We have you covered with eight NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 3.
Our staff has locked in props for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Packers vs. Browns and Bengals vs. Vikings, among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have a couple of props for America's Game of the Week between the Cowboys and Bears at 4:25 p.m. ET. We also have bets for Colts vs. Titans, as well as picks for Broncos vs. Chargers and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season on September 21.
NFL Player Props Week 3
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:00 p.m. | |
| 1:00 p.m. | |
| 1:00 p.m. | |
| 1:00 p.m. | |
| 1:00 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Colts vs. Titans
Tyler Warren Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I'm going right back to Tyler Warren after cashing this on his first catch last week. He has a tremendous role in the offense, and Daniel Jones has been surprisingly competent.
Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports dropped this crazy nugget on Jones from Week 2: His 97% first-read target rate was the highest in any game since Fantasy Points Data began charting that metric (2021). Jones now has an 84.1% first-read target rate for the season.
For context, Trevor Lawrence led the league (minimum 100 dropbacks) at 76.1% in 2024.
This is point-and-shoot quarterback play at an extreme level, and it's working.
Danny Dimes is 6th in EPA/play through two games. He's completing more than 71% of his passes and is averaging 294 passing yards per game.
So, who leads the Colts in first-read target rate? Of course it's Warren at 24.5%.
Warren paces all tight ends (minimum 25 routes) in targets per route run at 29%. Warren is 3rd in yards per route run at the position (minimum 25 routes) behind only the Green Bay tight ends (Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave).
Warren is the focal point of a red-hot passing game and should continue to see plenty of volume this week.
Pick: Tyler Warren Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Packers vs. Browns
Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Kyle Murray
This sets up as a great spot for Josh Jacobs to potentially see massive volume.
The Packers are nearly double-digit favorites against the Browns and are dealing with several injuries among their pass-catchers.
Jacobs went for 84 yards last game, and should be a good bet to repeat that kind of performance against Cleveland this week.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Bengals vs. Vikings
Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+125)
While the Vikings are going to be with their backup QB (Carson Wentz), I'm not sure that is a downgrade for Jefferson.
J.J. McCarthy didn't look great in his first two games, and we've seen Vikings' head coach Kevin O'Connell work wonders with QBs in the past.
Jefferson is the focal point in this offense and should be heavily used in this game. He's the go-to threat in the red zone, and the Bengals' defense isn't good.
I have the true odds here around +100, making this a great bet.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+125)
Falcons vs. Panthers
Kyle Pitts Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
By Brit Devine
We might have rookie season Kyle Pitts back.
Pitts ran a route on all but one Falcons dropback last week. He's lining up all over the field to create mismatches, and is 2nd on the team in targets through two games.
Last season, he ran a route on just 67% of pass plays.
The Panthers have allowed a league-high 188 yards to tight ends over the first two weeks (to the Jaguars and Cardinals), with three different TEs all going over this total.
Per PFF, the Panthers rank 25th in pass coverage, rank 29th in pass rush, and have some of the lowest individual pass coverage grades at the linebacker position this season.
More snaps plus more routes for Pitts is leading to bigger games, and the matchup looks as good based on the data through two weeks.
Pick: Kyle Pitts Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Jets vs. Buccaneers
Breece Hall Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Kyle Murray
This is a tough spot for Breece Hall, as the Bucs have been really good against the run this season, and with the Jets being nearly touchdown underdogs, they might be forced into passing the ball more.
Hall could see more volume with Justin Fields out, but they are still going to work in multiple running backs in this backfield.
Pick: Breece Hall Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Saints vs. Seahawks
Juwan Johnson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
By Brit Devine
Juwan Johnson leads all tight ends in targets this season (20), ranks 2nd in routes run (76), 5th in yards (125), he has the 4th-highest share of team air yards of any tight end, and has been the first read on offense more than any other TE in the league.
I could keep going, but you get the point.
Johnson is an every-down player who has been heavily used in the passing game.
George Kittle was on his way to a big game against Seattle in Week 1 before injury, and the Steelers' TEs combined for nine targets, seven catches, and 58 yards in Week 2.
In what should be a pass-happy game script as 7-point underdogs, this line looks laughably low.
Pick: Juwan Johnson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Broncos vs. Chargers
Justin Herbert Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Charlie Wright
Justin Herbert is off to an excellent this start this season, largely due to an adjustment in offensive mindset for the Chargers. They lead the league in pass rate over expectation through two games and are 5th in neutral pass rate.
The ground-and-pound nature of this team under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman has given way to an aerial attack.
The increase in passing plays has boosted Herbert's production on the ground. He's posted 16 carries for 63 yards.
After recording 7+ carries in just two games last season, he's done it in both games to begin this season.
Herbert averaged 1.8 scrambles per game last season. He's up to 3.5 per game so far this season. Herbert has recorded 30+ rushing yards in each game.
Denver has played man coverage at the 2nd-highest rate this season. They were 5th last season.
Man coverage typically leads to more scramble opportunities, as the defensive backs are focused on their assignments and not paying as much attention to the quarterback.
Pick: Justin Herbert Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Bears vs. Cowboys
Rome Odunze Anytime TD (+155)
By Grant Neiffer
While I was heavier on DJ Moore than Rome Odunze to start the season, it's clear that Odunze is the go-to guy in this offense.
Odunze has a massive 20 targets and three touchdowns through two games this season.
He's been the go-to guy in the red zone (3 targets) as well, and this matchup is great.
We knew that the Cowboys would take a hit on the defensive end after losing Micah Parsons, but we did not realize how big of a hit.
They may be one of the worst defenses in the league after getting crushed by a bad Giants' offense last week.
I have the true odds here around +120, making this a great bet.
