Ultimate Week 10 NFL Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game

Ultimate Week 10 NFL Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mike Evans, Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey

  • See our staff's betting picks and predictions for every NFL Week 10 game.
  • We'll analyze the betting odds for Bills-Browns, Panthers-Packers and more.

Should you buy the Dolphins following their first win of 2019? Should you fade the Ravens off their big victory of the Patriots? Which home underdog is worth backing?

Our experts are here to help you find the best betting angles for Week 10. Here are all the games they’ll hit on:

  • Giants at Jets: 1 p.m. ET
  • Falcons at Saints: 1 p.m. ET
  • Chiefs at Titans: 1 p.m. ET
  • Ravens at Bengals: 1 p.m. ET
  • Bills at Browns: 1 p.m. ET
  • Cardinals at Buccaneers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Lions at Bears: 1 p.m. ET
  • Dolphins at Colts: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Panthers at Packers: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Rams at Steelers: 4:25 p.m. ET

See how they’re betting all 10, complete with analysis of the biggest matchups and much more. (Including picks for every game.)


Go To: NYG-NYJ | ATL-NO | KC-TEN | BAL-CIN | BUF-CLE | ARI-TB | DET-CHI | MIA-IND | CAR-GB | LAR-PIT


Giants at Jets Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Giants -2.5
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

It’s been a rough season for both New York teams with a combined record of 2-7 straight up and against the spread at MetLife stadium.

Though neither team has been an offensive juggernaut, this total has risen from 41.5 at opening to 44.5 as of Thursday with 67% betting tickets backing the over. Should you put your trust and money with the public?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, from the biggest mismatch to projected odds and more.


All odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Giants-Jets Injury Report

It’s always tricky to tell how healthy the Jets are because most weeks they list 15-plus players on their injury report, and a significant chunk still end up playing. They’re expected to be without linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin) again, and Le’Veon Bell (knee) is expected to suit up after returning to practice on Thursday.

The Giants, meanwhile, are expected to be without two of their key offensive players in Sterling Shepard (concussion) and Evan Engram (foot). Golden Tate is the most appealing receiving option since he’s seen 36 targets over the past four weeks. Justin Bailey

Note: All injury info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Jamison Crowder vs. Giants Slot Corners

The slot has been an issue all season long for the Giants. They finally benched Grant Haley, an undrafted second-year corner from Penn State who allowed 31-of-36 targets in his coverage to be completed for 353 yards, second-most among slot corners, per Pro Football Focus. Unsurprisingly, Haley’s PFF coverage grade is abysmal at 45.5, 107th among corners.

Taking over for Haley is Corey Ballentine, a 2019 sixth-round pick out of Washburn. Ballentine has more raw coverage ability than Haley, Ballentine has only played 10 snaps on defense all season prior to last week and will suffer growing pains against a technician like Crowder.

Lost in the Jets’ disaster season is that Crowder has done work, turning in three games with at least six catches and 80 yards among the five he’s played with Sam Darnold, including a 14-catch game against the Bills in Week 1.

Ballentine’s PFF coverage grade thus far has dipped below freezing at an ice cold 28.8, and he’ll be vulnerable not only in man coverage, but when the Giants run their zone and zone mach concepts.

The one thing Haley had going for him was over 800 snaps of experience, and adding a new piece to the mix exacerbates potential miscommunication issues that have plagued first-round pick DeAndre Baker, who recently admitted that he has no idea what he is doing. — Chris Raybon


Darren Rovell loves the Giants to cover against the Jets this week. PointsBet is giving everyone in New Jersey boosted odds to bet the other side — Jets +2.5 (+110).


Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Giants -1.5
  • Projected Total: 43

After an embarrassing defeat to the Dolphins, the market has completely given up on the Jets. They’ve now fallen into the Bengals/Redskins bucket of the my power ratings, which is only one step above the Dolphins.

One unique aspect of this matchup is that despite the Giants being the “away” team, they also call MetLife home. In fact, after playing at home in Week 9, the Giants don’t have to travel at all while the Jets are traveling back from Miami. It’s a unique situation for which I all but wiped out the Jets’ home-field advantage.

I’m still showing about a point of value, but the difference from 2.5 to 1.5 is not enough, so I’m passing on this spread.Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Jets are struggling offensively — Sam Darnold and Co. have been held to 18 or fewer points in three consecutive games.

As a result, the Jets are home underdogs to the Giants, and there’s lopsided action on the the G-Men to cover. While this may seem like a good time to fade Gang Green’s inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.

Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued as teams to regress to the mean throughout the season. This is especially true against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 162-113-69 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,526 following this strategy. John Ewing


PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.


Expert Pick

Mike Randle: Under 44.5

As of writing, 67% of the bets and 39% of the money is on the over in the battle of New York (see live public betting data here). Both offenses have shown a propensity for turnovers with the Giants (-10) and Jets (-7) in the negative for turnover differential on the season.

More importantly, the respective offensive lines have struggled to protect their quarterback. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most sacks (28), while the Jets have allowed the third-most (32) quarterback sacks on the season.

The Giants’ offense centers around running back Saquon Barkley, but the Jets should be able to limit his production with the second-best run defense DVOA in the league (per Football Outsiders). Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has experienced the normal rookie quarterback struggles, ranking first in intercept-able passes and danger plays as per Player Profiler.

The Jets offense is suffering through injury concerns with Bell and tight end Chris Herndon questionable. And the Giants will be without Shepard and Engram.

I’ll fade the public and take the under in a rivalry game between two poor offenses with injury concerns across the board. I’d bet this under down to 44.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Falcons at Saints Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Saints -13.5
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

With the Falcons off to a 1-7 start and the Saints looking like a Super Bowl contender, the NFC South’s biggest rivalry lacks its usual glitz heading into Week 10. The Saints are 13.5-point home favorites, but is that spread too big even with Drew Brees facing a decimated Atlanta secondary?

