Best Week 13 Player Props: Case Keenum Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns?
- There are two player props offering betting value in the NFL Week 13 slate.
- Using our FantasyLabs player props tool, we analyze how to bet props involving Broncos QB Case Keenum and Rams WR Josh Reynolds.
Another Sunday is here, which means another day to sweat player props. Let’s dive right in!
There are two NFL prop bets offering value across two different games, which begin at 1 p.m. ET: Rams-Lions and Broncos-Bengals.
Our public betting data will be used in this data-driven analysis of props, as will our player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner — the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Sunday
Rams WR Josh Reynolds
The Pick: Under 48.5 receiving yards (-105)
Reynolds is averaging 15.1% of the market share of targets for the Rams in the two games without Cooper Kupp (ACL, IR), but one of those games he saw eight targets, as Jared Goff had to throw 49 times, which is 15 attempts above his season average.
If Goff’s attempts dip to his 34.63 average, Reynolds is likely in the 5-6 target range against the Lions. While the Lions corners are awful outside of Darius Slay (who could shadow Brandin Cooks), Reynolds is still the fourth option on this team behind Todd Gurley, Robert Woods and Cooks.
Broncos QB Case Keenum
The Pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110)
Putting faith into Keenum isn’t for the faint of heart: He’s thrown two or more touchdowns in just five games this season, and the Broncos’ red-zone touchdowns have been 50% rushing and 50% passing thus far.
However, the Bengals defense is allowing a league-high scoring rate to opposing offenses, allowing teams to score on 48.8% of drives.
Additionally, the Bengals are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed (25), along with allowing 8.0 yards per attempt (seventh-most) and 292.2 passing yards per game (second-most) this year.
The Broncos’ heavy rushing attack in the red zone is a cause for concern, but there’s value in the plus odds against a generous pass defense.