NFL Defensive Props Week 7: Sack Market Breakdown for Za’Darius Smith, Leonard Floyd

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Buy-Low Candidates

John Franklin-Myers (Jets)
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans)
Za'Darius Smith (Browns)
Bryce Huff (Jets)
Cameron Jordan (Saints)

Za’Darius Smith has yet to record a sack this year despite 17 pressures, which is 37th among edge defenders. He’s extremely unlucky to not have a sack yet as you would typically expect around three sacks on the season with that pressure rate.

Colts RT Braden Smith has been ruled out, which means Smith will likely be lined up over backup Blake Freeland for most of the game. Freeland has allowed a pressure on 10% of his pass blocks, which is the seventh-highest rate among 70 tackles who have played on 100+ passing plays.

The Play: Za'Darius Smith Over 0.25 Sacks (+135, DraftKings)

Sell High

T.J. Watt (Steelers)
Trey Hendrickson (Bengals)
Khalil Mack (Chargers)
Leonard Floyd (Bills)
Danielle Hunter (Vikings)

Leonard Floyd has been able to convert 16 pressures into seven sacks. Typically we would expect him to have closer to three sacks with that sort of pressure rate, so he may be a great player to sell high on.

Floyd will likely be matching up with Trent Brown for most of the game, who has only allowed a pressure on 4% of pass blocks this season, which is seventh-best among 70 tackles. Mac Jones has only been sacked on 16% of pressures this season, which ranks 13th lowest among 35 QBs.

The Play: Leonard Floyd Under 0.25 Sacks (-125, DraftKings)