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Justin Watson Players Props: Chiefs vs Chargers Bet for Sunday Night Football

Justin Watson Players Props: Chiefs vs Chargers Bet for Sunday Night Football article feature image
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Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Watson.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Justin Watson Receiving Yards

Prop Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115; playable to 25.5 yards)
Matchup Chiefs vs. Chargers
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
Best Book BetMGM

Patrick Mahomes continues to solidify his brilliance this season. Despite almost his entire wide receiver room turning over in the offseason, the former MVP hasn’t missed a beat. In fact, without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes is spreading the ball around even more than usual.

Nine pass-catchers have accrued at least 100 yards through the air for the Chiefs this season. While Justin Watson is toward the bottom of that list, I love him to step in and fill a big role tonight.

Both Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster are sidelined with injuries. With Hardman out last week, Watson saw his snap share sky-rocket, as he ran a route on 29 of Mahomes’ 40 dropbacks. His 73% route share was easily the highest of the season.

While increased playing time translated into only 12 yards, I like Watson to produce a bit more. After making a few splashy plays last week, Kadarius Toney will undoubtedly draw plenty of attention, as will the Chiefs’ best pass-catcher, Travis Kelce.

There have been 44 instances of a Chiefs player picking up at least 24 receiving yards over their nine games – averaging to almost six per contest. The Chargers have been league average defending the pass, ranking 16th in Football Oustider’s DVOA metric since Week 5. With the focus on Kelce and Toney, I expect the complementary receivers to have a big game.

I have Watson’s yardage projected in the low-30s. I’d play this line confidently up to over 25.5 receiving yards.

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