The NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 9 of the 2025 season.
These NFL rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
When the Luck Score in a game is 1.454 or higher, unlucky teams are 157-106-7 against the closing spread — the hardest line to beat. That equates to a 59.7% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 260 games!
In Week 8, the five unlucky went 3-2 ATS, moving luck-based sides to 14-7 (66.7%) ATS on the year. In these 21 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 4.2 points.
Luck Totals went 0-3 on the week, with weak Luck Unders going 0-2 to the under and the strong Luck Over going 0-1 to the over. Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 7-14 (33.3%) while strong Luck Totals are now 2-4 (33.3%) on the season. It's been a rough year for Luck Totals so far, and if that continues, it would be the first losing year for Luck Totals in the history of the Luck Rankings.
Thankfully, this week — Week 9 — is typically where the weak Luck Unders start to beat the market. Starting now, weak Luck Unders have historically gone 56.5% to the under. Strong Totals are still at quite a small sample size this year with just six games, so hopefully they turn around over the remainder of the season.
Overall, strong totals and sides have a 16-9 (64%) record in 2025.
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 9, and be sure to check back on Wednesday, as Dr. Nick Giffen breaks down the Week 9 luck-based games.
NFL Week 9 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets, while the opposite may be true for unlucky teams.
