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Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 4 on Sunday, October 4.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 4.
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NFL Week 4 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Patriots vs. Bills
Through three games this year, the Patriots offense has been pitiful. They have only scored three total touchdowns on offense, and QB Drake Maye is becoming a bit of a liability on the turnover front.
That’s part of the reason why when looking at Patriots TD scorers, I want to avoid the deep targets like Romeo Doubs (+280) or Mack Hollins (+260) until we start to see Maye recapture that magic.
The one encouraging part about Maye is he technically leads the Patriots in red-zone carries inside the 20-yard line, while also ranking third amongst all quarterbacks in total scrambles.
The Pats need this game to go well on offense, and given all the turnovers and turmoil, I think New England will draw up some designed runs for Maye near the end zone to take advantage of the Bills’ defensive coverages.
It’s also a decent price for Maye’s TD odds in general. He was priced at +350 and +400 in two matchups against the Bills last season — and in Week 15, he scored twice.
The Bills aren’t hard to figure out on offense — it goes something like: Josh Allen hands off to James Cook. Josh Allen runs around and finds an open receiver. James Cook gets tackled inside the five-yard line. Josh Allen pounds the rock into the end zone.
With Allen having six rushing TDs through three games (two in each game), it almost feels logical to just take his 2+ TDs prop at +650.
Allen is on a generational run of rushing the football, and while the Bills can feel one-dimensional, I’m not convinced the Patriots defense is built to stop it.
If Allen is on another epic MVP run, this might be the last time we get his 2+ TDs prop at these odds before it gets steamed down.
VERDICT: Josh Allen 2+ TDs +600 | Drake Maye +500
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Cowboys vs. Texans
I don’t love talking down on my Cowboys, but a fact is a fact: their secondary is awful. Through three games, Dallas has allowed seven passing touchdowns, with three of those being scored by tight ends.
The arrival of CB Joey Porter Jr. might stop some of the bleeding, but we can’t expect much given he's been with the team less than week.
For the Texans, I’m showing almost no value on TE Dalton Schultz at +230. Although, I am showing some slight value on TE Foster Moreau at +800, even if his role is limited.
However, with how poor the Cowboys pass defense has been, I’m going to go back to WR Xavier Hutchinson.
WR1 Nico Collins is expected back from a hamstring injury, but I still expect Hutchinson to continue his WR2 role despite the extra playing time from WR Kayshon Boutte.
If the Cowboys sell out to stop Collins, C.J. Stroud will need to look elsewhere, and I think it’ll be Hutchinson who gets targeted in the end zone.
This will be my third week in a row giving out Cowboys WR Ryan Flournoy — it may be the last if we can’t connect this time.
Flournoy has been given ample opportunity to score and has made plays through three games. He led the Cowboys with four red-zone targets in Week 3 against the Ravens (two in the end zone) and is only playing a handful of snaps less than WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Flournoy is seeing a massive share of red-zone snaps, too.
Flournoy could also end up seeing the least difficult matchup from the Texans secondary, which means QB Dak Prescott will likely have to spread it around — and I think Flournoy finally becomes the beneficiary with a touchdown here.
VERDICT: Ryan Flournoy +400 | Xavier Hutchinson +380
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Jaguars vs. Bengals
Look, I’ll admit, my feelings were pretty hurt by QB Trevor Lawrence in Week 3. He would’ve scored with eight minutes to go in the game, but he took a knee at the one-yard line like a chump.
Clearly, I’m still bitter about it so I’m going to pass on Lawrence today.
Jaguars WR Parker Washington was my go-to TD scorer bet for the large part of last season because the general betting public hadn’t figured out how much he was involved in the offense.
Well, that changed in a hurry in the offseason with Washington getting a new contract and immediately scoring in two of three games to open the season.
That’s why I’m pivoting back to ol’ faithful in WR Jakobi Meyers at +255. He’s also scored in two of three games this season (same games as Washington), and he has really been a calming force for Jags receiver group since his arrival from the Raiders last season.
Meyers may be relegated to WR2 in this offense, but he’s technically played more snaps and run more routes than Washington — and he's made Brian Thomas Jr. a bit of an afterthought as the WR3.
I know this might sound ridiculous, but hear me out: Joe Burrow scores a touchdown against the Jaguars. I know, right? Blasphemy! But that’s the level of silliness we need at this point with how much the Bengals' top guys are being priced out in the TD market.
Burrow hasn’t really had to scramble this year, but I think the Jaguars may be a decent matchup for him to tuck and run because the Bengals have been one of the heavier pass-frequency teams this year.
