have winnable games against the Saints, Raiders, Falcons, Giants, and Colts. With five wins already, even winning four of those six puts Cleveland squarely in the playoff mix.
Mike Rutenberg's defense is the real deal, and Deshaun Watson keeps making just enough plays late.
Watson just threw for his first 300-yard game in 2,120 days — he leads the NFL with five game-winning drives and three fourth-quarter comebacks. It's a gross pick, but if Watson is going to keep coming back, you might want to bet it.
How to bet Cleveland: Deshaun Watson for Comeback Player of the Year (+3000 at BetRivers)
Pittsburgh Steelers
I'm not sold on this team at all.
Pittsburgh barely beat Cooper Rush and Jalon Daniels, and its only "good" win was a goofy turnover-luck game against Cincinnati.
I do not buy the Steelers at all — they are totally fraudulent. Their top-10 DVOA rating is inflated by the terrible backup quarterbacks they've been fortunate to face.
This is not a top-10 team. Not even close.
The numbers, however, tell you to bet on them — DVOA gives them 25% division odds and a 67% chance to make the playoffs, which would mean serious value on their current market prices.
But I want nothing to do with it.
The Steelers' schedule is about to turn incredibly sour: home for Cleveland with no rest after France, then at Cincinnati, at Philadelphia, Denver, Houston, at Jacksonville, and Baltimore.
If you trust the metrics, Pittsburgh futures are a no brainer. I can't do it.
How to bet Pittsburgh: Steelers to Make Playoffs at 47% (Polymarket) or Division (+475 at Caesars)
Brandon's AFC North Verdict
Bengals for AFC 1-Seed at 8% (+1150 at Polymarket)
AFC West
The Chiefs finally took their first loss of the and looked completely lifeless in Seattle on Sunday Night Football. They put up three points, made no trips to the red zone, and barely scraped together 200 yards.
Honestly, a loss that bad might have actually been a good thing — it highlights this offense has no weapons outside of Kenneth Walker. They need to get serious and trade for a wide receiver right now.
Meanwhile the Broncos won, but I'm still not buying it. They looked ugly even in an easy win against the Cardinals, posting just a 37% success rate and relying on two fluky, long plays but otherwise managed just 263 yards on 54 plays.
The Broncos are 5-2 with four one-score wins. They profile more like a 3-4 or even 2-5 team… but those wins count either way.
This week is the big one: Chiefs -1.5 at Denver.
Right now, this division is about 60-40 in favor of Kansas City. If the Chiefs win, it's over — they secure the sweep.
But if you like Denver to steal this game, its +170 division odds at DraftKings are a nice play as the upcoming schedule features a super soft stretch (Panthers, Raiders, Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders).
I am passing on the division, but I love a rookie angle here.
You immediately noticed the difference when Broncos running back Jonah Coleman checked into the game over J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey on Sunday. Coleman shows real burst and gives this team the explosive ability it sorely lacks.
Returning from a short-term IR stint, Coleman immediately led the backfield in carry share (50%) and snaps on early downs, third downs, and short yardage. He led the team in RB snaps his last game in Week 2 as well.
The Offensive Rookie of the Year race is wide open, and 60-1 is an absurd number for a starting running back getting this kind of opportunity behind a great offensive line.
Verdict: Jonah Coleman for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+6000 at BetMGM)
AFC South
The Texans losing to the Giants in overtime was one of the most frustrating and shocking results of the entire year.
You let J.J. McCarthy come in for his first career road start and dice you up right after you had just righted your season against the Jaguars? An absolutely disgusting result across the board.
Houston's offense managed just 237 yards and a 39% success rate. Finally armed with wide receivers, the Texans have no cohesive plan. Nico Collins has seen his target rate plummet from 29% in the first two games down to 19% over the last three. What are we doing?!
Defensively was even worse. The Texans allowed 420 yards, 6.5 yards per play, and a 50% rushing success rate. The Giants hadn't ripped off a 20-yard run all season, then did so on back-to-back plays in overtime to win it. This was the third-worst EPA/play allowed in the DeMeco Ryans era, and four of the worst nine have all happened this season.
It's time to accept that this simply is not an elite defense right now.
