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The Green Bay Packers (1-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) will square off in Week 4 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Packers are 3.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers on the spread, with the over/under set at 38.5 total points. Green Bay is a -178 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Tampa Bay is a +150 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Packers vs Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 4.
My Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction
- Packers vs Buccaneers pick: Buccaneers Moneyline (+150)
My Packers vs. Buccaneers best bet is Tampa Bay moneyline (+150), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Packers vs Buccaneers Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 38.5 -115o / -105u | -178 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 38.5 -115o / -105u | +150 |
Packers vs Buccaneers NFL Week 4 Preview
Green Bay Packers Betting Preview: Terrible in the Trenches
The Packers are broken in the trenches. They are last in pass-block win rate at a pathetic 18% and in time to pressure allowed, forcing them to sign guys off the street — hello, Kevin Zeitler, Mekhi Becton, and Laken Tomlinson — to patch up the offensive line.
Without Josh Jacobs, the Packers have no rushing attack to lean on (ranking 30th in rush success rate). Jayden Reed is also out for the season due to the neck injury he suffered in Week 1.
Defensively, the Packers desperately need Micah Parsons to generate organic game-wrecking plays, and he remains sidelined.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is going to bring relentless blitz packages, and while Jordan Love is historically good against pressure, it's difficult for him to operate when his offensive line constantly collapses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview: The Unluckiest Team in the NFL
I track luck metrics very closely, and the Buccaneers have been the single unluckiest team in the NFL.
They suffered a historically bad -22 EPA turnover differential against the Bengals, followed by a game against the Browns that was completely derailed by a late lightning delay right before the two-minute warning.
Baker Mayfield has statistically been the worst starting quarterback in the league through three weeks. He's now reportedly sidelined for three weeks, with the Bucs making the switch to Jalon Daniels, who could potentially provide a spark of athleticism for this offense. At the very least, it can't be that much worse than Mayfield produced over the first three weeks.
Given the state of Tampa’s offensive line, Daniels’ ability to use his legs, extend plays, and scramble against man coverage is the high-variance element this offense needs.
Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Buccaneers are my moneyline underdog pick of the week.
This is an extremely desperate Tampa Bay team long overdue for positive variance in a warm October home game.
Todd Bowles will blitz Jordan Love and force him to make mistakes behind a turnstile offensive line. I also think Jalon Daniels’ rushing mobility will help generate just enough off-script plays to keep the Bucs in striking distance of the outright upset.
Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline (+150)
