NFL Supercomputer Predicts Super Bowl LVIII

Super Bowl LVIII is set as the San Francisco 49ers will take on the Kansas City Chiefs. In a rematch of the 2020 matchup the Chiefs are looking to become the first back-to-back Lombardi Trophy winners since the ‘04 and ‘05 New England Patriots. The 49ers, meanwhile, look to pick up their first Super Bowl victory since 1995. With that in mind, we putBettingexpert's supercomputer, BETSiE, to work to predict how The Big Game will go. Here are the predictions:

San Francisco is the favorite, but the matchup is expected to be close. The 49ers have a 56.26% chance to win the matchup, leaving the Chiefs with a 43.74% chance. Kansas City can’t be counted out though; they had worse odds of beating the Ravens this past weekend (42.49%). BETSiE predicts the game will come down to a field goal, with San Francisco projected to put up just two points more than Kansas City.

Prior to the start of this season BETSiE listed the Chiefs and 49ers as the second and fourth most likely teams to win Super Bowl LVIII, respectively. The Philadelphia Eagles were considered the favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy with a 16.6% chance, over 5 points better than Kansas City in second place. BETSiE was spot on with the Chiefs final record prediction, projecting a 11-6 season for the defending champions. It underestimated the 49ers a little though, projecting a 10-7 record for Kyle Shanahan’s crew. San Francisco ended up going 12-5.

NFL Betting Futures

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Methodology

NFL BETSiE simulates the entire NFL season 100,000 times predicting average scores and win-loss probabilities for each game. Heading into the season, each NFL team is rated by expected points for and expected points against, based on previous performance and anticipated progression and regression of each team. BETSiE’s expected points model takes into account the expected points a team earns play-by-play across each NFL game they play.