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The New England Patriots (1-2) and Buffalo Bills (3-0) will meet today in NFL Week 4 action. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bills are 6.5-point favorites on the spread, with the over/under set at 48.5 points. Buffalo is a -340 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New England is a +275 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Bills predictions for today's Week 4 AFC East clash.
My Patriots vs Bills Prediction
- Patriots vs Bills pick: Bills -6.5 (-120)
My Patriots vs. Bills best bet is Buffalo to cover the spread (-6.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Patriots vs Bills Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 +100 | 48.5 -114o / -106u | +275 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -120 | 48.5 -114o / -106u | -340 |
Patriots vs Bills NFL Week 4 Preview
New England Patriots Betting Preview: Super Bowl Hangover
The Patriots are suffering from a huge Super Bowl hangover. They are playing their second consecutive road game — marking their third away game in four weeks — which is a grueling travel stretch for a young roster.
The core problem, however, is the regression of Drake Maye from an MVP runner-up to a turnover prone disaster. He looks completely lost under center, visibly shook, and terrified to throw downfield.
Maye has posted a negative EPA on dropbacks in six consecutive games dating back to last year's playoffs. His footwork is broken and he generally looks like a baseball player with the yips. Not helping matters is the fact that the Patriots' rushing game is last in success rate (28%). Maye also has one of the worst receiver groups in the league with A.J. Brown unavailable.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview: The MVP Machine
The Bills are an offensive machine. They lead the NFL in plays gaining 20+ yards and Josh Allen is playing at an elite MVP level.
Even with Allen slightly banged up, he remains an absolute goal-line monster (his anytime TD prop at -115 is a weekly must-play).
While Buffalo's secondary remains vulnerable, the defensive line — anchored by Greg Rousseau and DeWayne Carter — should easily dominate a beaten-up New England offensive line missing Mike Onwenu and relying on Greg Van Roten.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction, Betting Analysis
All the situational markers point to Buffalo.
The Patriots snuck up on the Bills in Orchard Park last year, so you know Josh Allen will be hyper-focused to avoid an upset.
Drake Maye doesn't appear to be capable of functionally operating an NFL offense against elite competition right now, and Buffalo has far too much firepower.
I'm laying the 6.5 points with the Bills.
Pick: Bills -6.5 (-120)