Our experts evaluate whether Matt Ryan’s potential return from injury will help the Falcons keep the game close or if Brees and a staunch Saints defense will blow out Dan Quinn’s disappointing Atlanta side.

Falcons-Saints Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Saints

There still isn’t an official word on Ryan (ankle), but he’s been able to get in limited practices, suggesting he could be trending toward playing. We’ll have a better idea on Friday.

Running back Ito Smith (neck) has remained out of practice, which will put a heavier workload on Devonta Freeman against a tough Saints run defense.

The Saints received some excellent news as Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle), Jared Cook (ankle) and Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) have all returned to full practice. The Saints’ 32 implied team total leads all teams by nearly four points.Justin Bailey

Alvin Kamara-TreQuan Smith-Michael Thomas
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alvin Kamara, Tre’Quan Smith, Michael Thomas

Biggest Mismatch

Saints Pass Offense vs. Falcons Pass Defense

In Week 8, Brees returned from his hand injury with a 373-yard, three-touchdown passing performance, and he should be ready and rested for the reeling 1-7 divisional rival Falcons off the Week 9 bye.

Game on.

Since 2015, Brees has averaged 304.8 yards and 2.12 touchdowns passing in his eight games against head coach Dan Quinn’s Falcons. In that same time, he’s also averaged 330.4 yards and 2.45 touchdowns at home.

Whenever Brees is at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, he’s usually unstoppable. And this year the Falcons look especially exploitable: They’re dead last in the league with a 36.4 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.

On top of that, the Falcons secondary is all jumbled. Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, IR) is out. No. 1 corner Desmond Trufant (toe) has missed three straight games and hasn’t returned to practice.

The Falcons radically reorganized their secondary in Week 8 to try and stabilize it: Ricardo Allen moved from free safety to strong safety; slot corner Damontae Kazee shifted to free safety; fourth-round backup corner Kendall Sheffield slid from the perimeter into the slot and special-teams veteran Blidi Wreh-Wilson started at left corner.

With two backup corners in the game and multiple defensive backs positioned at new spots, the Falcons secondary could struggle a lot as a coordinated unit of individual players who need to be on the same page.

Given his ability in general and his experience against this defense, Brees should be able to find open receivers with ease. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Saints -11.5
  • Projected Total: 51.5

Before the season started, we would’ve pegged this matchup as a battle for first place in the NFC South. But that’s not the case as the Falcons are 1-7 while the Saints are 7-1.

Teddy Bridgewater did a fantastic job filling in for Brees, going 5-0 in his starts. Still, we have to be cautious with the Saints, who are now 5-0 in one-score games while the Falcons are 1-3. As a result, the Falcons have a ridiculous +3.1 edge in expected wins vs. actual — a sign that this will be much closer than their two records indicate and the market is likely to offer value as a result.

Falcons +13.5 is the play here. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Saints have been the most profitable teams this season, covering the spread in six of their eight games and returning a profit of $395 for a $100 bettor. The Falcons have been the least profitable team going 2-6 against the spread, costing a $100 bettor $425.

Matt Ryan
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Ryan

A majority of spread tickets are on the Saints as double-digit favorites (see live public betting data here). This is not a surprise as gamblers love a team that has shown an ability to cash for bettors.

But history suggests gamblers shouldn’t expect each team to continue their usual ways. ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet teams with bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.

Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 171-104-9 (62.2%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,759 following this strategy.

Bettors are counting the Falcons out against the Saints, but history suggests Matty Ice can cover. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Mike Randle: Falcons +13.5

If Ryan returns, he should help the Atlanta offense back toward its usual production level even if he’s facing a stiff Saints defense. Plus, the Falcons-Saints game always provides an intense battle between two bitter rivals.

Their meetings have been decided by more than 14 points just twice over the past 18 matchups. In fact, over the last eight game the average margin of victory has only been 8.1 points.

With the Falcons pass defense injured and struggling, look for Atlanta to rely on their offense to keep pace with New Orleans. Before his injury in Week 7, Ryan eclipsed 300 passing yards in every game this season. With three games of three or more passing touchdowns, Ryan and the Falcons offense have enough firepower to keep this game under two touchdowns.

The Saints are receiving 60% of the bets but only 36% of the money, representing a clear sharp vs. square dichotomy. I’ll side with the money and grab Atlanta.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Chiefs at Titans Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Chiefs -5.5
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

In New Jersey? Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Patrick Mahomes could be back under center for the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, hence why they’re 5.5-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

But are they being overvalued as road favorites against the Tennesse Titans?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, from the biggest mismatch to how to bet the spread.

Chiefs-Titans Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Chiefs

The Chiefs are getting healthier with Mahomes (knee) returning to full practice. They could also get defensive lineman Frank Clark (neck), cornerback Kendall Fuller (thumb) and offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle) back with all returning to limited practice. However, none played last week despite limited practices, so there’s still a possibility some are held out.

One of the Titans’ more notable injuries is Corey Davis (hip), who hasn’t been able to practice after getting banged up in Week 9. His potential absence would free up 16% of their market share of targets.

The outlook for defensive lineman Jurrell Casey (shoulder), meanwhile, isn’t looking great with his continued absence in practice dating back to last week. Casey grades out as one of the best defensive linemen in the league, and he’s a key cog in their run defense. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Derrick Henry vs. Chiefs Run Defense

With Mahomes close to full health, the most pressing weakness for the Chiefs is their porous run defense. They rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have been gashed by opposing running backs at an average of 4.77 yards per carry. They’re also allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.

Derrick Henry
Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Henry

Henry tends to become more effective toward the end of season. Starting in Week 11 of 2018, Henry averaged 133 rushing yards and 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game. This is a prime spot for Henry to receive a ton of volume as the Titans will need to keep Mahomes off the field.

