NFL Pick, Prediction: Expert ATS Bet | Week 15
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Tommy DeVito.
NFL Pick, Prediction | Week 15
Tommy DeVito is averaging 7.5 or more yards per attempt in four of his last five appearances, which is the same amount of such games that Derek Carr has despite starting every game this season. The Saints play the second-most man coverage, and DeVito has a 90.1 rating, 7.7% touchdown rate against man coverage compared to a 79.8 rating and a 3.4% touchdown rate against zone, per FTN.
The Giants offense has been more stable not just because of DeVito, but also left tackle Andrew Thomas, whose 80.0 PFF pass-blocking grade ranks 10th of 80 qualified tackles.
The Giants could easily be 7-6 if they make a play at the Buffalo 1-yard line in either half in Week 6 and don’t choke away a 99% win probability against the Jets in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Saints’ season has been equally unimpressive, with their wins coming against Carolina (twice), the Titans by 1 in perhaps Ryan Tannehill’s worst start as a pro, the Patriots, the Tyson Bagent-led Bears, and the fraudulent, Gardner Minshew-led Colts.
After giving up 524 yards to Miami in Week 5, the Giants defense ranks 10th in EPA/play since Week 6, according to rbsdm.com, and could cause problems for Carr, who is 52-44-1 (54%) against the spread (ATS) in his career as an underdog but 19-37-2 (34%) as a favorite, per our Action Labs data.
That includes a 9-26-2 (26%) ATS mark as a favorite by a field goal or more, failing to cover by 4.9 points per game.
Bet to: +4
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