Patriots vs. Titans Odds, Picks, Predictions: Don’t Expect High Scoring In This NFL Week 12 Matchup

Patriots vs. Titans Odds, Picks, Predictions: Don’t Expect High Scoring In This NFL Week 12 Matchup article feature image
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Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Patriots DE Matt Judon

Patriots vs. Titans Odds

Patriots Odds -7
Titans Odds +7
Over/Under 43.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Last week, injuries caught up to the Titans. Despite Ryan Tannehill throwing for over 300 yards and the Titans rushing for over 100 yards, they only managed 13 points. The task only gets tougher this week for the beat-up offense as it faces potentially the NFL’s best defense in New England.

As the Titans loosen their grasp on the AFC’s top-seed, the Patriots have come in hot pursuit. New England has won five straight games and is now only a game behind the Titans for the AFC crown.

The Pats’ matchups to end the year look much less scary since the Bills have been struggling against tough pass rushes. This could be the proof that Bill Belichick only needed one year to replace Tom Brady before he returned to owning the NFL world.

Tennessee has consistently found ways to pull out the upset as it has faced other top-tier teams. Setting the line as touchdown underdogs, Vegas is saying it thinks that good fortune will end for the Titans. Let’s dig deeper to see if we agree.


Click the arrow to expand injury reports

Titans vs. Patriots Injury Report

Titans Injuries

  • WR A.J. Brown (chest): Out
  • RB Jeremy McNichols (concussion): Out
  • G Nate Davis (concussion): Out
  • LB Rashaan Evans (ankle): Out
  • LB David Long (hamstring): Out
  • DL Teair Tart (ankle): Out
  • TE Geoff Swaim (concussion): Questionable
  • OLB Ola Adeniyi (hamstring): Questionable
  • LB Jayon Brown (quad): Questionable
  • CB Greg Mabin (ankle): Questionable
  • DB Elijah Molden (groin): Questionable

Patriots Injuries

  • RB Damien Harris (neck): Questionable
  • RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee): Questionable
  • TE Hunter Henry (neck): Questionable
  • TE Jonnu Smith (shoulder): Questionable
  • OT Trent Brown (calf): Questionable
  • DL Christian Barmore (knee): Questionable
  • LB Dont’a Hightower (ankle): Questionable
  • LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (ribs): Questionable
  • K Nick Folk (knee): Questionable
  • P Jake Bailey (knee): Questionable

Titans vs. Patriots Matchup

Titans Offense DVOA Rank Patriots Defense
22 Total 2
22 Pass 2
15 Rush 8
Titans Defense DVOA Rank Patriots Offense
12 Total 16
13 Pass 16
18 Rush 10
Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.
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Titans Depleted by Injuries

The obvious question for the Titans is who is going to step up given their injuries to Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. 

On the ground, Adrian Peterson was not the answer as the Titans chose to cut bait with him. While D’Onta Foreman has looked better, neither was able to manage more than 40 yards in a game. Even the analytic folk have to admit, just because running backs don’t matter doesn’t mean Henry doesn’t matter.

In the air, someone needs to win one-on-one consistently. Tennessee ranks fourth-worst in pass block, per PFF, so Tannehill lives under duress. Tannehill is forced to make quick decisions and unfortunately, his receivers aren’t winning quick enough.  Against the Patriots’ elite defensive backs, creating space quickly will be even more difficult.

The defense has been what has saved them in these games. They rank 11th in net yards per attempt and seventh in rush yards per attempt. While those are respectable, what has made the difference for this defense has been the turnovers. During their recent six-game win streak, the Titans defense forced 12 turnovers. They will need to continue creating those big plays to give the Titans a chance.

Patriots Defense is Real Strength

During their five-game winning streak, the Patriots have managed to pump up their scoring to 35 points per game. Even though their scoring has gone through the roof, they have yet to show firepower through their passing game. In his past four games, Mac Jones has not eclipsed 225 yards passing. 

While the passing game lacks pop, their rushing attack has become one of the best in the league. In that same four-game span, New England has averaged 152 yards rushing. Its running backs have played well but the big difference has come upfront. New England’s offensive line has graded 63 or higher in run blocking in each of their past six games. In their first five, they only had one such game.

The offense has been productive but the defense is what has carried the load during this win streak. The Patriots have multiple turnovers in all but one game and held their most recent three opponents under 175 yards passing. On the year, they rank fourth in yards allowed per drive and first in points allowed per drive. 

While the defense has been elite, the Pats did get crushed in their previous matchup against a high-level offense. The Cowboys matchup was the most recent game against a high-powered offense and they allowed 567 yards of offense. A hampered Titans offense might not push the limits for this defense, but this could be an issue in future weeks.


Patriots vs. Titans Picks, Predictions

These are two similar teams in terms of their paths to success. On offense, they have no problem running the ball and playing a conservative style. On defense, they have excellent backend defenders who create turnovers and set up their limited offenses.

While the Patriots are clicking and the Titans have stumbled, trusting either with a touchdown spread is risky. Turning to the total is the better route to take.

Both of these teams’ scoring is built on getting help from their defense in turnovers. However, they both will have no problem trusting their defense and not pushing the envelope. Last week we saw the Titans stick to their conservative game plan all the way until the fourth quarter. Once their backs were against the wall, Tannehill forced throws and that is when the turnovers began stacking.

As long as Tennessee’s defense keeps it close I feel safe the Titans won’t put themselves in bad spots. Even against the Falcons and Panthers, the Patriots offense did not manage more than 20 points. 

Mike Vrabel has a habit of coaching up and down to his opponents. In a game that could determine the winner of the AFC he should bring his A-game.

Both teams’ conservative offenses should limit turnovers and keep this a low-scoring grind-it-out game. Avoid the trouble of betting and gambling on which defenses make the big play. Take the under and avoid the risk of trusting either offense to not throw the game away.

Pick: Under 44 | Bet to: 42.5

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