Kansas City’s pass defense has been one of the most underrated units in the NFL, currently ranking fourth in pass defense DVOA, even more efficient than Buffalo. With conservative quarterback Ryan Tannehill under center, the Titans are averaging only 196 passing yards per game.

The Titans would be foolish to challenge Kansas City through the air more than necessary.

Henry is one of the NFL’s most elusive running backs with the third-most evaded tackles (57) per PlayerProfiler. At 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, he presents the biggest mismatch against a Chiefs run defense that recently allowed 5.2 yards per carry to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 4.6 to Houston’s Carlos Hyde and 4.6 to  Indianapolis’ Marlon Mack. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chiefs -4.5
  • Projected Total: 47.5

Mahomes appears set to return from a knee injury that’s kept him out of the past two games. The Chiefs managed to go 1-1 without him, and while the market appeared to value him as being worth seven to eight points to the spread, I’m hesitant to give them the full points back quite yet as he isn’t likely to be 100% quite yet.

There’s a chance he could have limited mobility on Sunday. And while he isn’t necessarily known for his rushing ability, he does use his legs to avoid pressure, extend plays and buy time for his receivers to get open for a huge play. We might not see that Mahomes in Tennessee, but a more conservative version.

One silver lining regarding his knee injury is that the time off has likely allowed him to overcome an ankle injury that had been nagging him previously. Getting that ankle closer to 100% could be the blessing in disguise. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Koerner: Titans +5.5

There’s some slight value on the Titans getting 5.5 points here if it appears Mahomes will be less than 100%. There’s also a non-zero possibility Mahomes has an in-game setback, forcing the Chiefs to bring Matt Moore back in.

If Moore were to start, the line would be closer to Titans -2.5 to -3, so there’s some hidden upside taking the Titans here as a result.


Ravens at Bengals Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Ravens -10
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens head to winless Cincinnati after dominating the Patriots last Sunday. Does that mean Baltimore will decimate the hapless Bengals?

Our experts analyze how bad the Bengals defense is, how versatile the Ravens rushing attack has become and whether this double-digit spread is worth a bet.

Ravens-Bengals Injury Report

The Bengals will be without A.J. Green (ankle) indefinitely. They could also be without starting cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) since he has yet to practice, so it could be a long day for the Bengals on both sides of the ball.

Jackson missed practice on Thursday with an illness, but there doesn’t appear to be any worry about him missing the game. Offensive linemen Marshal Yanda (illness) and Ronnie Stanley (knee) both returned to practice on Thursday after sitting out on Wednesday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Ravens RBs vs. Bengals LBs

I could literally copy and paste my Ravens-Bengals analysis from Week 6, update a few numbers and add a few sentences, because these teams pretty much are now what they were then.

In Jackson’s 16 career starts, the Ravens have had a 1940s-esque 57.2% run rate. This season, they’re No. 1 with 1,639 yards rushing and No. 2 with a 54% rushing success rate.

As we saw in their dominant 37-20 victory over the Patriots, the Ravens don’t run just to keep opposing defenses honest; the Ravens run to win. And even though Jackson does plenty of damage on the ground, Baltimore’s stable of running backs is a complete and productive group.

bengals-ravens-betting-odds-picks-predictions-nfl-week 6-2019
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mark Ingram

Last year, the Bengals allowed the second-most production to opposing backfields with 170.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. This year, they have somehow gotten worse with 177 yards and 1.38 touchdowns allowed.

Almost every back with eight carries against them this year has gone off, and the Ravens have three backs in Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill who could legitimately see eight rushes.

Linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown are especially to blame for the Bengals’ generosity to opposing backs. They have both been exposed on the ground and in coverage.

The Bengals are No. 29 in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. They are at their worst in the intermediate range of the field, where they rank No. 32 with 1.51 second-level yards allowed per run: Once opposing backs get 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the Bengals linebackers have been incapable of limiting yardage.

To make matters worse, the Bengals are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA against running backs, just as they were last year.

On the ground or through the air, they can’t stop anyone.

Vigil and Brown specifically have been among the worst defenders on the team, and that’s reflected in their Pro Football Focus grades.

  • Nick Vigil: 50.4 overall, 47.6 run defense, 56.1 coverage
  • Preston Brown: 44.5 overall, 41.7 run defense, 52.4 coverage

The Ravens backs should smash.

In Jackson’s two starts against the Bengals — in Week 11 last season, Week 6 this season — the Ravens have had 267 and 269 yards rushing. Some of those yards clearly went to Jackson, but if the Ravens were to get out to a big lead and give the ball almost exclusively to their backs for much of this game, there’s little doubt they’d have success.

Even if Jackson gets his usual cut of the ground market, there should still be enough rushing production plus receiving work for multiple Ravens backs to have big games. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Ravens -10
  • Projected Total: 44.5

The Ravens upset the Patriots in a convincing primetime victory while the 0-8 Bengals will be turning to their rookie quarterback Ryan Finley this week. It’s pretty safe to assume sportsbooks will be flooded with Baltimore tickets, and so far it looks like 64% of spread tickets have come in on the Ravens (see live public betting data here).

This sets up a classic “trap” game in which the Ravens could overlook the Bengals to focus on their showdown with the 6-3 Texans the following week. If you’re the type of bettor who likes to root for the same team as the house, back the Bengals here. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Ravens have won four straight including an impressive 37-20 defeat of the previously undefeated Patriots. Baltimore has also made cashing tickets look easy at times this season with an average cover rate of 5.5 points per game.

A majority of spread tickets are on the Ravens as of writing despite being a double-digit road favorite. That is expected given the team’s impressive win over the Pats and Baltimore’s ability to cover for bettors.

However, against-the-spread records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet against teams that have covered the spread by a big margin.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 312-240-16 (56.5%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,149 following this strategy.

