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Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Each week of the season, I’ll give my two favorites to throw a pick.
In 2025, my record was 20-16 for +7.5U. In 2024, I was able to finish at 19-17 for +4.2U, and part of the strategy is finding mispriced INT prices, especially at plus-odds.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 6.
NFL Interception Props for Week 6
- Caleb Williams to Throw an Interception (+125, FanDuel)
- Geno Smithto Throw an Interception (+105, FanDuel)
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The Bears' prodigal son returns in quarterback Caleb Williams, and while I do expect him to hit the ground running in his first game back from a hamstring injury, he has a good chance of throwing an interception in Week 6, so I’m betting it.
Williams could have some fits in this game because the Falcons have a unique defense that generates pressure without blitzing.
The Falcons rank in the top 10 in pressure rate per dropback while also ranking in the bottom five in blitz rate. They rarely send the house to discombobulate a quarterback, and that should work in our favor, as Williams tends to see his highest turnover-worthy play rate when facing pressure without the blitz. It’s been consistent over his 34 regular season games in the NFL.
The Falcons have also been a bit unlucky to have only one interception this season. With the litany of quarterbacks they’ve faced so far (Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Tyler Shough, Tyler Huntley, Jordan Love), they likely should have closer to three interceptions on the season, as they rank seventh in total passes defended while ranking bottom five in interception rate per dropback.
This might be a smarter way of saying “he’s due,” but with the way Williams scrambles around in the pocket to extend plays, it’s only a matter of time before that comes back to bite him.
Pick: Caleb Williams to Throw an Interception (+125, FanDuel)
To go from leading the NFL in interceptions in 2025 to having no interceptions through five games is quite a feat by Geno Smith.
I had written him off as a turnover machine after last year’s disaster with the Raiders, but this should be the end of the line for his lack of picks.
The Patriots look like they’re starting to find their groove on offense after the last couple of explosions against the Bills and Raiders, which I think will hold up against the Jets in Week 6. If the Pats get off to a fast start, that will put Smith and the Jets in catch-up mode, requiring more throwing.
This will also be the strongest pass defense the Jets have faced through five games, with New England ranking fifth in defensive DVOA vs. the pass. Oh, did I mention the Pats are getting All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez back from injury? His presence alone should boost all levels of the secondary's deep-throw protection.
Finally, the Jets are pretty big road underdogs in a divisional game. The Patriots have ranked in the top 10 in pressure rate through five games, and both of Smith's turnover-worthy plays this season have come when seeing pressure, so all it takes is one tipped pass, and we’re off to the races.
Pick: Geno Smith to Throw an Interception (+105, FanDuel)