The Jags know that too, and having to defend the likes of WRs Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins inside the red zone could lead to Burrow having to call his own number.
Another important factor here is price. At +950, this is far too high of a price tag for a game with a total hovering around 51.5 — and this is the type of matchup where Burrow could easily be in range for a QB sneak. I’ll take him as a decent long shot.
VERDICT: Joe Burrow +950 | Jakobi Meyers +250
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Rams vs. Eagles
I jokingly talk about how sportsbooks will occasionally post disrespectful TD odds for A1 talent in the NFL (Trey McBride, Justin Jefferson), but I still feel Eagles QB Jalen Hurts needs more respect in this market.
Last week against the Bears, he closed at +160 to score a TD, which was the highest his ATD odds had been since the 2021 season. Hurts went onto score against Chicago, and probably could’ve had two if it wasn't for some inexplicable time-management decisions by head coach Nick Sirianni.
Now we’re seeing the Eagles host the Rams, and Hurts is priced at +175 to score a TD — even as a Cowboys fan, I find these odds to be out of whack.
Hurts has been routinely near the top of the NFL for rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line and has averaged almost nine TDs per season since he’s become a starter.
The strength of the Rams defense right now is their secondary, and we just watched Bo Nix run for a TD against them last week.
I know the Eagles offense is still a work in progress, but if they get near the goal line, I expect them to go to the high-conversion play in the Tush Push.
I’m also laddering Hurts for 2+ TDs at +1500 as well.
Rams WR Puka Nacua is expected back this week (likely on a pitch count), but TE Terrance Ferguson is out with an ankle sprain, and TE Colby Parkinson is dealing with a shoulder injury.
Given how much the Rams like to play with two and three TE sets, TE3 Davis Allen should see a huge boost in snap share and red-zone snaps. We saw him score touchdowns early in the season last year when the Rams were dealing with injuries.
Given the odds discrepancy between Tyler Higbee (+310) and Allen (+900), I think it only makes sense to take a long shot in this spot.
VERDICT: Jalen Hurts +175 | Davis Allen +900
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Jets vs. Bears
It could be just a three-game trend or a permanent fixture, but WR Kalif Raymond looks reborn in Chicago.
As a Ben Johnson disciple with the Lions, Raymond has immediately fit into this offense as a third option for the Bears' receiving core.
However, I think I need one more game before truly buying into the Raymond-sance. So until then, I'm going to go with WR Luther Burden at +230.
Burden has seen a 32% first-read target share, leads the Bears with six red-zone targets, and he even saw a red-zone carry in Week 3. He’s electric when he touches the ball, and I don't think it matters if QB Tyson Bagent or QB Case Keenum starts; Burden is the new Amon-Ra St. Brown in Ben Johnson’s offense.
If you want to take Raymond instead, he’s also showing value in this matchup to score against a Jets defense that has allowed five passing TDs in their first three games of the season.
It’s a bit nerve-racking to bet on a guy to score his first TD of his career, but there’s one Jet right now that is in a perfect spot to get one, and that’s WR2 Isaiah Williams at +450.
While TE Kenyon Sadiq was the star of Week 3 (rightfully so), Williams was at least getting some cardio work in and ran a route on 95% of QB Geno Smith’s dropbacks. WR Adonai Mitchell is also out again this week.
If the Bears shift their coverage over to stop WR Garrett Wilson, Williams should be in line for a heavier target share, like in Week 2 when he had six targets (second on the team) and also logged a carry out of the backfield.
VERDICT: Luther Burden +230 | Isaiah Williams +450
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Cardinals vs. Giants
For the Giants, I’m going super simple and taking WR Malik Nabers. It’s a bit of a crapshoot when QB Jameis Winston is under center, but one thing we know he can do is push the ball downfield and take chances.
In Week 3, the passing game was completely shot due to inclement weather, with only short completions really having any bearing on the outcome. The weather looks clear for Week 4, and if Winston is given the green light, I think Nabers is in line to have a big game.
The opposing WR1 has scored against the Cardinals defense in each game so far (Ladd McConkey, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Mike Evans), and Arizona almost seems to prefer being in shootouts than ground-and-pound game scripts.
This has the making of a 2+ TDs game for Nabers, and I’m likely laddering his TD prop against a defense that hasn’t really stopped anyone yet this year.
Normally, this would be the spot where I’d hammer TE Trey McBride TD props into oblivion, but it looks like sportsbooks have cut off that pipeline for the foreseeable future.
I know WR Michael Wilson has been the far superior WR, but I’m finally ready to place a bet on WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at +350.
I’m not going to pretend like Harrison has been a good soldier in his time as a Cardinal — on some routes, he looks like he’s just mailing it in.