It’ll be difficult for most casual bettors to fade the Ravens after their thumping of the Patriots, but history suggests bettors should take the points with the Bengals. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Bengals +10

Last week was fun when my team (the Ravens) won and covered for us. But it’s money first, and we are going against Baltimore after that emotional win.

Yes, it’s a great situational spot for the Bengals, who are coming off a bye and seeking their first win of the season against a division rival. And with a new QB under center, I expect a spirited effort from the last winless team in the NFL.

The Bengals aren’t good by any stretch but they are better than what the market has been implying this season. Just take a look at some of their competitive losses (and covers) this season against winning teams:

  • Lost by one at Seattle
  • Lost by two at Buffalo
  • Lost by six at Baltimore

Bottom line: This line simply came out too high. There’s a high risk of a flat spot for Baltimore after such an emotional win, which Cincinnati could take advantage of early against a potentially sleepy Ravens team.

As my colleague Matthew Freedman described, the Bengals’ horrid linebackers do scare me against Baltimore’s elite rushing attack (and tight ends), but anything 10 or above is too high to pass up on.

Nick Vigil
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Vigil

This is the second time Cincinnati will face the unique Baltimore offense, which can only work in the Bengals favor. We saw how much the Chargers benefited from seeing the Ravens earlier in the season in their playoff win last year.

Also, remember: Cincinnati was +11 at Baltimore just a few weeks ago and covered in Charm City.

Yes, we have a new QB under center, but I don’t think the drop-off is anywhere close to 6-7 points from what I saw of Finley in college. The Bengals will also have the benefit of two weeks to prepare and the element of surprise as the Ravens don’t really know what to expect with the rookie signal caller.

Lastly, the Ravens usually hold a significant special teams edge each week but Cincinnati’s special teams unit has been superb this season. Per Football Outsiders, the Bengals rank No. 1 in special teams, led by a dynamic kick return unit that the Ravens should know all about (Brandon Wilson returned the opening kick for a touchdown against Baltimore in their first meeting). I still give the nod to Baltimore’s special teams unit but this is not an overwhelming mismatch by any stretch as it has been in recent years.

Take the double digits with a desperate home dog off a bye in a divisional game against a rival that may come out sleep-walking for a series or two.

For you trend players: This isn’t a huge sample size, but it’s interesting to note that teams that beat the Patriots and then open as favorites of seven of more their next game are 0-8 ATS since 2003.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Bills at Browns Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Browns -2.5
  • Over/Under: 40
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Browns are on four-game losing streak in the midst of what was supposed to be great season. They’ll look to right the ship at home against the Bills, who are trending in the opposite direction.

Cleveland is the favorite in this matchup, but bettors are heavily backing Buffalo with more than 70% of betting tickets taking the road team as of writing. Should you go against the public and roll with the Browns?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, from the biggest mismatch to how to bet the spread.

Bills-Browns Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bills

Unless something changes between now and Friday, the Bills are trending toward having everyone healthy on Sunday.

Edge defender Olivier Vernon (knee) is the main person of interest on the Browns; he hasn’t practiced yet this week. His potential absence would be good news for Josh Allen since Vernon leads the team in quarterback hurries and hits, and is second on the team in pressures. Justin Bailey

Fantasy-Football-Half PPR-Rankings-Week-1-2019
Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Chubb

Biggest Mismatch

Nick Chubb (& Kareem Hunt) vs. Buffalo’s Run Defense

The Bills are thought to have a good defense, but a soft schedule has masked their issues with defending the run. Buffalo is currently fielding the league’s 30th-ranked run defense in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and allowing 4.57 yards per carry to backs (24th).

During a three-play stretch in the second quarter last week, Adrian Peterson partied like it was 2009 on the Bills defense, rattling off gains of 18, 17, and 28 on successive plays. Overall, he finished with 18 carries for 108 yards (6.0 yards per carry).

The week prior, it was Miles Sanders housing it from five yards out to finish with a 3-74-1 line, while Jordan Howard (23-96-1) and Boston Scott (5-6-1) also scored.

In Chubb, the Browns have the second-place leader in rushing yards per game and now they also get Hunt, who won the 2017 rushing title as a rookie with 1,327 yards.

As we saw in New England, the Browns can royally screw up simple things like putting the ball in Chubb’s gut, but this is a prime opportunity for Kitchens to right the Titanic.

Despite being 2-6 and going up against 6-2 Bills, the Browns (24th) rank one spot better than the Bills (25th) in overall DVOA, while Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System gives the Bills a 0.6 edge-point on a neutral field, which explains why Buffalo is a dog on the road despite the four-win advantage. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Browns -3
  • Projected Total: 40.5

I faded the Browns against the Broncos purely because I didn’t think the drop-off from Joe Flacco to Brandon Allen should not be worth 5.5 points (which is roughly how much the market moved the line).

But I think buying low on the Browns here make sense. They’re now -0.6 wins below their Pythagorean win expectation while the Bills are 1.1 wins over their own. That’s a net of +1.7 wins in favor of Cleveland.

The Browns are one of the biggest disappointments of 2019, but I’m ready to start buying low as they’re still an above-average team on paper and could start putting it all together this week.

It’s key to get them at -2.5 as we want to lock that in before it moves up to the key number of 3. Despite 73% of spread tickets coming in on the Bills as of writing (see live public betting data here), the line does appear to be moving toward -3, a clear sign that sharps are likely backing the Browns here as well. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Bills have been one of the surprise teams this season starting 6-2 and more importantly for bettors covering the spread in five of eight games. The Browns, on the other hand, were expected to contender for a Super Bowl but are 2-6 straight up and against the spread.

Given each team’s recent performance on the field and at the ticket window, a majority of spread tickets are on the Bills to cover. This is not a surprise as gamblers love a team that has shown an ability to cash for bettors.

But history suggests gamblers shouldn’t expect each team to continue their covering ways. ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet teams with bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.

Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 171-104-9 (62.2%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,759 following this strategy.

Bettors are counting Cleveland out against Buffalo, but history suggests gamblers shouldn’t be surprised if Baker Mayfield and the Browns cover. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Browns -2.5

This is my favorite buy-low/sell-high spot of the weekend.

Yes, the Bills are 6-2, but they’ve beat absolutely nobody: Jets, Giants, Dolphins, Bengals, Redskins, Titans. They have six wins with an almost impossibly low strength of victory of .176 for that many wins. In the AFC, only the Dolphins and Bengals have lower SOV’s and that’s because they’ve combined for exactly one win, which came over the lowly Jets.

The Bills pass defense has played at a high level — albeit against mostly poor quarterbacks — thanks to safeties who give up nothing deep and a solid group of corners, and I expect that to continue barring injuries.

However, the run defense is very vulnerable, which you saw the Eagles exploit a few weeks ago.

In a game that should feature windy conditions, I trust Chubb and the Cleveland rushing attack much more than Buffalo. There aren’t many quarterbacks I trust less than Mayfield right now — he’s been as bad as people are saying; just look at his horrid numbers when he’s not being pressure — but I’d still take him and his group of receivers over Allen and the Bills.

When the Bills went to New England in windy conditions a few weeks ago, the game plan was to feed Chubb against a great pass defense and vulnerable run defense. And if not for some flukey turnovers, they may have pulled out a win. I think that’s the plan again on Sunday (with a few shots downfield) for a Cleveland squad that ranks second in the NFL at 5.2 yards per rush.

Buy low on the Brownies to pick up a home win against a severely overrated Bills bunch that has six wins thanks to a cupcake schedule.

Also, keep your eye out for the impact of hidden yardage, especially in the punt game, as the Browns have the significantly better special teams.

Points may come at a premium in this one, so I actually threw the Browns moneyline in a parlay with the Colts moneyline, but will also be on the Browns -2.5/3. Anything at 3 or under is good in my book.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Cardinals at Buccaneers Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Buccaneers -4.5
  • Over/Under: 52
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

In a likely high-scoring matchup featuring two flawed passing defenses, the Cardinals and Buccaneers have the highest total of Week 10.

As of Thursday, the Cardinals are attracting more than 60% of betting tickets despite being road underdogs — they are 3-1 in that situation this season.

Can the Cardinals continue to cover on the road? Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, from the biggest mismatch to how to bet the spread.

Cardinals-Buccaneers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both are pretty healthy

David Johnson (ankle) is practicing in full, but head coach Kliff Kingsbury said they wanted to “be smart” with his workload. With newly acquired Kenyan Drake on board, it’ll be interesting to see how the Cardinals divvy up their workloads.

O.J. Howard (hamstring) should be ready to return after he returned to full practice this week, and their head coach said he should be ready to roll. He’s healthy just in time for one of the best matchups for tight ends as the Cardinals have struggled all year to slow them down. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Patrick Peterson vs. Mike Evans

Arizona’s pass defense has struggled all season, currently ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). The return of  Peterson was supposed to provide help, but that has not been the case.

Since returning from his six game suspension, Peterson is only the 81st ranked cornerback per Pro Football Focus. He will likely shadow Evans, whose production puts him squarely in the argument as the NFL’s top wide receiver.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Peterson, Mike Evans

Evans is averaging 22 fantasy points per game, second among all wideouts. He ranks first in completed air yards and first in deep targets (PlayerProfiler). Always a mega-producer in receiving yards, Evans currently ranks second (842) while also ranking first overall in total target distance at the position.

Over the past two weeks? Evans has finished as the overall WR2 and WR1 consecutively.

Arizona has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game this season, with opponents totaling an average of 280.7 yards through the air per game. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bucs -5
  • Projected Total: 54

Introducing the Bruce Arians Bowl.

Due to some bad schedule luck, the Buccaneers haven’t played at home since Week 3. They went 1-4 on a brutal five-game road trip (one was technically on a “neutral” field in London). So there’s some value backing them in their first game back as the market is likely underrating them based on their grueling recent stretch.

However, I’m eyeing this total, which has strangely dropped from 53 to 52. As of writing, 59% of the money is on the under (see live public betting data here), which has warranted the point drop. Still, I’m having a hard time figuring out why the public would be attacking the under here. We have two of the fastest-paced teams — the Cardinals are first, the Buccaneers are seventh — and a pair of offenses that should be able to attack the opposing defenses.

The only case for the under is the potential positive game script for the Bucs in which they can lean on the run game a bit and prevent Jameis Winston from turning the ball over, thus protecting the lead. But it’s not enough for me to back off what I believe is value on the over. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Cardinals have been one of the most profitable teams this season, covering the spread in six of their nine games. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have struggled to cash tickets only covering in two games.

A majority of spread tickets are on the Cardinals as underdogs at the time of writing. This is not a surprise as gamblers love a team that has shown an ability to cash for bettors.

But history suggests gamblers shouldn’t expect each team to continue their covering ways. Team’s records against the spread tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet teams with bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.

Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 171-104-9 (62.2%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,759 following this strategy.

Bettors are counting the Bucs out against the Cardinals, but history suggests Jameis Winston and Co. can cover. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Randle: Buccaneers -4.5

The Buccaneers’ defense has been a pass funnel all season. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has assembled the top run defense in the NFL, ranking first in run defense DVOA. Tampa Bay only allows 78.1 rushing yards per game.

This will put a premium on the Arizona passing game and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. While the Oklahoma-product has flashed potential, he also has failed to throw a touchdown pass in four of his past six games.

In fact, in four road games this season, Murray has yet to throw a touchdown and has averaged just 16.5 fantasy points per game.

As I noted above, Arizona’s pass defense has not received the boost it expected with the return of Peterson. I’ll take the Buccaneers to cover the -4.5 at home against a Cardinals team that has yet to produce a quality road passing performance this season.

