The Indianapolis Colts (8-5) and Seattle Seahawks (10-3) will meet in NFL Week 15 on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Seahawks are 13.5-point favorites over the Colts on the spread (Seahawks -13.5), with the over/under set at 41.5 total points. Seattle is a -1000 to win outright on the moneyline, while Indianapolis is +650 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Colts vs. Seahawks predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, December 14.
Colts vs Seahawks Prediction, Picks
- Colts vs Seahawks pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 2.5 Receptions (-125)
My Seahawks vs. Colts best bet is on Jonathan Taylor over 2.5 receptions, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Colts vs Seahawks Odds for NFL Week 15
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks NFL Preview
What was once an extremely promising season in Indianapolis has suddenly hit dire straits, as after starting 7-1, it has now lost four of the last five games and holds just a 22% chance of making the playoffs per consensus betting odds.
Those odds are obviously taking into account the fact that with Daniel Jones out for the season with an Achilles injury and Anthony Richardson also sidelined, Philip Rivers is expected to start Sunday's matchup at age 44 and coming off a near six-year hiatus.
From a betting perspective, this is a unique matchup, as oddsmakers and recreational bettors alike are taking their best guess at how Rivers will be able to perform with no real level of certainty.
Obviously, the general consensus is that Rivers and the Colts offense will struggle to move the ball on the road in this tough matchup, given that the Seahawks offer one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The eight-time Pro Bowler is highly familiar with Shane Steichen and the Colts offense, and Steichen noted this week that it is much the same offense that Rivers had mastered previously.
Rivers has honed a reputation for being a highly intelligent QB throughout his likely Hall-of-Fame career, and it seems unlikely that he will be hindered by a lack of familiarity with the Colts' playbook.
Rivers noted this week that he never really leaned on his legs to find success anyway when questioned about a potential lack of mobility.
Still, that doesn't necessarily mean it won't make it even more difficult if he is less mobile than he was previously, and the Seahawks rank fourth with a QB pressure rate of 39.9% this season, while the Colts rank 13th in pressure rate allowed.
It was confirmed on Friday that starting right tackle Braden Smith will be unavailable due to a concussion, which will make it that much tougher for the offensive line to insulate Rivers effectively.
A potential lack of arm strength will be another concern for Rivers, and you'd have to imagine the Seahawks will be game-planning, looking to sit on short and intermediate routes until proven the need to change that philosophy.
From a Colts' perspective, they will certainly strive to establish the running game with Jonathan Taylor to try and alleviate some pressure off of Rivers.
Indianapolis ranks sixth in rushing yards per game this season and, per Sharp Football Analysis, ninth in yards before contact per RB rush.
Over the last four games, Taylor holds an EPA of just -0.052 per rushing attempt, and compared to earlier on in the year, the Colts have had a drastically tougher time running the football.
Over the last five games, the Colts' defense ranks 16th in DVOA and has faced a tougher workload with the offense operating far less efficiently in that span.
DT DeForest Buckner's absence has also factored into the Colts' modest defensive results of late, and it has been confirmed that the three-time Pro Bowler will be unavailable for this matchup, while Sauce Gardner will also remain sidelined for this matchup.
The Seahawks are currently priced as the second-favorite to win the Super Bowl at +700; a price that would certainly come down if they can come back and win the NFC West and secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC — which is certainly possible given that they will play head-to-head versus the division-leading Rams next week.
Seattle's defense ranks third in EPA/play allowed this season and second in points allowed per drive.
As we touched on earlier, the Seahawks have gotten pressure 39.9% of the time, despite only blitzing 21.5% of the time.
Aden Durde's defense will likely try to stack the box consistently in this matchup to try and keep Taylor in check and see if Rivers can beat his strong secondary.
Aside from a tough performance in their critical Week 11 loss versus the Rams, Sam Darnold has been rock-solid this season with a fifth-ranked passer rating of 103.8.
Seattle's offense ranks 13th in EPA per play, but it does rank first in explosive play rate, and the addition of Rashid Shaheed has made the Seahawks' passing game even more threatening.
The Seahawks rank 18th in rushing yards per game, and the Colts have defended the rush much more effectively than the pass this season.
Given the near two-touchdown spread, this obviously suggests a potentially run-heavy game script for Seattle, but it would likely be wise not to get too passive early on, and Klint Kubiak has been an excellent play-caller so far this season.
Colts vs Seahawks Betting Predictions, Analysis
It would be a lovable story to see Rivers come out of retirement and lead the Colts to a win after only a few practices, but all of the logic certainly dictates that is highly unlikely given how exceptional the Seahawks defense has been of late.
Oddsmakers certainly aren't counting on much from Rivers in this matchup.
He's currently priced at +130 to throw one touchdown pass, which, by a fairly wide margin, is the longest price for any QB to throw one pass in Week 15 (Brady Cook is second at -135).
Rivers also holds a betting line of just 148.5 passing yards in a game where his side is nearly a two-touchdown underdog.
If you are a believer that Rivers can move the ball somewhat effectively in this game, parlaying Rivers to throw for 150 yards and 1 TD prices out at +180, and some bettors will certainly bet into the volatility of this spot by targeting Rivers in alternative markets.
My personal favorite bet from this matchup is backing Taylor to record over 2.5 receptions at a price of -125.
Taylor has recorded over 2.5 receptions in eight of 13 games played this season, and though this matchup means fewer plays on offense than usual for the Colts, Rivers also may look to check it down to Taylor at a higher rate than we saw with Daniel Jones under center.
Colts vs Seahawks Best Bet
- Jonathan Taylor Over 2.5 Receptions (-125)
Colts vs Seahawks Betting Trends
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
