Eagles vs Commanders Player Props: Curtis Samuel Pick for Monday Night Football
Greg Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Curtis Samuel.
Curtis Samuel Longest Reception
|Prop||Curtis Samuel Longest Reception — Under 18.5 Yards|
|Matchup||Eagles vs. Commanders|
|Day, Time||Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET|
Rookie Jahan Dotson is set to return for the Commanders tonight after missing the last five games due to a hamstring injury. In those five games, Curtis Samuel's average depth of target was 11 yards down the field. However, when Dotson was in the lineup from Weeks 1-4, Samuel's aDot was just 4.3 and Dotson's was 16.
I think we'll see Samuel's route tree return to what it was earlier in the season when Washington's offense was healthy. That also included the Commanders giving him 3-5 direct handoffs per game.
The Eagles defense ranks first in DVOA against the pass and has the best secondary in the NFL. Slot receiver have the "easier" matchup against Philly because that position avoids Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the outside. In the slot, Avonte Maddox is out and Josiah Scott is set to start.
The Eagles, though, have held slot receivers to a 58% catch rate, which is third lowest in the league. They've also allowed only three completions of 20 or more yards downfield to slot receivers this season.
I'm projecting Samuel's median in this market closer to 15.5. Each yard is worth 4-5%, so I'm giving him a 61-62% chance of staying under 18.5.