I would bet this line up to Buccaneers -5.5

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Lions at Bears Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Bears -2.5
  • Over/Under: 41.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Chicago Bears will host the Detroit Lions as small favorites in an NFC North showdown on Sunday, though a slight majority is backing Matthew Stafford and Co. to cover on the road. But is that the best betting edge?

Our staff breaks down every angle of this game, featuring comprehensive matchup analysis and picks.

Lions-Bears Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bears

The Bears continue their healthy streak with only defensive lineman Eddie Goldman (thigh) listed on their injury report. And he practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday, so he’s trending in the right direction.

Matthew Stafford (hip/back) has been limited in practice all week, but he’s not expected to be in jeopardy of missing this game. They also have one key defensive injury with safety Tracy Walker missing practice all week with a knee injury. Walker owns the eighth-best Pro Football Focus grade in pass coverage among safeties this season. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Matthew Stafford vs. Mitch Trubisky

This isn’t rocket science — the biggest mismatch is at quarterback.

Matthew Stafford-Mitch Trubisky
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matthew Stafford-Mitch Trubisky

I don’t think either team will have much success on the ground on a cold and slightly windy day at Soldier Field. Points may come at a premium, which means this game could be decided by which quarterback makes more plays down the field through the air. And the clear advantage goes to the Lions, who have the much better quarterback and the more dangerous weapons on the outside.

Both offenses rank outside the top 25 in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA. And while the Bears’ passing offense has performed poorly all season, the Lions have a top-five passing offense. Pro Football Focus also has both rated in the bottom-five of rush offenses (with Chicago dead last), as well as the Bears rated in the bottom-five of pass offenses and the Lions inside the top 10.

Now, due to some injuries and personnel moves, Detroit’s defense has been slipping in recent weeks and Chicago has the much better overall defense, so the Bears aren’t completely helpless in this game — especially once you add in some weather, home-field advantage and a healthier team. But from a pure mismatch perspective, the biggest one is at QB.

Per PFF, among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 drop backs this season, Stafford has a passing grade ranked seventh out of 35 qualified quarterbacks. Trubisky ranks 33rd, ahead of only Sam Darnold and Luke Falk. Stafford also ranks third in QB Rating in a clean pocket while Trubisky ranks 25th, which is important for Sunday because the Lions don’t generate much pressure (they’re 28th in adjusted sack rate). Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bears -2.5
  • Projected Total: 43

Trubisky could be playing for his job as the pressure for the Bears to turn to Chase Daniel is building. The offense has been dysfunctional all season and they’re built to win now. If Trubisky doesn’t show some promise on Sunday, I think there’s a real possibility we see Daniel start in Week 11.

The total dropping from 43 to 41.5 has opened some value on the over.

As of writing, 60% of the tickets and 93% of the money has poured in on the under (see live public betting data here), making me think there’s a real chance this can dip to 41 or even 40.5. Forty and 41 are such key numbers for over/unders that it’s worth waiting to see if that happens. If it does, I’ll likely bite the over as this matchup sets up nicely for a higher-scoring environment than people realize.

The Lions have become a pass-heavy team ever since Kerryon Johnson was placed on Injured Reserve. They’ve made no real effort to address the position and currently have a committee pass-catching backs, resulting in back-to-back overs.

The Bears will likely attack the Lions on the ground, where they’ve given up 120 or more scrimmage yards to a running back in all but one game this season, so rookie RB David Montgomery could have a huge game and help the Bears move the ball despite their poor QB play.

Give me the over if it dips to the 40.5-41 range. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Matthew Freedman: Lions +2.5

Put simply, I don’t think the Bears will be able to keep up with the Lions offensively.

In six of their eight games, the Lions have scored at least 24 points, and the Bears defense — though still good — is not the fearsome unit it was last season. Meanwhile, the Bears have scored as many as 24 points just twice.

The Lions are No. 27 with a 61.0 PFF run defense grade, and I expect that the Bears will want to lean heavily on Montgomery in order to hide their regressing third-year quarterback.

But the running game can only carry an offense so far, and the Bears don’t have a strong running game anyway: They’re No. 26 in rushing success rate (per Sharp Football Stats). On defense, the Lions are No. 28 in rushing success rate. So as bad as the Lions are against the run, the Bears aren’t that much better at running the ball.

And on offense, the Lions should be able to move down the field. Since their Week 5 bye, the Lions have dramatically shifted toward the passing game, moving from a 54.6% pass play rate in Weeks 1-4 to a 65.5% mark in Weeks 6-9. That’s significant because I think the Bears are overrated in pass defense. They rank No. 21 in pass success rate allowed, while the Lions are No. 10 in the metric on offense.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Fuller, Kenny Golladay

I specifically think that wide receiver Kenny Golladay will have his way against the Bears corners. For the season, he’s No. 2 with 145.8 air yards and yards after the catch combined and No. 4 with 1.38 end-zone targets per game (per AirYards.com and PFF).

Golladay is getting high-value usage, and he’s making the most of it: Since the bye, he has a 16-397-3 receiving line in four games. And last year, he was 11-168-1 in two games against the Bears.

The connection between Stafford and Golladay is the real difference in this game. That the Lions also have wide receivers Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola and tight end T.J. Hockenson is just a bonus.

Not that there’s anything wrong with Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson … but there’s definitely something wrong with the guy throwing to him.

I would bet this to a pick’em. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Dolphins at Colts Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Colts -11
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Dolphins are coming off their first win of 2019, but are they a good bet this week?

Jacoby Brissett (knee) will likely be a game-time decision meaning Brian Hoyer will be the Colts’ starting QB if Brissett can’t go. Our experts think that the uncertainty surrounding the Indianapolis QB situation means that coach Frank Reich will devise a ground-heavy game plan against the Dolphins’ weak run defense.

