Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 NFL Prop Bets on DraftKings: Matt Ryan & Ronald Jones
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Matt Ryan
DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Some lines for the Week 12 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately, based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
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This season, I’m 265-159-8 (+64.8) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200 and a deposit bonus of up to $500.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan Passing Touchdowns
- Over 1.5: -195
- Under 1.5: +153
I talk about Ryan a lot in the Week 12 quarterback breakdown. This is a great spot for him.
The Falcons are No. 1 in the league with a 67.7% pass play rate. They’re inclined to throw.
And the Bucs have the league’s most extreme funnel defense. They rank No. 1 against the run but No. 30 against the pass in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. The Falcons should be motivated to pass.
Even though he missed Week 8, Ryan is still well on his way to a ninth consecutive 4,000-yard passing campaign, and the Bucs have allowed the second-most air yards and yards after the catch to opponents with 480.5 per game (per AirYards.com).
Ryan has the potential for a massive game against the Bucs.
Last year, Ryan had 355 yards and three touchdowns in Week 6 and 378 yards and two touchdowns in Week 17 against the Bucs, and they’re definitely not any better this year in pass defense.
Ryan has two touchdowns passing per game this year, and the Bucs have allowed 2.5 to opposing quarterbacks.
In fact, every quarterback to face them other than a run game-restricted Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 1 and injured Cam Newton in Week 2 has passed for two-plus touchdowns.
Hammer the over and don’t think twice.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Ryan projected for 2.2 passing touchdowns.
Pick: Over 1.5 (-195) [In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones II Rushing Yards
- Over 46.5: -115
- Under 46.5: -108
Bucs-Falcons has a slate-high 51.5-point over/under, which suggests we could see a pass-driven shootout.
The Bucs are No. 6 with a 64.3% pass play rate, and the Falcons have a funnel defense that ranks No. 11 against the run but No. 27 against the pass in DVOA.
I expect that the Bucs will rely on the passing game, so Jones could have fewer carries than the 10.7 per game he’s averaged this year.
On top of that, with his mediocre rushing work over the past two months (3.4 yards per carry since Week 4), Jones might once again lose carries to Peyton Barber and maybe even Dare Ogunbowale.
Given the expected pass-heavy game script, the backfield uncertainty and Jones’ inefficiency, it’s easy to be pessimistic about his Week 12 rushing production.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Jones projected for 37 rushing yards.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-108) [In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 12, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.