Best Bets for Patriots’ Weeks 1 & 2 Matchups Following Cam Newton Signing


Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Cam Newton

Cam Newton officially has a home for the 2020-21 NFL season. The 2015 league MVP will play for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, filling the void left after Tom Brady’s departure to Tampa Bay.

Quarterbacks Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer are still on New England’s roster, but Newton should earn the starting gig assuming he’s healthy again.

The upgrade with Cam under center has already had an effect on the Patriots’ Super Bowl chances, but there are also implications for New England’s odds for its Week 1 and Week 2 matchups against Miami and Seattle, respectively.

Let’s look at Patriots vs. Dolphins and Patriots at Seahawks odds and spreads, then compare them to our NFL model’s projections to see how bettors can take advantage right now.

New England Patriots Weeks 1-2 Odds, Betting Picks

Odds as of June 29 and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Week 1: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Sept. 13 | 1 p.m. ET

Spread: Patriots -6.5
Projected spread: Patriots -5.8

Our model sees the Patriots as just under 6-point favorites against the Dolphins, suggesting the value lies with Dolphins at +6.5.

In addition, should Cam ultimately not be healthy enough to play Week 1 or outright fail to earn the starting job, New England would certainly become a shorter favorite in this matchup with Stidham or Hoyer under center, making Miami +6.5 an even better value.

PICK: Dolphins +6.5
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Over/under: 43.5
Projected over/under: 43

Forty-three is an important number in NFL over/under betting, so there is slight value on the under here, but it’s certainly not the biggest edge bettors should target among New England’s Week 1 and Week 2 games.

PICK: Under 43.5
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Week 2: New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks 

Sept. 20 | 8:20 p.m. ET

Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Projected spread: Pick’em

Three is the most important number in all of NFL betting, so it’s easy to understand why getting the Patriots off that key number at +3.5 is such a massive edge for a game our model expects to be a pick’em.

PICK: Patriots +3.5
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CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

Over/under: 44
Projected over/under: 46.2

The Patriots-Seahawks Week 2 total offers the better of the two over/under bets, with the value falling on the over.

PICK: Over 44
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CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

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