My wife and I have a fun annual tradition this time of year.
Sometime in May or June (whenever we can con a grandparent to watch the kids for a few days), we scoot off to a casino for a few days to enjoy staying in bed past 6:30 a.m., drinking coffee without having to simultaneously cook two different breakfasts and worry about getting lunches and backpacks packed while our precious little ones fighting over brushing their teeth.
While on these trips, we grab a couple of NFL futures sheets from the sportsbook, then head to a bar to grab a beer and start plowing through our top Super Bowl favorites, win totals, award winners, etc.
A huge part of this, especially in the spring, is having an accurate way to quantify the strengths of the NFL schedules for the upcoming season.
The problem is that many mainstream sports media outlets use the previous season's opponent's win percentages to rank the strength of schedule — a method that has flaws.
First, between the draft and free agency, rosters often look wildly different from the way they did the season before.
Second, it doesn't account for injuries.
Take the 2025 Cincinnati Bengals, for example. Cincinnati finished just 6-11 on the season, giving teams playing the Bengals in 2026 a seemingly cupcake opponent based on that .353 win percentage.
However, last year's Bengals went 5-3 with a healthy Joe Burrow and just 1-8 without.
With Burrow healthy heading into 2026, should all of Cincinnati's upcoming opponents be looking at a team with a .353 win percentage? Of course not.
And finally, last year's records don't account for coaching changes.
There were 10 (!) head-coaching changes during the offseason, which means new philosophies, systems, etc. for nearly one-third of the league.
Once again, how does using last year's win/loss records account for this? It doesn't.
So, what is a better way to produce NFL strength of schedule rankings?
By using NFL regular-season win totals.
Action Network's Evan Abrams did this recently in his NFL schedule release betting primer.
Below is a table organizing the NFL strengths of schedule — ranked from hardest to easiest — while also comparing the differences between using win totals and the previous season's records.
NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings
*Schedules ranked from hardest to easiest
| Team | Avg Opponent Win Total | Rank By 2025 Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 9.32 | 3 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.09 | 2 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.97 | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8.97 | 10 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.85 | 13 |
| Houston Texans | 8.85 | 26 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.79 | 1 |
| Washington Commanders | 8.79 | 16 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.74 | 14 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.74 | 21 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.74 | 19 |
| New York Giants | 8.74 | 17 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.74 | 29 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.74 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8.68 | 9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.68 | 22 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.68 | 11 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8.62 | 8 |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.62 | 4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8.62 | 25 |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 | 15 |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 | 6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 | 28 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.44 | 5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8.44 | 18 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.38 | 24 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8.38 | 23 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.32 | 32 |
| New York Jets | 8.32 | 12 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.21 | 30 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.09 | 31 |
| Detroit Lions | 7.97 | 27 |
As you can see, there are some glaring differences right off the bat.
When using opponent win total odds, the Dallas Cowboys boast the third-hardest schedule for 2026. However, they rank just 20th when using 2025 opponent win/loss records.
Similarly, the Houston Texans have just the 26th-hardest schedule using last year's records, but could face a much more difficult path to the playoffs based on opponent win totals.
On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and Kansas City Chiefs may have much softer schedules than last year's opponent win/loss records imply.