Let’s dig into their analysis and see how our staff is betting this spread.

Dolphins-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Dolphins

Running back Mark Walton was suspended for four games earlier in the week and Miami will also likely be without cornerback Ken Webster (ankle), who hasn’t returned to practice this week. Other than that, everyone else is trending towards playing since most players on their injury report have at least got in limited practices.

T.Y. Hilton (calf) still hasn’t returned to practice and is expected to be out again. Wide receiver Parris Campbell (hand) also hasn’t resumed practicing since he had hand surgery, leaving Zach Pascal, Chester Rogers and Deon Cain to run in 3-WR sets.

colts-steelers-betting-odds-pick-preview-nfl-week 9-2019
Photo credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacoby Brissett

Surprisingly, Brissett (knee) hasn’t missed any practice despite spraining his MCL last week against the Steelers. It certainly seems like he’s trending towards playing, but we’ll have a better idea once we get statuses on Friday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Colts RBs vs. Dolphins LBs

Whether the Colts go with an injured Brissett or an aging Hoyer at quarterback, I expect they will rely on their running backs to ease the load. That’s a wise decision: The Dolphins have been horrible against opposing backfields this year.

Teams facing the 1-7 Dolphins have had lots of positive game script, which has inflated their rushing numbers, but the Dolphins have allowed a league-high 134.3 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs this season. They’re No. 31 in running back rushing success rate allowed with a 56% mark (per Sharp Football Stats). And they are even worse in pass defense against running backs, who have a league-high 65% receiving success rate against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins have major issues in the middle of their defense. Their two primary linebackers have very poor Pro Football Focus run defense and coverage grades.

  • Jerome Baker: 523 snaps, 44.1 run defense, 61.2 coverage
  • Sam Eguavoen: 377 snaps, 41.2 run defense, 51.2 coverage

With such a unit, it’s not a surprise that the Dolphins are No. 31 against the run and No. 32 against running backs in the passing game (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA).

Running back Marlon Mack is No. 2 in the league with 19.9 carries per game, and the Colts are No. 4 with a 46.8% run rate. I expect Mack to be used heavily. In his 16 games as a favorite, Mack has averaged 83.9 yards and 0.81 touchdowns from scrimmage on 16.3 carries and two targets per game.

And change-of-pace back Nyheim Hines could also get in on the action. Primarily used as a receiver, Hines did little for the first two weeks of the season, but over the past six games, Hines has had a regular role, pitching in with 3.8 targets and 2.2 carries per game. Six opportunities per game isn’t a lot, but against the Dolphins, that might be enough for Hines to chip in 50-plus yards.

As big home favorites against a subpar defense, Mack and Hines could combine for a 150-yard, two-touchdown performance. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Colts -11.5
  • Projected Total: 43.5

With the Dolphins coming off their first win of 2019 with a 26-18 victory over the Jets last week, the public appears willing to back them against the Colts here.

As of Thursday evening, 55% of tickets are coming in on Miami (see live public betting data here). Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Sean Koerner: Colts -11

The main question here is: How big is the drop-off from Brissett to Brian Hoyer?

Brissett is now listed as questionable, but I’m assuming the Colts will sit him in an attempt to get him 100% for next week, so I’ll dock their power rating by four points if Hoyer starts.

Still, given that the market is currently offering slight value on the Colts, it makes sense to take this line in hopes that Brissett ends up suiting up. In that event, I can see the line bumping up to the -14.5 range.

I’m personally timing it so that if Brissett is announced as probable, I’ll bet it before they pull the line off the board.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Panthers at Packers Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Packers -5.5
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Green Bay Packers struggled in last week’s 26-11 loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles. But the public isn’t shying away from backing Aaron Rodgers and Co. as 5.5-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers, with more than 50% of spread tickets and money coming in on Green Bay.

Should you back the Pack to bounce back and cover, too?

Our experts break down every angle of this game, complete with comprehensive matchup analysis and a staff pick.

Panthers-Packers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

Green Bay’s injury report looks pretty good compared to prior weeks. Davante Adams (toe) has been limited, but that’s to be expected — the same goes for Marquez Valdes Scantling (knee/ankle). I wouldn’t expect either to miss this game.

Safety Adrian Amos (hamstring) is the biggest injury to watch on defense after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He’s second on the team in tackles behind linebacker Blake Martinez.

Christian McCaffrey (knee) missed practice on Wednesday but returned to limited practice on Thursday. This appears to be the new norm for him. There could be some good news for the Packers’ offense since defensive lineman Vernon Butler (back) and cornerback James Bradberry (groin) haven’t practiced. Justin Bailey

titans-vs-panthers-odds-picks-predictions-week 9-2019
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey

Biggest Mismatch

Both Rush Offenses vs. Both Run Defenses

I love the Green Bay secondary and edge pressure, which is one of the reasons the Pack were my only preseason future. It’s a defense built to stop today’s modern passing offenses.

But the Packers need to do something about their run defense before the postseason. It’s a major liability. And the source of the problem? The defensive line, which ranks dead last in adjusted line yards and inside the bottom 10 in almost every other advanced metric that analyzes run defense performance.

For the season, Green Bay has allowed 4.7 yards per carry (25th in the NFL) and ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA.

The Packers have been gashed by competent rushing attacks all season and now get McCaffrey.

The story is very similar with the Panthers, who have a secondary playing at a high level but a rush defense that is not. In fact, you could argue Carolina has had the worst opponent-adjusted rush defense in the NFL so far this season.

The Panthers rank 32nd in rush defense DVOA and have allowed 5.1 yards per carry, which is tied with the Bengals for worst in the league. That’s not a good omen vs. a Packers backfield led by Aaron Jones. I think the Panthers really miss DT Kawann Short, who was placed on IR at the beginning of October.