I think if you’re betting Harrison this week like I am, you’re doing it because he’s still running the second-most routes on the team, and you know this is the end of the line. He’s probably going to be traded by November, and the Cardinals may want to showcase him a bit to see if it will yield a bigger offer from a team that needs WR help.
If you prefer taking Wilson at +220 for this matchup, I’d understand the logic, but I’ll likely be circling him for upcoming matchups instead of this one.
VERDICT: Malik Nabers +210 | Marvin Harrison Jr. +380
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Packers vs. Buccaneers
The Bucs offense should take a massive shift with QB Baker Mayfield out this week, but facing a Packers defense that isn’t scaring anyone, I’m optimistic about backup QB Jalon Daniels to score a TD.
Daniels had rushing upside in his time at Kansas, and my Touchdown Show co-host Sean Koerner has compared him to a “taller version of Kyler Murray.”
Daniels has college highlights running all over the place, but I’m encouraged by his nose for the end zone. He can break away and score with speed, and he didn’t avoid the 1-yard plunge into the line of scrimmage for a score either.
The Packers currently rank 31st in defensive DVOA against the run. They rank last in rushing TDs allowed, and have yet to face a true dual-threat quarterback (Michael Penix Jr., Geno Smith, Kyler Murray for one play).
So, let’s take the undrafted rookie to get a score!
The passing game for the Packers has been one of the lone bright spots this season, and it might need to be working overtime in Tampa if their defense can’t get off the field.
As I already highlighted about the run game, this Packers defense is in shambles and has allowed a combined 94 points through three games.
It seems like every Packers receiver has had at least one moment to shine this season, but the one I’m circling back on is TE Tucker Kraft at +250.
Kraft is clearly still working his way back from the ACL injury he suffered last year, but this could be a decent get-right spot for him against a Bucs defense that has allowed two TDs to TEs so far this season, ranks 27th in defensive DVOA against TEs, and is much stronger against the run (second in rushing yards allowed, one rushing TD).
VERDICT: Tucker Kraft +250 | Jalon Daniels +350
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Titans vs. Ravens
I know everyone has Derrick Henry circled as their “free square” in their TD parlays given this is a “REVENGE GAME” and he has already scored six rushing TDs this season. But I think QB Lamar Jackson is the guy we want here.
Jackson scored in Week 1 on the exact play I envision when betting his TD prop: the Ravens get inside the 5-yard line, the defense is stacked to stop Henry, and Jackson casually walks in for an easy touchdown.
Henry is the ultimate lightning rod in those game scenarios, and we've seen his quarterbacks rack up rushing TDs for years by simply playing beside him.
While I’ll still take credit for this analysis if Jackson scores on a long run, the fact remains that the only other Raven I’m showing value on is TE Matthew Hibner (+1000) — and I’m dubious that he can score in back-to-back games.
All the TD value in this game is squarely on the Titans side — and for good reason. The offense has been a joke for the most part, and it seems like an uphill battle just to convert a first down.
Looking at the Ravens' defense for potential weaknesses, the defense has changed up a bit under head coach Jesse Minter compared to the Harbaugh regime. Baltimore tends to play more zone defense now, with an emphasis on two-high safety to negate the big play.
Despite that principle, the Ravens have been still susceptible to the deep ball, ranking bottom-five in defensive DVOA in that spot and 31st against WR1s.
That’s why I think this is the game where we finally take rookie WR Carnell Tate to score. He hasn’t scored yet this season, but Tate has easily been the main option for QB Cam Ward. Tate is running the most routes on the team, has the highest targets per route run, and has a 31% first-read target share.
If the Titans offense looks semi-competent this week, then I like Tate’s chances to finally break the plane.
VERDICT: Lamar Jackson +250 | Carnell Tate +380
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Broncos vs. 49ers
I know they had to go to Australia to open the year, but the 49ers opening month has been a cakewalk overall. This should be their first true test against a Broncos secondary that eliminates opposing wide receivers.
The injuries are also starting to pile up for San Francisco, which makes it a bit tougher to determine the TD value when snap shares/routes run see a massive shift depending on the personnel and matchup.
I’ll probably just run it back with TE Luke Farrell because he may need to be on the field quite a bit more for blocking if LT Trent Williams is compromised by his shoulder stinger.
TE1 George Kittle should still see the majority of targets, but with how much he’s produced so far, the Broncos may make it a priority to double-team Kittle and make the 49ers look elsewhere.
That’s where Farrell comes in. He has played the second-most snaps among 49ers TEs this year, and with how steamed it is at the top for 49ers TD scorers, I’d rather take a long shot and pray than bank on WR Deebo Samuel or WR Mike Evans, who could leave with an injury at any time.
