NFL Player Props: Expert Targets Alec Pierce for Week 7 Best Bet

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards

For my favorite player prop bet of this glorious Week 7 NFL Sunday, I’m going with one of last week’s heroes.

Yes, technically Alec Pierce won the game for the Colts with his final-minute, 32-yard touchdown catch, but more pertinently (to me at least), he bailed out everyone who bet over his 40.5 receiving yard prop.

If you’re wondering why I’d double down on Pierce’s receiving-yards prop this week, it's because I see last week’s production as closer to his floor.

Since missing Week 2 with an injury, Pierce has recorded 61, 80, 81 and 49 yards. He’s emerged as a number two target for Matt Ryan, leading the Colts in Air Yards over the last four games.

This week’s matchup against the Titans presents an ideal matchup for Pierce. The Titans strong rush defense ranks third in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric, but their pass defense ranks 29th. The likes of Mack Hollins (158 yards), Dyami Brown (102 yards) have had big games against Tennessee, despite not being the primary receiver on their teams.

Plus, Pierce himself had 80 yards back in these teams' Week 4 matchup. The Titans showed a willingness to stack the box to stop Jonathan Taylor on the ground, and keep Michael Pittman Jr. at bay through the air. While it was a winning strategy for the Titans, I expect Pierce to reap the benefits again.

I have Pierce projected for close to 60 yards today.