Giants-Eagles Betting Preview: Bank on a Shootout in Philly?
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham (13) during second half against New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium.
Betting odds: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -4.5
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
>> All odds as of Saturday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: The market is split on this game, with bettors unsure of whether to buy low on the reigning Super Bowl champs or fade them given their recent struggles.
The line at Pinnacle has been quite unstable, opening at -5.5, dropping to -4.5, going up to -6 and returning back to the opener of -5.5 as of Saturday (check out the live data here).
It will take some sharper action to move the line closer to the key numbers of -3 or -7. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The Giants have won back-to-back games for the first time since Week 15 of the 2016 season. When Eli Manning is on a winning streak, he’s 7-14 against the spread vs. division opponents in the next game, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing
John is right: Manning is the least-profitable quarterback in this spot, losing bettors 7.2 unit.
And you want to hear something weird? When Manning faces a non-divisional opponent while on a winning streak, the Giants are 27-16 ATS, profiting bettors 10.6 units.
That makes him the NFL’s third-most profitable quarterback in that spot, behind just Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Go figure. — Evan Abrams
The Eagles lost 48-7 to the Saints in Week 11. There is no shame losing to a good team, in fact it has been profitable to bet teams after a blowout loss to a quality opponent. — Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Eagles secondary
When wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. played the Eagles in Week 6, he disappointed with a 6-44-0 performance on 10 targets as the Giants endured a 34-13 loss to their divisional foes.
But this Eagles secondary is drastically different than the one he faced six weeks ago.
No. 1 cornerback Ronald Darby (knee) is on injured reserve. No. 2 cornerback Jalen Mills (foot) hasn’t played since Week 8. No. 3 cornerback Sidney Jones (hamstring) returned to action in Week 11 after missing Weeks 7-10, but he left the game early after aggravating his injury. And backup corners Rasul Douglas (knee) and Avonte Maddox (knee) are both questionable.
On top of that, free safety Rodney McLeod (knee, IR) is out, so the Eagles are more exploitable than they usually are deep.
No NFL wide receiver in history has more receptions or receiving yards through 57 games than Beckham’s 382 and 5,356.
Whatever the yardage prop ends up being for Beckham, it will be too low. — Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Giants
The only Giants player listed on the injury report is defensive end Kerry Wynn (concussion). The Eagles will welcome back defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan (back), but are expected to again be without Darren Sproles (hamstring).
As Freedman noted above, their secondary is an absolute mess, with cornerbacks Maddox (leg), Jones (hamstring), and Mills (foot) could join Ronald Darby (knee, IR) on the bench. Middle linebacker Jordan Hicks (calf) is also banged up.
DFS edge: Odell Beckham leads the Giants with a 29.5% target share, and he could be in an eruption spot against a depleted secondary.
His 30-point projected ceiling in our FantasyLabs Models leads all receivers on Sunday’s main slate. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Over 47
We know the Eagles can score on the Giants, putting up 34 on New York a few weeks ago in the Meadowlands. They might not quite match that again on Sunday, but playing the NFL’s worst pass rush, Carson Wentz will have all day to pick apart an underperforming Giants secondary.
I expect this to be Golden Tate’s breakout game for Philly; he’s had a few weeks to get used to playing with Wentz and now faces the 28th-ranked defense in DVOA at defending slot receivers.
The Giants’ terrible offensive line is usually a concern for Eli Manning & Co., but it shouldn’t be a massive disadvantage against an Eagles team that ranks just 20th in adjusted sack rate.
If Eli has time to throw, Odell Beckham should have an absolutely massive game against a banged up Eagles secondary that just got roasted for 14 catches, 249 yards and 2 TDs combined from the Saints’ Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith.
Odell has better big-play ability than Tre’Quan and is just as proficient of a red-zone weapon as Thomas, so this is a nightmare matchup for the Eagles in every sense.
The kicker? Both of the Eagles and Giants defenses are falling off a cliff, ranking 26th and 27th in Weighted DVOA, which factors in recent results more than games from the early season. Is it injuries? A lack of motivation? Probably all of the above.
Given how these two teams match up, I thought this total would fall somewhere in the 50s. Take that extra few points of value and run. — Scott Miller
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.