Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacob Hollister (48) celebrates
This Sunday’s NFL card is pretty ugly, but we’re at the top of the stretch so every game matters as teams jockey for playoff positions.
Of course there really is no such thing as an ugly slate to a bettor, so let’s dive into some of the big news across the NFL betting market for Week 11.
Monday Night Update
12:06 a.m. ET: It was a massive longshot — 10493-1, to be exact — but when the Seattle Seahawks completed a wild victory against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, one bettor in New Jersey turned a $2 prayer of a parlay into a $20,987.04 reality.
The nine-team parlay — which included the moneylines of the Browns, Bucs, Jets, Titans, Dolphins, Vikings, Bears, Falcons and Seahawks and was placed at DraftKings — did not come through without a sweat.
The bet ended with an OT thriller on Monday Night Football, as San Francisco mounted a furious fourth-quarter comeback (on two different occasions) to force the extra period.
Russell Wilson & Co. got the ball first in overtime and proceeded to drive down the field without much resistance. But instead of capping the drive with what would’ve been a game-winning TD, Wilson threw a shocking interception in the red zone.
It looked like the dream was over, but the 49ers couldn’t turn their possession into points, as rookie kicker Chase McLaughlin snap-hooked a 47-yard field goal that would’ve ended the game and killed this miraculous bet.
After both teams traded punts, Wilson wouldn’t waste his third chance to give the 49ers their first loss of the season, leading the Seahawks down the field for the game-winning field goal and cashing this longshot ticket.
The road to MNF was full of twists and turns for this bettor, as well.
The Browns needed a touchdown in the final two minutes to beat the Bills. The Buccaneers’ second half against Arizona featured four lead changes. The Jets pulled away in the fourth against the Giants. The Titans blocked a game-tying field goal from K.C. as time expired. The Dolphins survived a late charge from the Jacoby Brissett-less Colts. The Vikings benefitted the Cowboys bungling a late red-zone trip on Sunday Night Football. Ironically, the Falcons — the biggest underdog of the bunch — and the Bears provided the surest victories.
Monday Afternoon Updates
4:20 p.m. ET: According to Jimmy Vaccaro over at the South Point in Las Vegas, one bettor has a $75,000 teaser with Seahawks +13.5. The other leg of the two-team, seven-point teaser was Vikings +10.5, which easily cashed on Sunday Night Football.
The bet would profit $50,000 if Seattle covers +13.5 in San Francisco on Monday Night.
3 p.m. ET: One bettor at DraftKings will be watching Monday Night Football between the Seahawks and 49ers with a more focused eye than others. After all, it’s not every day you have the chance to turn a $2 bet into a $20,987.04 profit.
This bettor placed a nine-team moneyline parlay of the following wagers:
- Browns over Bills
- Buccaneers over Cardinals
- Falcons over Saints
- Jets over Giants
- Bears over Lions
- Titans over Chiefs
- Dolphins over Colts
- Vikings over Cowboys
- Seahawks over 49ers
That’s would be a return of 1,049,250%, buoyed by what was an upset-filled Sunday.
Seattle is a 6-point underdog on Monday Night Football playing at the undefeated 49ers. Currently, according to The Action Network’s data, 62% of bets are on the Seahawks.
Sunday Night Updates
9:30 p.m. ET: Week 10 will likely go down as one of the best Sundays of the NFL season for the guys in the desert. Sportsbooks almost always come out for the better when big underdogs win. Well, plenty of dogs were barking on Sunday.
Outright losses by the Chiefs and Rams, the slate’s two most popular sides, along with the Falcons’ upset as 14-point underdogs against the Saints provided a big boost for sportsbooks across the country.
It’s already been a good day, but according to Jeff Sherman at the Westgate SuperBook, it could be a great day depending on how Sunday Night Football ends up.
“If the Vikings cover, it will be our second-best Sunday of the season,” Sherman explained. “Even if Dallas covers it’s been a solid day, overall.”