For the Broncos, I’m going to keep rolling with WR Courtland Sutton. He hasn’t scored yet this year, but Sutton still has WR1 metrics — he leads the team in total routes run and snaps played.
Sutton is also the only Bronco to see a red-zone target and an end-zone target in each game. He came really close to scoring in Week 3.
If you prefer to take Jaylen Waddle here, I'm totally fine with that, but the Broncos’ game plan seems to indicate they are keen on making sure Sutton is an end zone threat.
VERDICT: Courtland Sutton +250 | Luke Farrell +1000
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Chiefs vs. Raiders
We bet on Brock Bowers last week thinking this was an upside play and trying to get ahead of the market. Well, it turns out we were WAY ahead of the market, as the Raiders gave Bowers the Trey McBride-treatment and spammed him for 10 targets.
It was hard to tell how his knee was going to look coming off the surgery, but Bowers looked dominant as ever, and we’re still getting +200 for him? Lock that in, set it, forget it.
I’m not in love with the passing options for Patrick Mahomes in this matchup.
I think the Chiefs will continue to rely heavily on the run, while sprinkling in quick passes to TE Travis Kelce or WR Rashee Rice.
With both of those guys hovering around +150, I say we just rely on Mahomes to run around, make plays and scramble for a touchdown.
The Raiders have been getting a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season (fifth in pressure rate) without using the blitz, and those splits tend to lead to more rushing for Mahomes, who’s scramble rate is higher when seeing pressure and not blitzed.
Mahomes already has five red-zone carries this year through three games, and we all saw him score the first touchdown of the game against the Broncos in Week 1.
This game has higher stakes than people might realize within the division. So, after coming off a bleh matchup against the Dolphins, expect Mahomes to treat it like a playoff game and potentially scramble all over the place for a touchdown.
VERDICT: Brock Bowers +200 | Patrick Mahomes +400
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Chargers vs. Seahawks
Another Seahawks game, another week of me betting TE AJ Barner to score a touchdown. He finally saw a huge uptick in targets this past week with nine targets — and two of them came in the end zone.
I know WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to see close to a 40% target share, and I don’t care. I can’t pass on Barner at this price when he may as well be the WR2 in this offense with how many snaps and routes he gets.
And, of course, there’s always the chance of the Seahawks running the “tush push” with Barner in our back pocket if they get an opportunity to punch it in near the goal line.
This is likely going to be another rough matchup for the Chargers, but as long as they have QB Justin Herbert, the passing upside is always there for his receivers. This week, it’s WR Tre Harris we are targeting at +550.
WR1 Ladd McConkey had a foot injury pop up on Thursday that may keep him sidelined (or at least compromised), while WR Quentin Johnston may end up lining up outside with CB Devon Witherspoon, which means I want no part of that matchup.
The Seahawks play the third-highest rate of zone, and so far this year, Harris leads the Chargers in targets per route run against zone, and he also led them in targets per route run in Week 3 against the Bills while also seeing three red-zone targets.
If McConkey gets ruled out, look for these odds to plummet closer to +350.
VERDICT: Tre Harris +500 | AJ Barner +280
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Dolphins vs. Vikings
There was optimism for Vikings WR Justin Jefferson to play this week after suffering an ankle injury, but he has been ruled out.
That’s likely why you’ll likely see WR2 Jordan Addison at +125-ish right now. I'm not interested in that play as we finally have an opportunity to bet on one of my favorite TD scorers of all time in WR Jauan Jennings.
Jennings hasn’t been used much this year with Jefferson demanding such a high target share, but we saw Jennings' routes-run rate nearly double once Jefferson left the game against the Bucs.
If you recall, Jennings was an absolute stud last year with the 49ers, scoring nine TDs with eight of them coming over the second half of the season.
Jennings was a red-zone machine last year, and he should be a decent target for QB Kyler Murray near the end zone as well.
With such a low total, and the Dolphins on the road to face a Brian Flores-led defense that blitzes 66% of the time, oddsmakers aren’t giving much hope for Dolphins TD scorers.
The only one I’d lean to, but don’t like it enough to make official, is TE Greg Dulcich at +700. He’s the TE1 in this offense that is void of true high-end pass catchers, and he technically leads the team with two red-zone targets.
I’m confident that QB Malik Willis will throw at least one touchdown pass, but I am not confident it will be more than one. So for that reason, I’ll likely pass on the Dolphins this week.
VERDICT: Jauan Jennings +400 | Lean to Greg Dulcich +700, but pass on Dolphins
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