NFL Odds: Expert’s Best Bets Against the Spread For Conference Championship Games

(Editor’s note: This story is taken from Simon’s analysis on Thursday’s edition of “The Favorites”podcast, breaking down the NFL odds for the AFC and NFC Championship Games and his favorite bets against the spread for Bengals vs Chiefs and 49ers vs Eagles.)

Football fans, it's time for arguably the best day in the NFL: Conference Championship Sunday. As great as the Super Bowl is, having two games to bet on, with all the anticipation that comes with the 49ers and Eagles squaring off in the NFC Championship and the Bengals and Chiefs in the AFC Championship, is really hard to beat.

Before we get to my best bets against the spread for the conference championship games, allow me to set the table a bit.

The Bills and Jaguars shared a few things in common last week: Yes, both lost their Divisional Round playoff matchups. But it was also announced both will be heading to London in 2023 for the NFL’s international games.

I, like the Jaguars and Bills, will also be headed to London in 2023. Instead of going next fall, though, I will be in London this weekend to watch the Conference Championships with my fellow handicappers. Who will I be rooting for from Across the Pond? Well, let’s dive in below. 

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49ers at Eagles Odds, Best Bet for NFC Championship

A rookie quarterback has never played in the Super Bowl before. In the AFC and NFC Championship games, rookie QBs are 0-4; only one quarterback has ever covered the spread in a conference championship, and that was as a two-touchdown underdog. 

I do not anticipate this trend changing this weekend in Philadelphia, possibly the most raucous environment in professional sports

Brock Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, has played exceptionally well in his rookie season. As a starter in the regular season and playoffs combined, he is 8-0 with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He also has been sacked 14 times, or 1.75 times per game, one of the six lowest rates of all NFL starting QBs when extrapolated over a whole season. 

Purdy, however, has shown one issue: He allowed himself to be sacked at least three times in three of six regular season games. He has been better in the playoffs, though, as he was sacked twice against Dallas. 

The Eagles defense, meanwhile, averaged 4.2 sacks per game this season, the highest in the league by one whole sack. The 1985 Bears set the NFL record with 72 sacks in the regular season; the Eagles finished the 2022 season with 70 sacks (in one more game played). 

This will be an extremely difficult spot for a rookie quarterback who spent the past three seasons playing against Big 12 defenses. 

Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is a lot better than Dak Prescott. I took the Eagles as my Big Balls Bet of the Week last week. I will do it again. 

Pick: Eagles to Cover

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Bengals at Chiefs Odds, Best Bet For AFC Championship

I wrote the following in last week’s column:

“I talked to a handful of pros the past few days and was repeatedly told the same message: throw out all the trends, throw out the models. When no one believes in Joe Burrow and his back is against the wall, you back him.

Here’s what they’ve been missing: nearly 70% of the tickets thus far are on Burrow’s Bengals!”

One week later, and we are in almost exactly the same spot!

Look, I was ready to hop on the Burrow Bandwagon against a one-legged Patrick Mahomes. But after seeing Mahomes practice on Wednesday seemingly without any limitations, I am making a potentially grave mistake for a second week in a row by fading Burrow. 

I think the Chiefs should be favored by three. Andy Reid is 60% outright in outdoor playoff games. Thus, I will back Reid, Mahomes and the Chiefs, even though this line has moved so significantly back toward Kansas City as we head into kickoff.

Pick: Chiefs to Cover

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