Eagles vs Chiefs Best Bets: 4 Props & Picks for Monday Night Football
NFL Week 11 concludes with a Super Bowl rematch at Arrowhead Stadium, and we have Eagles vs Chiefs best bets, props and picks for Monday Night Football.
The Eagles vs Chiefs spread for MNF has Kansas City as 2.5-point favorites on the line with a game total over/under of 46 at most books (though 45.5 is available at FanDuel). On the moneyline, the Eagles are +130 (DraftKings) and the Chiefs -140 (bet365). We have one betting analyst who likes this game to go under the total, plus player props for Patrick Mahomes and Drue Tranquill.
Our staff of NFL analysts are all over this heavyweight showdown with this MNF betting preview. Here are our experts' four Eagles vs Chiefs best bets.
Eagles vs Chiefs Best Bets: Props & Picks
The biggest primetime matchup of the season is here, and you're in the right place. Our Eagles vs Chiefs best bets are on the total, Patrick Mahomes player props and a defensive prop.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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Eagles vs Chiefs Odds
Eagles vs. Chiefs
By Billy Ward
I know, I know. We finally have a primetime game that looks like it could turn into a shootout, and I'm saying to bet the under.
While it's not the most fun, it does feel like the sharper side on Monday. We've seen primetime unders return consistent profit dating back half a decade now, with a 63% hit rate over the last five seasons.
On top of that, these aren't the Chiefs of old. Through nine games this season, just three times have Chiefs games eclipsed this mark — and two were blowout victories for Kansas City, which we aren't expecting here.
Kansas City's best unit this season has been its defense, which was tied with the 49ers for the least points allowed per game heading into Week 11's Sunday slate. The Chiefs have been about average on offense, ranking 13th in points scored at 23.1.
Beyond that, this is also a tough matchup for both offenses. Philadelphia has struggled defensively in the secondary, with a solid front seven. Kansas City has just seven touchdowns by wide receivers this season. While Philadelphia struggles to defend wide receivers, they're excellent in the run game, ranking second in DVOA.
On top of that, this game is at Arrowhead Stadium, which has been one of the harder places for opposing offenses to operate in recent years. That'll especially be the case with the weather we're seeing forecasted on Monday, which is consistent rain with wind speeds in the double digits. That should put a further dent on the passing attack of both teams
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Eagles vs. Chiefs
I know that the Chiefs have been passing at a massive clip this season and Mahomes is the best QB in the league, but this is a bad line considering the matchup.
The Eagles tend to massively own the time of possession considering their game plan of running the ball early and often. The Chiefs defense is much worse against the run, which will only lead to a larger edge in time of possession for the Eagles.
Mahomes hasn't been great the last two outings in solid matchups, and he has hit the under at this number in six of nine games this season. This line is about 10 yards too high, and I would hit it down to 280.5.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 285.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Eagles vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs should implement a pass-heavy game plan on Monday night to exploit the biggest weakness in the Eagles defense. The Eagles defense is number two against the run in DVOA but 22nd against the pass. The more passing plays called, the more chances Mahomes will have to scramble and make plays with his legs.
So far this season, Mahomes has had five or more rushing attempts in five of his nine games played. The bigger the game, the more often Mahomes looks to run for first downs. In the Super Bowl last year, even though he was at less than 100% health, he still accounted for six carries.
I am basically considering this a playoff game for the Chiefs given the magnitude of this Super Bowl rematch. Mahomes has cleared 4.5 rushing attempts in seven of his last 12 playoff games, and in two of those games which he didn't reach five carries, Mahomes was dealing with a high ankle sprain.
I have a slight lean to the Chiefs getting the victory on Monday night, thus kneel downs are also in play to close out the football game. Given that some books are still offering plus-money on this prop, this position represents a solid value.
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Eagles vs. Chiefs
By Cody Goggin
When Nick Bolton has missed time this season, offseason acquisition Drue Tranquill has been able to fill in admirably for this Chiefs defense at linebacker. Tranquill has been Bolton’s primary replacement, and his numbers have reflected that.
Bolton has played four games this season, in which Tranquill has played an average of just 22.25 snaps per game. In the games that Bolton hasn’t played, that number has jumped up to 60.6.
Across the five games that Transquil has played without Bolton, he's averaging 5.6 solo tackles per game and 8.8 tackles + assists. He has eclipsed his current solo sack total in three of the five games.
Philadelphia’s propensity to run the ball, especially between the tackles, should set up well for Tranquill to rack up some tackle numbers on Monday night.
This season the Eagles have run the ball at the fifth-highest rate in football, making up 47% of their plays. Their 32.2 rush attempts per game is the third-highest number in the league. Although this has been lower in neutral situations, I would still expect the Eagles to focus on the run game as has been their identity over the last couple of years.
Of Philadelphia’s 231 non-quarterback rushes this season, 52% have been inside of the tackles, which would set up nicely for Tranquill.
Tranquill hasn’t been a great run defender on the season but I do think that this number is too low based on the amount he will be on the field and the likely volume of rushes that Philadelphia will deploy. I would take Tranquill’s over at 8.5 tackles plus assists on Monday night at -110, playing this to -112.
Pick: Drue Tranquill Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-140)
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