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NFL Week 12 Expert Picks: Game Predictions & Player Props for George Kittle, Kyren Williams, More

NFL Week 12 Expert Picks: Game Predictions & Player Props for George Kittle, Kyren Williams, More article feature image
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Photo by Manuel Velasquez/Getty Images. Pictured: George Kittle.

Follow Chris Raybon in the Action App to get all his betting picks.


NFL Odds & Picks

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Noah Fant Receptions
4:05 p.m. ET
Marquise Goodwin Receptions
4:05 p.m. ET
George Kittle Receptions
4:25 p.m. ET
Kyren Williams Receptions
4:25 p.m. ET
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Pick
Noah Fant Under 3.5 Receptions (-165; playable to -233)
Best Book
Time
4:05 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: Fant has been held under 3.5 receptions in seven of 10 games, including seven of eight when not facing the Cardinals, who rank 31st in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the most catches per game to the position (7.2).

He is averaging 5.5 receptions per game against the Cardinals and 2.4 receptions per game against everyone else. Just three of nine tight ends listed with a reception prop against the Raiders this season have hit the over.


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Pick
Marquise Goodwin Over 1.5 Receptions (-155; bet to Over 2.5)
Best Book
Time
4:05 p.m. ET

Chris RaybonGoodwin has caught at least two passes in each of the past four games and six of eight games overall this season. He has emerged as the team’s clear-cut No. 3 wide receiver and registered a season-high 83% route participation rate in the last game.

With Dee Eskridge (hand) on IR, that trend should continue. I have Goodwin projected for 2.4 receptions and a 69.6% chance of clearing 1.5.


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Pick
George Kittle Under 4.5 Receptions (-165; play to -233)
Best Book
Time
4:25 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: Kittle had a dream matchup against the Cardinals last week and still caught only four passes, barely clearing his receptions prop of 3.5. His overall monster line of 4/84/2 triggered a rise in his receptions prop to 4.5, but I think it’s fair to say that increase is unwarranted.

Kittle has been held to fewer than 4.5 catches in five of eight games, including three of four games since the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey. And while the Cardinals allow the most receptions per game to tight ends (7.2), the Saints allow the fourth fewest (3.6).

Of the 11 tight ends listed with a receptions prop against New Orleans this season, eight (73%) have stayed under.


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Rams

vs.

Chiefs

Pick
Kyren Williams Over 1.5 Receptions (-155; bet to -220)
Best Book
Time
4:25 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon:Williams ran a route on 64% of the dropbacks last week and now Darrell Henderson is out of the picture. The Chiefs have been generous to opposing backfields, allowing 7.1 receptions per game, second-most.

As the primary receiving back in what is likely to be negative game script, I’m projecting Williams for 3.1 catches this afternoon.


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