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The New England Patriots (1-2) and Buffalo Bills (3-0) will meet today in NFL Week 4 action. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bills are 7-point favorites on the spread (Bills -7; -102), with the over/under set at 49.5. Buffalo is a -330 moneyline favorite while New England is a +265 underdog.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Bills prediction for today's AFC East clash.
Patriots vs Bills Predictions, Pick
- Patriots vs Bills pick: Bills -6.5 (-120)
My Patriots vs. Bills best bet is Buffalo to cover the spread (-6.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Patriots vs Bills Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -120 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -102 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
Patriots vs Bills Preview
Patriots Preview
The Patriots are suffering from a huge Super Bowl hangover. They are playing their second consecutive road game — marking their third away game in four weeks — which is a grueling travel stretch for a young roster.
The core problem, however, is the regression of Drake Maye from an MVP runner-up to a turnover prone disaster. He looks completely lost under center, visibly shook, and terrified to throw downfield.
Maye has posted a negative EPA on dropbacks in six consecutive games dating back to last year's playoffs. His footwork is broken and he generally looks like a baseball player with the yips. Not helping matters is the fact that the Patriots' rushing game is last in success rate (28%). Maye also has one of the worst receiver groups in the league with A.J. Brown unavailable.
Bills Preview
The Bills are an offensive machine. They lead the NFL in plays gaining 20+ yards and Josh Allen is playing at an elite MVP level.
Even with Allen slightly banged up, he remains an absolute goal-line monster (his anytime TD prop at -115 is a weekly must-play).
While Buffalo's secondary remains vulnerable, the defensive line — anchored by Greg Rousseau and DeWayne Carter — should easily dominate a beaten-up New England offensive line missing Mike Onwenu and relying on Greg Van Roten.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction: Buffalo With Margin
All the situational markers point to Buffalo.
The Patriots snuck up on the Bills in Orchard Park last year, so you know Josh Allen will be hyper-focused to avoid an upset.
Drake Maye doesn't appear to be capable of functionally operating an NFL offense against elite competition right now, and Buffalo has far too much firepower.
I'm laying the 6.5 points with the Bills.
Pick: Bills -6.5 (-120)
Patriots vs Bills Trends to Know
Patriots vs Bills Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Highmark Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 4 |
| Time: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
Patriots vs Bills Inactives
Patriots
CB Christian Gonzalez
DT Christian Barmore
CB Channing Canada
T Dametrious Crownover
TE Tanner Arkin
QB Behren Morton
Bills
WR Skyler Bell
S Jalon Kilgore
CB Christian Benford
LB Michael Danna
G Ar'maj Reed-Adams
T Jude Bowry
DE T.J. Sanders
