We have you covered with a total of seven NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 6.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Rams vs Ravens, Cardinals vs Colts, among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have a few picks for later in the day for 49ers vs Buccaneers and Bengals vs Packers. We also have bets for Browns vs Steelers, Patriots vs Saints, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 6 of the NFL season on October 12.
NFL Player Props Week 6
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Rams vs. Ravens
Kyren Williams Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
By Chris Prince
Last week, we saw a preview of what this Ravens team can look like without Lamar Jackson, and with the news of Jackson being iffy to play and the Rams installed as 7.5-point favorites, I love this spot for Kyren Williams.
While he has cleared this number in just two games, he also has at least 65 rushing yards in every game this season — the consistency has certainly been there.
The Ravens defense has been one of the worst in the league this season; they have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in every game, with an average of 146.4 rushing yards allowed per game.
They have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs, and with Williams serving as the Rams' workhorse back in a likely favorable game script, I am smashing the over.
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Browns vs. Steelers
Jaylen Warren Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
We easily cashed Jordan Mason's rushing yards under last week against this same Browns defense. I'm going right back to it this week.
Jaylen Warren hasn't topped 50 rushing yards yet this season, and this will easily be his toughest matchup. The Browns have limited opponents to a league-low 75.6 rushing yards per game.
Mason and the Vikings might not be the toughest test, but Cleveland has also faced Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, Josh Jacobs, and Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. This unit has capped running backs at just three yards per carry.
Warren seemed to take over the Pittsburgh backfield in Week 3, earning 18 carries against New England. Kaleb Johnson was booted from the mix, and Kenneth Gainwell only saw four carries.
In Week 4, Warren was a surprise inactive with a knee injury. Gainwell stepped in and racked up 99 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries.
Warren is expected to be back coming off the bye, but it's hard to imagine him regaining the majority of the carries. Gainwell has at least earned a split of the workload, and he might've done enough to take over as the lead back.
It's not like Warren and his 3.1 YPC were running away with the job before the knee issue.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Cardinals vs. Colts
Daniel Jones Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
While this is a great spot for the Colts offense against Arizona, this number feels too high, and I really like the under here.
The spread currently lists the Colts as 7-point favorites, and there is the potential that Kyler Murray misses this game, which would likely increase that number.
The Colts should control this game on the ground with Jonathan Taylor, and I just don't envision an offense potentially led by backup Jacoby Brissett putting up much resistance on the other side.
If Arizona isn't able to push back, Jones won't need to be as aggressive through the air, which puts us in a great under spot.
I have Jones projected for 220 passing yards, and I'm in fine with that number.
Pick: Daniel Jones Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Patriots vs. Saints
Drake Maye Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
By Chris Prince
Another mobile quarterback with a rushing prop I really like this week is Drake Maye against the Saints.
While we haven't seen as much production on the ground over the past few weeks, Maye is running a ton — he's averaging 5.4 carries per game this season.
The Saints weren't great against rushing quarterbacks last season (bottom-eight in rushing yards allowed), and we're seeing the same story this season, as they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Pick: Drake Maye Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Titans vs. Raiders
Ashton Jeanty Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Charlie Wright
Ashton Jeanty has posted back-to-back efficient games, even as the Raiders continue to crumble.
Jeanty put up 138 rushing yards against an awful Bears defense in Week 4, and then he averaged nearly five yards per carry facing a solid Colts defense the following game.
Jeanty would've had a better performance against the Colts if the game had been vaguely competitive. Instead, it was Raheem Mostert handling the workload in the fourth quarter.
If the Raiders get blown out by the Titans, I'll tip my cap to them.
Offensive line issues have forced Jeanty to create most of his yards on his own. He's tied with Jonathan Taylor for the league lead in missed tackles forced. A healthy 58.2% of Jeanty's yards have come after contact.
Fortunately, he shouldn't have to be so reliant on shaking off defenders in this matchup. Tennessee has allowed the second-most yards before contact per carry. The Titans have allowed the third-most yards per game and fourth-most yards per carry to running backs.
The Raiders are favorites this week, which is notable because Jeanty has averaged 20 carries in the two games the Raiders didn't lose by double digits.
Pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Chris Godwin Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Charlie Wright
Chris Godwin dominated across seven games last season before going down with a severe ankle injury. His slot rate jumped from 38.4% in 2023 to 64.1% in 2024, leading to huge production.
Godwin posted an elite 3.06 yards per route run, a 32.3% target share and a 29% target per route run rate out of the slot last season. When he was out wide, those marks slipped to 1.82, 23.3% and 25%, respectively.
With Mike Evans out and Sterling Shepard stepping in as Tampa Bay's WR3, Godwin has been forced out wide as of late. He's only run 42.2% of his routes from the slot this season.
Once again, the majority of Godwin's production has come from that alignment. He has five catches on nine targets for 50 yards out of the slot (27 routes). He's managed just one catch on five targets for two yards when lining up out wide (37 routes).
Godwin should return to a productive slot role once Evans returns. But for now, he's not in position to succeed.
Pick: Chris Godwin Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Bengals vs. Packers
Chase Brown Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Charlie Wright
I've already shouted out Cleveland as the best run defense in the league, but Green Bay isn't far behind them. The Packers have allowed just 77.5 rushing yards per game, which is only a couple more yards than Cleveland.
This Green Bay defense has held running backs to the fifth-fewest yards per game and seventh-fewest yards per carry.
Chase Brown has topped out at 47 rushing yards this season, and he needed 16 carries to get there in Week 2 against Jacksonville.
That's the biggest issue here.
Brown has been inefficient as a runner, and the volume has dried up without Joe Burrow under center. Brown has recorded 10, 10 and 8 carries in Jake Browning's three starts.
Maybe Joe Flacco will revive this offense, but heading into Sunday, he'll only have five days to get up to speed with his new team.
Cincinnati is a 14-point underdog on the road in one of the toughest environments for opposing teams. The Bengals have been outscored by 76 points over the past three games.
We're probably looking at another blowout in Week 6, which could cap Brown's workload.
