The Indianapolis Colts (3-0) and Los Angeles Rams (2-1) will face off in NFL Week 4. Kickoff is set for in 4:05 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Rams are 3.5-point favorites on the spread (Rams -3.5), with the over/under set at 49.5 total points. Los Angeles is a -190 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while the Indianapolis is +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Colts vs. Rams predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 28.
Colts vs Rams Prediction
- Colts vs Rams pick: Rams -3.5 (-110)
My Colts vs Rams best bet is on Los Angeles to cover the spread. with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Colts vs Rams Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Colts vs Rams NFL Week 4 Preview
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
The Colts made a controversial decision entering the season in opting to roll with Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback, instead of offering former fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson playing time to further his development at the NFL level.
As Indianapolis has gotten off to a 3-0 start with Jones near the top of the league in most statistical categories and first in QBR, it's obviously a decision that has paid off to this point.
One major argument against the legitimacy of the Colts and Jones is the fact that they have played a soft schedule, with home wins over the Dolphins and Broncos, as well as a win on the road over the Titans.
Those three teams have played to a combined record of 1-8 this season, and PFF ranks the Colts' schedule as the seventh easiest in the league so far.
All of those teams have been somewhat shaky defensively: the Dolphins have allowed 383.3 yards per game this season (27th), the Broncos have allowed 307.3 (21st) and the Titans have allowed 379.9 (26th).
In terms of defensive EPA this season, the Dolphins hold the second-worst rating in the NFL, while the Titans have not been much better, ranking fifth-worst.
Based on preseason expectations, it's no surprise that the Broncos defense has been strong in terms of EPA, and Jones certainly deserves some credit for his extremely sharp Week 2 performance versus a strong Broncos secondary, going 23-for-34 with 316 passing yards.
The Colts' well-balanced offensive attack ranks third best in EPA this season, but they will still have much to prove offensively once they enter the tougher portion of their schedule.
Though a soft schedule has certainly contributed to Jones' turnaround relative to his level of play with the Giants, the Colts have provided him with a drastically better recipe for success. PFF ranks the Colts' offensive line as the fifth-best unit in the league, led by Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann.
The strong balance of the Colts offense has also made life much easier for Jones as Jonathan Taylor has gotten off to a tremendous start, powering the Colts to 153.3 rushing yards per game.
Two extremely positive game scripts have certainly helped Taylor rack up stats, but he has generated 1.01 yards above expected per attempt this season, and ranks first in yards after contact.
Taylor has rushed versus a stacked box just 16.67% of the time this season despite two of the Colts' three matchups providing game scripts favorable for rushing.
That could be taken as a credit to Jones's passing efficiency, but it would still not be surprising to see Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula lean more heavily into stopping the rushing attack in this matchup.
The Rams offense will provide the toughest test to date for the Colts defensively, given that they have faced Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, and Cam Ward in the first three weeks of the season. In offensive EPA this season, the Titans offense ranks 32nd, the Broncos rank 21st and the Dolphins rank 18th.
The Colts rank second in the NFL in DVOA this season, though, so it's certainly not entirely fair to pin their defensive success on facing a modest schedule of opposing offenses.
CB Kenny Moore has officially been ruled out of this contest with an Achilles injury, which is a significant loss given that Moore ranks among the league leaders in many coverage metrics.
Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview
The Rams will be desperate to bounce back Sunday after an ugly collapse last week versus the Eagles, a game they led 26-3 early in the third quarter before providing one of the worst bad beats in recent memory to spread bettors.
While a 2-1 start, including a date in Philadelphia, is nothing to be too concerned with, the Rams are digging an early hole in an NFC West that has seen 49ers and Seahawks get off to 3-0 and 3-1 starts, respectively.
This home matchup should draw plenty of urgency from McVay, who is 17-11-2 against the spread following a loss during his career tenure with the Rams.
After a strong finish to the 2024-25 season, Matthew Stafford and the Rams have gotten off to a solid offensive start this season.
Stafford ranks 12th in the NFL in QBR, while Kyren Williams has led a rushing attack that has averaged 127 yards per game. They rank 11th in offensive EPA and third in explosive play rate.
What the Rams did offensively in the first half of last week's matchup versus the Eagles deserves plenty of credit, and sagging into a passive in-game strategy both offensively and defensively has rightfully drawn some criticism of McVay.
While the Rams' game management was a concern in Philadelphia, two blocked field goals were also a huge part of the horrid collapse, but those are two concerns that can logically be improved moving forward.
While the Colts rank second in net yards per play, they are still only one spot above the Rams in that metric, and much of the Colts' edge comes down to the offensive side of the ball.
The Rams feature a strong pass rush, which could force Jones to be less efficient and limit Taylor's effectiveness on early downs.
Los Angeles currently ranks ninth in pass-rush win rate and features a defensive line that was ranked ninth by PFF entering the season.
The Rams rank third in defensive EPA this season, and they have held their opponents to the seventh-lowest third-down conversion rate.
The Rams are in good shape from a health perspective entering this matchup.
Based on McVay's comments Friday, Rob Havenstein is expected to play, while Davante Adams also sounds to be trending towards playing despite his questionable tag.
Colts vs Rams Prediction, Betting Analysis
All of the Colts' underlying metrics are quite impressive and suggest they are fully worthy of a 3-0 start.
It's fairly shocking to see Jones playing at such a high level, and he deserves plenty of credit, while offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, the offensive line and Jonathan Taylor have also made life much easier.
Things could go less smoothly for the Colts offensively in this matchup versus a high-quality Rams defense, which should be able to suppress Taylor more effectively as well as force Jones into more hurried throws.
Los Angeles should have a good chance of forcing a tougher game script for Jones and preventing Taylor from authoring another huge offensive performance.
The Rams' well-balanced offense should be able to build on a strong performance versus the Eagles.
While statistically they have been outperformed by the Colts so far this season, I'm not sure that will be the case moving forward.
Moore's absence should help Puka Nacua power an effective passing game, and hopefully, McVay will learn from last week's mistakes if the Rams can stake an early lead.
From a statistical perspective, I can see the case for the Colts here, but I'm pretty high on the Rams and not sold on the Colts.
I see some value in backing the Colts to cover the spread at -3.5, and would be quite high on them if -3 becomes available by game-time.
Pick: Rams -3.5 (-110)
Spread
Backing the Rams to cover the spread at -3.5 is my favorite play for this matchup.
Moneyline
Given my position on the Rams to cover, I would also lean toward the Rams in terms of betting the moneyline.
Over/Under
A high total of 49.5 looks fair to me for this matchup. So, I don't see value in betting the O/U.
