We're finally at that special time of the NFL season — the business end. And with only three games left, it means every single second matters to us as bettors.
First up on Sunday's NFL Conference Championship slate is the 49ers' trip to Philadelphia, where they take on a brilliant Eagles team. There are some great angles to tackle, so let's get into my favorite player prop picks for the NFC Title Game.
Brock Purdy
Under 222.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Brock Purdy's fairytale story has been incredible to watch over the past few weeks, but like all good stories, it must come to an end.
The last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft has been impressive since Week 14, but this Eagles team is no joke and I expect their defense to cause him struggles.
There's no better pass defense in the league as the Eagles ranked first in the regular season in pass DVOA. In the Divisional Round against the Giants, they surrendered just 135 passing yards to Daniel Jones.
Through eight games, Purdy has gone over this line of 222.5 passing yards on just three occasions. I just can't see it happening here against a defense of this quality.
Pick: Brock Purdy Under 218.5 Passing Yards |
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Jalen Hurts
Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
Needless to say, the 49ers have a great defense of their own (No. 1 in overall defensive DVOA), and their front is arguably the best in the league.
Hurts only rushed for 34 yards in last week's victory over the Giants, but he had no need to put himself in harm's way in a blowout game. Remember he's not far removed from the shoulder ailment that cost him games during the regular season.
Now, with the season on the line, you can expect Hurts to put the team on his back as he has done his whole career. He's going to use one of his best attributes to help the Eagles secure a Super Bowl berth.
I expect the 49ers to generate pressure and force Hurts out of the pocket, where he'll get the yards required to hit the over on his rushing yards line.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 46.5 Rushing Yards |
Jalen Hurts
Over 0.5 Interceptions (+108; BetRivers)
There's a lot to love about Hurts, but it's fair to say that despite being a top-10 quarterback, a lot of his value comes down to his ability with his legs and not his ability as a pocket passer.
The Alabama product only threw six interceptions in 15 games over the regular season. However, he's thrown three total over his last three contests. I like his chances of tossing another one against a 49ers defense that ranked fifth in pass DVOA and tied for the lead league in interceptions with 20.
