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The Indianapolis Colts (1-2) and Washington Commanders (1-2) will meet in the first NFL London Game of the season this morning. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. The game will broadcast live on NFL Network.
The Colts are 4.5-point favorites over the Commanders on the spread, with the total set at over/under 46.5 points. Indianapolis is listed as a -225 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Washington is a +188 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Colts vs Commanders predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 4.
Colts vs Commanders Prediction, Picks
- Colts vs Commanders picks: Colts -3.5 (-110) | Josh Downs Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
My Commanders vs. Colts best bets are Indianapolis to cover the spread and Josh Downs to go over 62.5 receiving yards. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Colts vs Commanders Odds for NFL London Game
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -106 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -114 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +188 |
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Preview
Colts Betting Preview: Favorites Dominate International Games
It's our first Sunday morning international game of the year, and you know we have to bet it. I always start my handicap by looking at the favorite in international games.
If you remove the Jaguars from the sample (who basically treat London as a home game), international favorites are 36-8 straight up (82%) and 29-15 ATS (66%). It makes perfect sense: on a neutral field, just back the better team.
The Colts are the vastly better team, hidden by a brutal opening schedule. They got crushed by the Ravens, but played the Chiefs and Texans tough in a pair of games separated by a field goal.
The Colts have the best run-blocking offensive line in the league, the best unit on the field (the offense), and a big special teams advantage.
This will be a much easier test for Shane Steichen's offense. Steichen thrives early in games, and Washington's defense is the weakest unit on the field.
Commanders Betting Preview: Last Week's Win Was a Fluke
The Commanders currently rank No. 1 in run defense DVOA but No. 29 against the pass. So, is Washington's run defense legit? Tough to tell.
Seattle can't run on anyone, and both Dallas and Philly had banged-up offensive lines (and Saquon Barkley still ripped off 15 carries for 83 yards against Washington).
The Commanders are vastly overrated following a fluky win over Seattle, a game where Seattle dominated with a 51% to 33% success rate advantage and almost 7.0 yards per play, but lost due to four turnovers.
I took Colts -3 on Sunday night. I don't love having to give the hook at -3.5, but I make this line -5.5.
Colts vs Commanders Picks, Betting Analysis
Both sides should be able to pass the ball some. The Colts' pass defense is beatable, but can Marcus Mariota exploit it?
Terry McLaurin's numbers with Mariota were poor last year. Stefon Diggs could be a sneaky look for any Anytime TD at +275 with McLaurin banged up.
For yardage props, I'm looking at Josh Downs. He is an advanced metrics darling who is finally shining as the WR1 for Indy with Michael Pittman gone and Alec Pierce hurt. Downs has seen nine and 11 targets over the last two games, posting lines of 7/72 and 5/77.
Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, giving up massive days to CeeDee Lamb (8/153/2), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (10/128/2), and DeVonta Smith (3/53).
Brandon Anderson's NFL London Game Best Bets
- Colts -3.5 (-110)
- Josh Downs Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
How to Watch Colts vs Commanders: TV Channel, Start Time
| Location: | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 4 |
| Time: | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NFL Network |
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