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The Miami Dolphins (0-3) and Minnesota Vikings (3-0) meet in NFL Week 4 today. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Vikings are 10.5-point favorites over the Dolphins on the spread, with the over/under set at 38.5 total points. Minnesota is a -650 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Miami is a +480 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs Vikings predictions for Sunday, October 4.
My Dolphins vs Vikings Prediction
- Dolphins vs Vikings pick: Dolphins +10.5 (-105)
My Dolphins vs Vikings best bet is Miami to cover the spread (+10.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Dolphins vs Vikings Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 38.5 -114o / -106u | +480 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 38.5 -114o / -106u | -650 |
Dolphins vs Vikings NFL Week 4 Preview
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview: The Floor of the Market
Let’s not sugarcoat it: the Dolphins are probably the worst team in the NFL.
They do absolutely nothing well: special teams are a disaster, Bobby Slowik's playcalling has been uninspired, and Malik Willis holds the ball far too long against pressure. They also lost De'Von Achane for the season because of a torn ACL.
To make matters worse, they have to go up against their former head coach, Brian Flores, who is now calling the defense for Minnesota.
Flores is actively suing Miami and will undoubtedly be out for blood, dialing up relentless blitzes to put Willis in a blender.
So … why on earth am I betting them?
Because they are catching double digits in a prime buy-low spot at the absolute floor of the market.
Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview: The Luckiest Team in the NFL
The Vikings are sitting at an undefeated 3-0, but they are undeniably the luckiest team in football — actually, far and away the luckiest, according to our NFL Luck Rankings.
Minnesota was outgained by 200 yards against Green Bay, survived goal-line fumbles and a blocked kick against Chicago, and posted a putrid 21% success rate last week against Tampa Bay.
The reality is the Vikings' offense is completely broken. They are last in the league with a 32% overall success rate and a 33% passing success rate. They haven't reached 250 total yards in a game this season, averaging a putrid 137 passing yards per game—the worst mark in the NFL since 2003.
With Carson Wentz back on the sidelines, they have Kyler Murray playing in a system that doesn't fit his skill set, and Justin Jefferson is likely sitting out with an ankle injury before the bye week.
Dolphins vs Vikings Prediction, Betting Analysis
I am plugging my nose and taking the Dolphins to cover.
My core betting philosophy revolves around buying at the absolute floor and selling at the ceiling. The market is offering double digits on the spread with a desperate Miami team against a fraudulent Vikings squad whose offense is statistically one of the worst in the league and missing its top weapon.
Even if the Vikings' defense dominates Willis, Minnesota's broken offense probably won't be able to build enough of a margin to cover a double-digit spread.
I think Miami covers the inflated number here.
Pick: Dolphins +10.5 (-105)