CG Technology’s Tony DiTomasso said it was one of the best days of the season at his shop, as well.
Sunday Afternoon Updates
4:15 p.m. ET: We spent most of the morning telling you just how much sportsbooks needed the Titans to cover as 6-point home underdogs against the Chiefs. Well, they got one better: Tennessee beat the mighty Chiefs outright, 35-32, as it blocked a last-second field goal attempt that would’ve taken the game to overtime.
Tennessee’s victory cost one bettor K.C. moneyline bettor at CG Technology $90,000.
PointsBet — which told us earlier this morning “We need the Titans pretty big” — had a bettor wager $80,000 on a parlay that included Chiefs -4. (It also included the Saints moneyline, which failed to come through around the same time K.C. lost.)
Jeff Sherman from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook told me, “K.C. and New Orleans losing was optimal.”
No matter what happens the rest of the day, this is likely be a banner Sunday for the books.
William Hill, the largest retail sportsbook operation in the country, had Chiefs-Titans as both its most-bet game of the day and most lopsided game of the day. That combination led to a massive victory. “Very good for us,” says William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich. “Still trying to dig out from yesterday’s results.”
Sunday Morning Updates
William Hill has one of the highest spreads around the market for today’s Chiefs-Titans game (KC -6.5) — and for good reason. With Patrick Mahomes returning to the field, the Chiefs have become a wildly popular favorite.
In fact, at William Hill, this is their most-bet game of the day in terms of tickets (accounting for 13% of the total for the slate), and it’s also the most lopsided game in terms of tickets wagered. The Chiefs are getting 90% of the bets, which is all the more significant since we’re dealing with a large sample of tickets as the game approaches.
The next-most lopsided game at William Hill in terms of tickets is Ravens-Bengals, which has Baltimore getting 78% of the bets.
CG Technology will also be big Titans fans. The book took the largest wager I’ve heard of today: $90,000 on Chiefs moneyline (-270). It would net $33,000.
Pros vs. Joes
The Superbook’s Jeff Sherman sent over his his Pros vs Joes report for us this morning. The professional bettors at his shop in Vegas are on the Browns vs. Bills, Giants at Jets, Bengals vs. Ravens, Panthers at Packers and Dolphins at Colts.
The Joe Public bettors are betting the Chiefs at Titans, Bills at Browns, Buccaneers vs. Cardinals, Saints vs. Falcons, Ravens at Bengals, Colts vs. Dolphins, Rams at Steelers and Cowboys vs. Vikings.
As you can see in this side-by-side chart, the public and the pros are on separate sides of Bills-Browns, Ravens-Bengals and Colts-Dolphins.
But different sportsbooks have bettors on different sides. CG’s Tony DiTomasso says his sharps are on the Buccaneers and the Cowboys, as well as the Panthers moneyline.
- $90,000 on Chiefs ML (-270) vs. Titans to win $33,000 at CG Technology
- $81,000 parlay of Chiefs (-4, -152), Saints moneyline (-770), Ravens moneyline (-525), Panthers (+12, -294) to win $162,000 at PointsBet
- $25,000 on Browns (-2.5, -125) vs. Bills to win $20,000 at FanDuel
- $22,000 on Browns (-2.5) vs Bills to win $20,000 at Superbook
- $22,000 on Giants (-2.5) vs Jets to win $20,000 at Superbook
- $20,000 on Browns (-2.5, -125) vs. Bills to win $16,000 at FanDuel
- $20,000 parlay of Browns (-125) and Cardinals (+180) moneylines to win $80,800 at FanDuel
- $20,000 on Jets (+2.5, +100) vs. Giants to win $20,000 at FanDuel
- $20,000 on Browns ML (-155) to win $12,903 at Superbook
- $16,000 on Browns ML (-160) to win $10,000 at Superbook
Biggest Points Betting Wagers
The New Jersey sportsbook PointsBet offers bettors the ability to wager on a per-point basis, which they call “Points Betting.” This method of betting rewards you if a bet covers by a lot and vice versa. The book took two big Points Betting wagers this morning:
- $1,000 per point on Over 53 in Cardinals-Bucs
- $1,000 per point on Over 52.5 in Falcons-Saints
Most lopsided money on games
95% on Chiefs at Titans at FanDuel and PointsBet
89% on Ravens at Bengals at PointsBet
88% on Ravens at Bengals at DraftKings
87% on Chiefs at Titans at DraftKings
83% on Cowboys vs. Vikings at PointsBet
78% on Giants at Jets at DraftKings
77% on Packers vs. Panthers at DraftKings
77% on Cardinals at Buccaneers at PointsBet
Biggest Needs for Sportsbooks
Both the Superbook and the CG Technology have the same needs: Titans, Bengals and Steelers.
