Week 4 NFL Player Props: Should You Bet on Michael Thomas to Reach 10 Receptions … Again!?
Sep 16, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) celebrates with wide receiver Austin Carr (80) after scoring a fourth quarter touchdown against the Cleveland Browns at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints won 21-18. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
- Michael Thomas managed to outdo his projections last week, but he needed to catch every ball thrown his way in an overtime game to do so.
- Once again, oddsmakers have a reception over/under for the Saints receiver at 9.5 among its Week 4 NFL player props.
- Can he hit double-digits again? Here's where the value lies.
Sixteen. Twelve. Ten.
You’d be hard pressed to find many guys who see that many targets over three consecutive weeks, let alone receptions. Then again, there aren’t too many wide receivers like Michael Thomas.
Last week, Thomas burned us by nabbing 10 catches for a third consecutive week, but he needed a bit of help from lady luck.
He had eight catches on eight targets at the end of regulation. But two more catches on two more targets put him at a perfect 10-for-10 on the day — in an overtime game played in a dome.
The stars aligned against us that day, but not again.
Oddsmakers have once again posted a reception over/under for Thomas this week.
>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see all of the NFL Week 4 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Michael Thomas Over/Under 9.5 Receptions in Week 4? (+140/-180)
Projectionist extraordinaire — aka Sean Koerner, the Action Network’s director of predictive analytics — has pegged Thomas at eight receptions against the Giants — outdoors — and believes there is a 71.7% chance that he gets nine or fewer.
If we convert that to odds, we get close to -250, which gives us a load of value on the under.
Conversely, if you’re expecting the streak to continue and were thinking of taking the over, the +140 payout is nowhere near what it should be.
Thomas and Drew Brees have a hell of a connection, and the eight receptions Koerner is projecting for Thomas is still a very high number. In fact, Koerner gives Thomas a 0.1% chance of reeling in 18 passes compared to a 0.0% chance of getting no catches.
This guy is good.
Nevertheless, don’t expect to see double-digit receptions out of him at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.