NFL Playoff Picture, Odds: Updated Standings & Postseason Projections
Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (clockwise from top left): Bengals, Texans, Colts, Bills, Saints, Rams, Seahawks, Vikings.
Here's everything you need to know about the NFL playoff picture, including our expert projections and the implied odds for every team.
NFL Playoff Picture, Odds: Updated Standings & Postseason Projections
AFC Playoff Projections
| Team | # of Wins | Playoff Chances | Fair Implied Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clinched | Clinched | |
| 11 | Clinched | Clinched | |
| 11 | Clinched | Clinched | |
| 9 | 96% | -2400 | |
| 9 | 92% | -1150 | |
| 8 | 60% | -150 | |
| 8 | 48% | +108 | |
| 8 | 51% | -105 | |
| 8 | 20% | +400 | |
| 7 | 15% | +567 | |
| 8 | 14% | +614 | |
| 7 | 4% | +2400 | |
| 6 | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 5 | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 5 | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 4 | Eliminated | Eliminated |
NFC Playoff Projections
| NFC | # of Wins | Playoff Chances | Fair Implied Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clinched | Clinched | |
| 11 | Clinched | Clinched | |
| 11 | Clinched | Clinched | |
| 10 | Clinched | Clinched | |
| 8 | 80% | -400 | |
| 8 | 70% | -233 | |
| 8 | 68% | -212 | |
| 7 | 24% | +340 | |
| 7 | 20% | +400 | |
| 7 | 20% | +400 | |
| 7 | 17% | +488 | |
| 6 | <1% | +9900 | |
| 5 | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 4 | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 3 | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 1 | Eliminated | Eliminated |
These playoff projections were developed primarily by using Sean Koerner’s rest-of-season win projections as a starting point. Koerner has simulated every remaining NFL game based on his personal lines, resulting in a percentage chance of each team ending with a given number of wins.
From there, we figured out which of those win totals would lead to a playoff berth. For example, a team like the Eagles would effectively clinch with one more win or at least one loss by four of the five six-win teams, and the odds of at least one of those scenarios happening is above 99%.
Projections for teams in the middle are somewhat more challenging, as various tiebreaker and head-to-head scenarios come into play. Those were all evaluated individually, based on which team would hold a tiebreaker over other teams and their odds of finishing with the same number of wins.
All of the numbers are rounded to the nearest whole percentage, with the odds further rounded to the nearest five. This means there isn’t really an appreciable difference between the teams in the upper 90s or low single digits. Those can safely be interpreted as extremely likely/unlikely to get in, but we didn’t want to give teams yet to clinch a 100% chance, or teams not officially eliminated a 0% chance.
Playoff odds via DraftKings and Bet365 as of Saturday, Dec. 30 at 4 p.m. ET.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
