2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Why History Fades the Favorite — and the QB Right Behind Him
The early betting market for the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award is already telling a familiar story — and history suggests it’s one bettors should be careful with.
At the top of the board, it’s not a quarterback.
Instead, a skill position player — Jeremiyah Love — is the current favorite, sitting at +320 after being drafted third overall by the Cardinals. Right behind him is Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza at +380, followed by a cluster of wide receivers and skill players.
Here’s a look at the current odds board:
2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
- Jeremiyah Love — Cardinals (3rd overall), +320
- Fernando Mendoza — Raiders (1st overall), +380
- Carnell Tate — Titans (4th overall), +650
- Jordyn Tyson — Saints (8th overall), +750
- Jadarian Price — Seahawks (32nd overall), +1000
- Makai Lemon — Eagles (20th overall), +1200
- KC Concepcion — Browns (24th overall), +2700
- Omar Cooper Jr. — Jets (30th overall), +2700
- Denzel Boston — Browns (39th overall), +3000
- Carson Beck — Cardinals (65th overall), +3000
This setup, with a non-quarterback favored, with a QB sitting right behind, isn’t a new phenomenon. But it also hasn’t been very predictive.
When a QB Isn’t Favored, Chaos Usually Follows
Since 2015, there have been six seasons where a non-quarterback opened as the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Last year was the most recent example:
- Ashton Jeanty (+260) was favored
- Cam Ward (+350) was the top QB
- Tetairoa McMillan won the award at 14-1
And that result fits the broader trend.
Non-QB Favorite Seasons Since 2015
- 2025: Tetairoa McMillan won (14-1)
- 2023:C.J. Stroud won (+850)
- 2018:Saquon Barkley won (+155)
- 2017:Alvin Kamara won (50-1)
- 2016:Dak Prescott won (9-1)
Of those seasons, only Barkley in 2018 actually won as the favorite. Every other year? The winner came from further down the board.
Zooming Out: Favorites Rarely Cash
Expanding the sample makes the trend even clearer. Since 2009, there have been nine seasons where a non-quarterback was favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Across those nine seasons:
- Only one favorite won (Barkley, 2018)
- The average odds of the eventual winner: ~15-1
Here are the additional seasons:
- 2014: Sammy Watkins favored, Odell Beckham Jr. wins (25-1)
- 2013: Montee Ball favored, Eddie Lacy wins (8-1)
- 2010: Dez Bryant favored, Sam Bradford wins (5-1)
- 2009: Knowshon Moreno favored, Percy Harvin wins (12-1)
The takeaway is consistent: when the market leans toward a skill player early, it often misses the actual winner entirely.
The QB Right Behind the Favorite Has Been a Trap
There’s another layer to this trend, and it directly impacts Fernando Mendoza.
In these same seasons, the quarterback listed just behind the favorite has almost never won either.
- 2025: Cam Ward
- 2023: Bryce Young
- 2018: Sam Darnold
- 2017: Deshaun Watson
- 2016: Carson Wentz
- 2014: Derek Carr
- 2013: EJ Manuel
- 2010: Sam Bradford — only winner
- 2009: Mark Sanchez
Out of those nine quarterbacks, only one — Bradford in 2010 — won the award. On the surface, Mendoza’s college production looks elite: 41 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 9.3 yards per attempt.
He’s just the 15th quarterback in the BCS era to hit 40+ TDs with six or fewer interceptions. But the efficiency metric matters here. Of those 15 quarterbacks, only six had under 9.5 yards per attempt, including:
- Fernando Mendoza
- Caleb Williams
- Justin Fields
- Geno Smith
- Case Keenum
- Omar Jacobs
That group has struggled translating to the NFL:
- 104-147 SU (41.4%) overall
- 40-72 SU (35.7%) for the team that drafted them
It’s not a death sentence — but it’s not the cleanest projection either.
The Betting Angle
The early market is effectively forcing a choice between two names at the top: a non-quarterback favorite in Jeremiyah Love and the top quarterback just behind him in Fernando Mendoza. On the surface, that looks like a clean, two-player race.
History suggests otherwise. In seasons where this exact setup exists — a skill-position favorite with a quarterback directly behind him — neither profile has performed particularly well. The favorite rarely converts, and the quarterback in that second slot has almost never gone on to win the award.
Instead, the winner has consistently emerged from further down the board. Across these seasons, the average winning price sits around 15-1, pointing toward a range of candidates outside the top tier rather than within it.
If this trend holds, the 2026 race is unlikely to be decided by the names currently leading the market.
(Odds information from Sports Odds History)