I downgraded Houston by a full win in my projections, dropping them from 55% to 34% to make the playoffs. This was a completely unacceptable performance by a team that should be in the top 10.
With the Colts and Titans DOA, this might just be a one-team division for the Jaguars.
Still, Houston heads into a badly needed bye week and then faces the Chargers, Browns, and Colts. That soft stretch should get them to 5-5.
The Texans have the second-easiest remaining schedule by DVOA and can still win any game left on their slate.
Even if you want to get back out later, this soft stretch leaves a chance to buy low on a team that should still win football games.
Verdict: Texans Over 8.5 Wins (+134 at DraftKings)
AFC East
There is not a ton of new information on this division entering Week 8.
The Bills were on bye and watched their odds increase thanks to the Patriots losing a winnable Thursday night game in Chicago.
Buffalo is still over 50% for a top-two seed, a good setup for a Josh Allen MVP ticket, but I still don't believe in the defense enough to invest in playoff futures. New England looks a likely playoff team.
But the real value in this division might actually be on the Jets.
Yes, it was an ugly loss to Miami, but New York actually outperformed the Dolphins across the board. The Jets had more yards (377), better yards per play (7.1), a better success rate (52%), and a better explosive rate. Miami was rested off its bye and went 3-for-3 on fourth downs and 3-for-3 in the red zone to squeak out a 3-point win. It happens.
The Jets aren't a great team, but they aren't terrible. They rank between 19th and 22nd in DVOA across offense, defense, special teams, and overall. That is perfectly fine, reminiscent of the Steelers over the last few years. They have four one-score losses this year, and playing tight games against the Packers, Lions, and Patriots are actually good outcomes.
The Jets' remaining schedule is a favorable one. They host a reeling Raiders team this week, and they still play the Chargers, Dolphins, Cardinals, Broncos, and Vikings, plus a Week 18 matchup against a Buffalo team that could be resting starters.
I have the Jets projected for 6.3 wins, so it's time to take advantage of a market overreaction.
Verdict: Jets Over 5.5 Wins at 46% (+117 at Kalshi) | Jets Escalator Over 6.5 Wins at 27% (+270 at Polymarket)
Bonus: Zay Flowers Futures
I have to include this before we wrap up: few players have impressed me more this season than Zay Flowers. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has unlocked an entirely new, insane version of this dude.
Flowers is fifth in the NFL with 608 receiving yards despite missing one full game and two halves due to injury! For context, the four guys clustered around Flowers in yardage at 605-636 yards have played seven full games compared to his five. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba is well out ahead of that group, but he can't perform like this all year.
Flowers has actually played only 257 of the Ravens' 452 snaps this season (57%).
Even more ridiculous, Flowers has only played 67 snaps with Lamar Jackson on the field, basically one game's worth. In those 67 snaps, Flowers has 16 catches for 353 yards and two touchdowns. That is a pace of about 235 yards per game. He is averaging an astronomical 9.1 yards per route run when sharing the field with Jackson.
If Flowers maintained that pace with Jackson over the remaining 10 games, he would put up another 2,350 yards and finish over 3,000 for the season. Ridiculous! That obviously isn't going to happen, but it highlights just how unbelievable his production has been.
I have been looking for a way to invest in Flowers since Week 1, and this is a guy you want to find any way to snag in fantasy football. I'm buying low now before Jackson gets fully integrated back into the lineup.
BET: Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Leader at 2% (+4900 at Kalshi/Polymarket) | Zay Flowers Offensive Player of the Year at 1% (+9900 at Kalshi/Polymarket)
Brandon Anderson's Futures Bets Placed This Week
- Bengals AFC 1-Seed at 8%: +1150 (Polymarket)
- Texans Over 8.5 Wins: +134 (DraftKings)
- Jets Over 5.5 Wins at 46%: +117 (Kalshi)
- Jets Over 6.5 Wins at 27%: +270 (Polymarket)
- Jonah Coleman Offensive Rookie of the Year: +6000 (BetMGM)
- Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Leader at 2%: +4900 (Kalshi/Polymarket)
- Zay Flowers Offensive Player of the Year at 1%: +9900 (Kalshi/Polymarket)
