The Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight in the Week 5 edition of Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will stream on Prime Video.
The Cowboys are 8.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers on the spread (Cowboys -8.5), with an over/under of 48.5. The Cowboys are -500 on the moneyline and the Buccaneers are +385 underdogs.
Continue below for our Buccaneers vs Cowboys picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and player props galore for Jalon Daniels, Jake Ferguson, and Chris Godwin.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Picks, Props
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys Odds
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys Moneyline: Bucs +385, Cowboys -500
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys Spread: Bucs +8.5 (-105), Cowboys -8.5 (-115)
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys Total: 48.5 (-108o / -112u)
TNF odds via FanDuel — for the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 5 Odds & Action Report.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Spread Prediction
The Cowboys are set up to win with margin tonight on Thursday Night Football.
Their defense has yet to impress this season, but they are formidable in two key areas that will help them gain the lead and sustain it in this game.
The Cowboys have a respectable run defense, allowing just 4.0 yards per carry as they rank 12th in EPA/per rush. If they can put Buccaneers rookie signal-caller Jalon Daniels behind the sticks by stopping the run on early downs, their pressure rate of 38.3% (7th in the NFL) will create havoc to aid Dallas in getting off the field or generating potential turnover opportunities.
The defense is not the reason we are backing the Cowboys in this spot, however.
The Buccaneers defense has failed to disrupt quarterbacks this season and very few quarterbacks dissect a defense with more precision than Dak Prescott when he is operating from a clean pocket. Prescott completes more than 80% of his passes when he is not faced with pressure.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowless will likely send extra rushers to try and bother Prescott, but the Cowboys QB ranks fourth in completion percentage against the blitz.
To make matters worse for the Bucs defense, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Benjamin Morrison will be missing from a secondary that already has their hands full. In the Prescott era, the Cowboys have averaged 29.8 PPG when playing as home favorites.
Dallas has covered 64% of all games in AT&T stadium as favorites of a touchdown or more during Prescott’s tenure.
Tampa Bay may be desperately seeking its first win, but Daniels simply does not have the experience to keep up on the scoreboard with the high-powered Dallas offense.
I’d play this all the way up to -9.5 as I expect a double-digit margin of victory.
Pick: Cowboys -8.5 (-110); bet to -9.5
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
On one hand, I understand the logic of the total being fairly high for Thursday Night Football. Dallas plays fast,has the third highest PROE in the NFL, and one of the more explosive passing attacks with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens.
On the other hand, a total in the upper 40s in a Bucs game?
These Bucs, without Baker Mayfield? That feels like a bridge too far.
Tampa hasn’t topped 20 points since Week 1, and scored just 14 last week against the Packers in the first start with Jalon Daniels, with as many turnovers (two) as touchdowns scored.
While Daniels will, in theory, show improvement as he gains more experience, a short week into a road game in Dallas doesn’t leave much room for development for the undrafted rookie. The Cowboys are also much better at stopping the run than the pass, which should further limit the Bucs' ability to move the ball.
The only way this one goes over is if the Cowboys push the pace beyond what’s needed to win the game, and I feel it's much more likely they focus on running out the clock and getting to a long week of rest rather than run up the score for no reason.
The best under is at BetMGM where under 48.5 is at -108 odds, but it’s dropping fast. I’d take any number 48 or higher.
Pick: Under 48.5 (-108)
Jalon Daniels Longest Rush Props
Thursday Night Football doesn’t seem like the most exciting matchup on paper — but the Cowboys' lack of defense could make this interesting.
The Cowboys allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, and that included the most points just on the ground. They allowed eight QB rushing TDs — most in the league — and the third- most rushing yards (398).
This season, they’re on pace to allow more than double that total, having already allowed 50+ yards to Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson in three of their four games.
Enter Jalon Daniels, the undrafted rookie out of Kansas who should have plenty of room to run in this one — not to mention a game script that will likely have him dropping back to pass all night.
Daniels rushed eight times for 55 yards in his first NFL start and should have chances to escape the pocket and beat bad Cowboys linebackers downfield for some easy yardage — but books are onto this angle, with his rushing line already around 45 yards at most books, leaving little value.
I’m pivoting to longest rush.
Daniels had a 21-yard scamper last week en route to his juicy yardage total, and Dart, Daniels, and Jackson each had a 20-plus-yard run on their big days, too. I’m skipping the default over of 15.5 and going straight for the escalator: 20+ longest run at +208 (DK), 25+ at +452 (DK), and 30+ at +800 (Score) and hoping for a long one.
If Daniels does break a long one and hit over 45 yards, I think he could end up the game’s leading rusher, too. Tampa wants to get Sean Tucker and Kenneth Gainwell involved, and the Bucs' run defense is stout enough to limit Javonte Williams.
Could Jalon Daniels end up the game’s leading rusher? I’ll pay +500 to find out at DraftKings.
Picks:
- Jalon Daniels Longest Rush 20+ (+208; DraftKings)
- Jalon Daniels Longest Rush 25+ (+452; DraftKings)
- Jalon Daniels Longest Rush 30+ (+800; Score)
- Jalon Daniels Leading Rusher (+500; DraftKings)
Jake Ferguson Receiving Props
By Brandon Anderson
On the other side of the ball, we all know the Cowboys will score plenty of points as they have all season — and much of that should come through the air.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens get all the attention, but this looks like a great Jake Ferguson spot to me.
The Bucs ranked top seven in fantasy points allowed to tight ends in each of the last three seasons, a constant weakness for Todd Bowles' defense. They allowed 4+ catches to a TE in 14 of 21 games (67%) since the start of last season, and Ferguson had 4+ catches in 12 games during that stretch (57%) — over 3.5 receptions looks playable at +110 (BetMGM).
But in a game that should see lots of scoring, I’m looking for a Ferguson touchdown. The Bucs have allowed 15 TDs to tight ends since the start of last season (third most in the league), with at least one in over half the games.
The Bucs have also allowed multiple TDs to a TE three times. Ferguson had 8 TDs last season and already has three this year, including three games with multiple TDs since last season.
He’s become a favorite target of Dak Prescott in the red zone so let’s play Ferguson Anytime TD at 28% at Kalshi (+245) and sprinkle two TDs at 4% (+2400).
Picks:
- Jake Ferguson Over 3.5 Receptions (+110; BetMGM)
- Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (28% at Kalshi)
- Jake Ferguson 2+ Touchdowns (4% at Kalshi)
Chris Godwin Anytime TD Prop
Chris Godwin hasn't been a touchdown threat this season, but these odds are a bit too high given the spot.
Godwin and Emeka Egbuka are the clear WRs 1 and 2 for the Bucs, with Egbuka having the larger role but Godwin playing similar snaps.
With Jalon Daniels starting again, this offense takes a pretty big hit in the passing game. The Cowboys defense hasn't been great this season, but with Joey Porter Jr. on the field last week, they played better, and he should be in for a full workload tonight.
Porter should be mostly shadowing Egbuka, which means Godwin is likely to get significantly more volume. While the Bucs may struggle to score, I have the true odds here around +430.
Pick: Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown (+490)
