Bengals vs Browns Player Props: Expert Fading Kareem Hunt on Monday Night
Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Kareem Hunt.
Kareem Hunt Rushing Yards
|Prop||Kareem Hunt Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-135)|
|Matchup||Bengals vs. Browns|
|Day, Time||Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET|
The Browns have been phasing Hunt out of their offense over the past two games. It could be because they’re trying to preserve him for a trade, similar to what we’ve seen with James Robinson and Cam Akers in recent weeks.
There’s a chance Hunt continues to only see 4-5 carries tonight, which would make this number very difficult to clear. Even if he gets closer to double-digit carries, though, there are a few factors that could prevent him from clearing this number.
1) The Bengals defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the run.
2) Browns RG Wyatt Teller is going to be out, which is a massive blow to the offensive line since he’s an elite run blocker.
3) The Browns have been using 11 personnel (three WRs) at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL over the past two weeks. That trend should continue tonight, especially without TE David Njoku. The increased use of that personnel is good news for Nick Chubb, who leads the league with 7.7 yards per rush in 11 personnel this year. Kareem Hunt, however, has averaged 2.8 yards per carry in such situations, ranking 42nd of 43 RBs who have seen at least 20 carries in 11 personnel this season.
I’m projecting Hunt closer to 30.5 rush yards tonight.