The bottom line: Both teams should move the ball on the ground with ease, so this will likely come down to which has more success in the red zone. And in a matchup of two solid rushing attacks, you have to give the nod to the better QB in Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers offense has been statistically better than the Panthers in the red zone in regards to touchdown rate. And Green Bay’s defense has been superior by a wide margin, allowing touchdowns on only 48.28% of opponent red-zone trips (sixth in the NFL) compared to Carolina allowing touchdowns on a league-high 69.23% of opponent trips inside the 20. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -5.5
  • Projected Total: 47.5

I faded the Packers last week, but it was mostly a result of buying low on the Chargers — I did not expect the Packers to roll over as badly as they did.

They should bounce back at home, but I’m not seeing any value in the spread or total here; both look spot on and betting behavior looks fairly balanced.

This game is a pass for me. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Matthew Freedman: Panthers +5.5

To me, this game comes down to the various matchups of offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses.

The Packers offense is built around Rodgers. He’s the greatest strength of the unit. In Pro Football Focus grades, the Packers offense is No. 3 in passing but No. 12 in rushing.

But the Panthers defense is unquestionably good against the pass. That’s perhaps their greatest strength. They’re No. 3 in pass defense DVOA and No. 4 in PFF coverage grade. Fourth-year cornerback James Bradberry is becoming a true shutdown cover man: He’s allowed a 54.5% catch rate this season and no receiving touchdowns.

I expect Bradberry to shadow Adams, who is still dealing with a turf toe injury and looked like a diminished version of himself in his return to action last week.

James Bradberry
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Bradberry (24)

The Panthers’ run defense is not good. In fact, it’s No. 32 in DVOA. But I think that number might be overstating how bad the unit is. The Panthers are No. 13 in PFF run defense grade, and ever since the Panthers lost the run-stuffing Short (he last played in Week 2), they have still been No. 14 against running backs in early-down rush success rate allowed.

I’m sure the Packers will try to use running backs Jones and Jamaal Williams to move the ball systematically down the field, but they might have less success than expected.

As for the Panthers pass offense — it’s not great. The Panthers are No. 29 in PFF passing grade, but at least wide receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are dynamic playmakers with the ability to occupy a defense and open up space underneath for passes to McCaffrey.

And in targeting McCaffrey — the league’s most consistently productive pass-catching back (6.2 receptions per game since last season) — the Panthers will probably have success. Packers linebackers Blake Martinez and B.J. Goodson have PFF coverage grades of 60.1 and 60.8 and have collectively allowed an 87.5% catch rate.

And as a runner, McCaffrey is gonna get fed. He’s No. 1 in the league with 20.6 carries and 110.1 yards rushing per game. The Panthers are No. 5 in rush offense DVOA. But the Packers are only No. 26 in rush defense DVOA.

The difference in this game is that the Panthers’ greatest offensive strength matches up precisely with the Packers’ greatest defensive weakness: Their inability to stop running backs.

McCaffrey leads the league with 1,244 yards and 13 touchdowns from scrimmage. As it happens, the Packers have allowed 1,424 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage to opposing backfields. If the Packers make opposing backfields look like McCaffrey … what will McCaffrey look like when he faces them? A winner.

I’d bet on the Panthers to +4. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Rams at Steelers Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Rams -3.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point road favorites for Sunday’s clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers with more than 70% of bettors backing Jared Goff and Co. to cover. But is that the best betting edge in this game?

Our experts analyze every angle of the matchup, featuring a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Rams-Steelers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Neither

The Steelers are expected to be without James Conner (shoulder), leaving Jaylen Samuels to see another increased workload. He was heavily utilized in the passing game last week, catching 13-of-13 targets while seeing eight carries.

It’s also worth noting that running backs Benny Snell (knee) and Trey Edmunds are banged up.

The Rams are expected to get linebacker Clay Matthews (jaw) back this week, but they’ll be without Brandin Cooks while he visits a specialist for his concussion, so they’ll roll out Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds in 3-WR sets. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Steelers Pass Rush vs. Rams Offensive Line

As I’ve mentioned many times in these previews and on our NFL podcast, the biggest weakness of this Rams team is their offensive line. They had some attrition in the interior during the offseason and the quality of play at both tackle positions has deteriorated.

Per Football Focus, the Rams’ offensive line ranks dead last in pass blocking efficiency, having allowed the second-most pressures and most hurries in the league. Not great.

Jared Goff
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff

It’s one of the primary reasons their offense has taken such a significant step back. And the problem is magnified by the fact that Jared Goff is not a mobile quarterback and struggles immensely under pressure as he needs time to set his feet and a clean pocket to complete his mechanical throwing motion.

This could become a problem an issue once again in a hostile environment on Sunday against a dominant defensive front that ranks second in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, trailing only the undefeated 49ers.

Pittsburgh’s defensive front obviously helps out the secondary as the two are inter-connected, but the secondary has also played much better since the arrival of Minkah Fitzpatrick, who shored up the safety spot and can do so many different things on defense. It also won’t hurt that the Rams will likely be without Cooks on the outside. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Rams -3.5
  • Projected Total: 44

There may have been some value on the total when it opened at 45, but it’s been bet down to my projection.

This game is a pass for me. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Under 44

Let’s keep this simple: I think the Steelers’ defensive front can get enough pressure on a consistent basis to stymie this Rams offense. And remember it’s a different caliber of defense on the back end since Fitzpatrick arrived in the Steel City.

Plus, the Rams most likely won’t have the services of Cooks, which really limits the explosiveness of their offense.

Speaking of limited explosiveness, that’s exactly how I’d describe the Pitt offense with Mason Rudolph at the helm. It’s a lot of running and plenty of short, easy passes that keep the clock bleeding.

I’m splitting the game under 44 (like it down to 43) and the first-half under 21.5 (like it down to 21). [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

How would you rate this article?