PointsBet’s Matt Chaprales: “We need the Titans pretty big.”
BetAmerica needs added to the chorus: Titans and Bengals.
William Hill needs the Falcons the most. William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich says he’s leaning on that “ragtag Falcons squad.”
The Mahomes Factor
The biggest decision of the week at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is Chiefs at Titans.
Even before Patrick Mahomes was confirmed to play, the money started pouring in on the Chiefs as 6.5-point road favorites. It hasn’t stopped.
“If the Titans somehow won this game, it would be great for us,” the SuperBook’s Eric Osterman said.
The Chiefs are also the most public side at the New Jersey books. A whopping 97% of the money is on Kansas City at FanDuel and 90% of the dollars are on Mahomes and Company at DraftKings.
Tennessee is the least popular side according to our market-wide data. The Titans are getting just 17% of the bets as of Friday night. They are the only team getting less than 30% of the tickets.
Pros vs. Joes
cording to our data, Buffalo at Cleveland is the most-bet game on the board and it isn’t all that close.
The Browns, despite their 2-6 record, are 2.5-point favorites over the 6-2 Bills in this one. As you’d expect, the public is more than happy to take the points with Buffalo. The Bills are getting 70% of the tickets according to our data, making them the second-most popular side on the board.
“Lot of casual bettors are confused as to why the Bills aren’t he favorites,” Osterman said.
The public may be happy to fade the Browns but the sharps are going the other way.
PointsBet, which is typically a more sharp book than DraftKings or FanDuel, says 75% of the money is on the Browns after the sharps pounded the Browns -2.5 to -3.
An interesting way to look at the NFL betting-sphere is to note if the market shifts over the course of a week.
Here are the most drastic changes for Week 11 (via FanDuel):
Lions at Bears (-3)
- Lions on Wednesday 83%
- Lions on Friday 66%
- Difference: 17%
Ravens (-10.5) at Bengals
- Ravens on Wednesday: 90%
- Ravens on Friday: 68%
- Difference: 23%
Bills at Browns (-2.5)
- Bills on Wednesday: 90%
- Bills on Friday: 63%
- Difference: 27%
Shakin’ In My Naked Cowboy Boots
The 2-7 New York Giants are one of the most steady favorites in Week 11. How is a two-win team this popular? Because they are playing the 1-7 New York Jets.
On Wednesday, 95% of the money at PointsBet was on the Giants. That number has ticked down to 80%, but it’s clear that Big Blue will be the more popular side in this terrible matchup.
If you haven’t heard, the folks at PointsBet are offering you +110, the best odds in America for this game, if you go up against me as part of their #FadeRovell promotion.
I have the Giants, so if the Jets cover, not only will you win more money, but I will go as the “Naked Cowboy” on Times Square on Monday.
Our experts — Stuckey, Collin Wilson and Chris Raybon are all on the Jets to cover, so I’m not feeling too good about my chances.
Perhaps the only person with more at stake in this game than me is a bettor at the Westgate who put down $22,000 to win $20,000 on the Giants.