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The sixth week of the NFL season is upon us, and I'm back again with my weekly player props piece. Last season, I went 39-27 (59.1%) and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 6, including picks for Cardinals vs Rams, Steelers vs Buccaneers, and more.
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NFL Player Props — Week 6
- Jacoby Brissett Over 6.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Jaylen Warren Over 3.5 Receptions (-118 at FanDuel)
- Ka'imi Fairbairn Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-111 at DraftKings)
Cardinals vs Rams Player Prop: Jacoby Brissett Rushing Yards
Brissett has cleared this in four of five games, and the Rams have allowed QBs to clear this in four of five games, including a season high to Josh Allen last week.
Allen, along with four of the five QBs the Rams have faced, all rushed for at or above their median rush yards in a game this season against the Rams, and that Jameis Winston game was the game he replaced Jaxson Dart, so that's a big caveat.
Arizona should be in a heavy trailing script, giving Brissett plenty of dropbacks a chance to tuck and scramble, and he's unlikely going to have to take any kneel-downs as a heavy underdog.
I'm projecting Brissett for a median of 11 rushing yards, well clear of this 6.5 line.
Pick: Jacoby Brissett Over 6.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Steelers vs Buccaneers Player Prop: Jaylen Warren Receptions
The Steelers should struggle to get much going on the ground against a stout Tampa Bay defense that allows the second-lowest yards per carry in the league.
My OL/DL matchup tool in the Luck Rankings Dashboard gives the Bucs a strong edge in the trenches stopping the run, but not as a pass rush unit. That means Aaron Rodgers should have time to pick his spots, but with strong winds forecast, he may have to consider shorter pass options.
That fits perfectly with how Tampa Bay allows pass attempts. The Bucs allow the seventh-lowest average depth of target, and the fourth-highest rate of passes to backfield-aligned players. They also allow the ninth-highest catch rate to backfield-aligned players, which should give Jaylen Warren a chance to catch plenty of balls thrown his way.
Warren has cleared this line only twice in five games this year, but this is a spot where I actually have him clearing this just shy of 60% of the time, so I'd play this to around -140.
Picks: Jaylen Warren Over 3.5 Receptions (-118 at FanDuel)
Texans vs Jaguars Player Prop: Ka'imi Fairbairn Kicking Points
The Texans are a Luck Rankings side, meaning they are more likely to cover the spread, and if that's the case, it's probably thanks to some red-zone TD regression.
Houston ranks 20th in red-zone TD rate despite ranking 13th in my offensive power rankings and in offensive DVOA.
There's also some wind forecast for Wembley Stadium, with gusts into the mid-20s which can cause a bit of havoc on the field, as well as a 60% chance of rain. That's a far cry from the comfortable conditions Fairbairn has at Reliant Stadium at home.
I'm projecting 7.2 kicking points with a 57% chance to stay under 7.5, while our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has an even lower projection of 6.6 points. When we're in lockstep, it makes me even more confident, so I'm locking this one in.
Picks: Ka'imi Fairbairn Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-111 at DraftKings)
