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NFL Week 12 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 12 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

Thanksgiving Week has arrived in the NFL. There are three games on Thursday and a full 12-game slate on Sunday.

Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 12 of Action Network’s NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Nov. 27, 10 a.m. ET.


1. History on South Beach

Only once in the past 30 years have the Dolphins closed as high as a 13.5-point favorite. This week, against the 1-8-1 Texans, Miami is close to making history.

Dolphins Biggest Favorite Last 30 Years

  • -14 == 2022 vs. Texans
  • -13.5 == 2003 vs. Texans (L, 21-20)
  • -12.5 == 1996 vs. Jets (W, 36-27)

2. Here’s Comes The Wind!

Entering Week 12, we’ve seen 51 games this season with 10+ MPH winds. In those 51 games, the under is 33-18 (64.7%).

Week 12 matches: GB/PHI, TB/CLE, CHI/NYJ, ATL/WAS

3. Streaking in Nashville

The Tennessee Titans have covered the spread in eight consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. The Titans haven’t covered eight straight games as a franchise since at least 1980 (including Oilers).

Teams to cover eight straight over the past decade: ’22 TEN, ’21 GB, ’20 BUF, ’18 NO, ’17 PHI, ’16 DAL, ’15 MIN.

4. Rodgers Is Fading …

Aaron Rodgers is 2-9 against the second-half spread this season, the least profitable quarterback against the second-half spread in the NFL. He’s 3-13 2H ATS in his past 16 games.


Every NFL Game For Week 12 

Click on one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific game.


Click on a topic to skip ahead
Market Movers
Biggest Week 12 Line Moves
Sharp Report
How the Pros Are Betting Week 12
The Big Picture
Win Total Tracker, NFC East & Home Cooking
Action Audio
Best NFL Podcasts for Week 12
What’s Next?
Early Week 13 Betting Trends

Game-By-Game Breakdown

Bills at Lions 
Channel: CBS | 12:30 p.m. ET (THU)
Line: BUF (-9.5) | O/U: 54.5
Josh Allen, BUF
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-5-1 ATS
7-3 SU
41-30-5 ATS
49-27 SU
20-14-2 ATS
20-16 SU
Jared Goff, DET
2022 Career Home (Career)
6-4 ATS
4-6 SU
51-45-2 ATS
51-46-1 SU
23-22-2 ATS
25-22 SU


+ The over/under for Bills-Lions is north of 50. Totals of at least 50 played on Thursday are 24-14-1 to the under over the past 20 years.

+ Bills road unders are 5-0 this season, going under by 10.8 PPG.

+ The Bills have played twice on Thanksgiving since 2019 with Josh Allen. They are 2-0 SU/ATS, covering by 17.8 PPG.

+ Allen is only 6-6-1 ATS on short rest in his career. He’s 32-23-4 ATS on seven days of rest or more.

  • After an eight-point win over the Browns, Buffalo is 0-3-1 ATS in its past four games. Allen has never failed to cover five straight starts.
  • Favorites of a touchdown or more are 12-23-1 ATS this season.

+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo might just be the Bills’ second half. Under Allen, they are 46-26-3 (64%) against the second-half spread. Scared to ride Buffalo after it leads at the half? Don’t be. The Bills are 29-14-1 (67%) against the second-half spread when leading at the half.



Detroit Struggles on Thanksgiving …

+ Home underdogs are 2-26 SU on Thanksgiving since 2000 and 1-21 SU since ’05.

+ Lions are 3-18 SU, 7-14 ATS as a dog on Thanksgiving in Wild Card era (since 1990).

+ Lions have lost 15 consecutive games SU as an underdog on Thanksgiving.

+ Road favorites vs the Lions on Thanksgiving since 2005: 13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS covering by nine PPG.

+ Lions last entered Thanksgiving on a three-game win streak in 2017 (only other time since 2000).

Best of the Rest …

+ Lions have won three straight games SU for the first time since 2017. They haven’t won four straight SU since ’16.

+ Jared Goff is 2-0 ATS on short rest with the Lions. He’s started one game on Thanksgiving, a 16-14 loss, but covered (+2.5) vs. the Bears last year.

+ Home underdogs of a touchdown or more are 6-0 ATS this season.

+ Goff is 2-8 ATS in his past 10 starts coming off a double-digit win.

+ The over is 7-3 in the past 10 Lions games on Thanksgiving.

+ Since 2005, teams to win by double-digits the week before Thanksgiving are 18-9 ATS (7-1 ATS since ’16).


Giants at Cowboys 
Channel: FOX | 4:30 p.m. ET (THU)
Line: DAL (-10) | O/U: 45.5
Daniel Jones, NYG
2022 Career Road (Career)
7-3 ATS
7-3 SU
26-21 ATS
19-28 SU
14-7 ATS
7-14 SU
Dak Prescott, DAL
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-2 ATS
3-2 SU
51-41-2 ATS
57-37 SU
25-23-1 ATS
32-17 SU


+ Giants and Cowboys are both 7-3 SU/ATS this season. This is the first matchup of teams with a 70%+ SU/ATS win percentage in November or later since Panthers/Packers back in 2015, and the only other time since ’12.

+ Giants are touchdown underdogs this week. In November or later, 70%+ win pct SU & ATS teams who are touchdown dogs are 10-7 ATS and 3-0 ATS over the past five years.

+ Giants have played twice on Thanksgiving in the past 20 years: 0-2 SU/ATS

+ Saquon Barkley is second in the NFL in rushing yards. He was 25-1 to lead the category before the season started.

+ Giants are 5-1 SU and ATS as underdogs this season, with their only loss in their last game as a dog in Seattle.

+ Daniel Jones is 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS on short rest. Since 2020, he’s 7-0 ATS on short rest, the most profitable quarterback in the NFL.

+ The under is 31-11-1 (74%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.

+ Giants can go over their preseason win total with a win.

The Giants have been under their win total in five straight years and in eight of the past nine, including 9-1-1 to the under since 2011. The streak of five to the under is the longest active streak for any over or under win total.



It’s Not Just A Lions Issue …

+ Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 Thanksgiving games.

+ Favorites on Thanksgiving Since 2005:

  • Cowboys: 5-8 ATS
  • All other teams: 28-8 ATS

+ Cowboys have lost five straight 1H ATS on Thanksgiving and are 1-11 1H ATS on Thanksgiving since 2010.

+ Dak Prescott is just 4-8 ATS on short rest in his career, including 1-4 ATS on Thanksgiving.

Best of the Rest …

+ Over is 8-4 in past 12 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving since 2010.

+ Cowboys as TD or higher favorites on Thanksgiving: 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS.

+ Cowboys are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games vs. Giants.

+ Unders are 33-19 in NFL divisional games this season. The best start for division unders in the past 20 years.


» Return to the table of contents «


Patriots at Vikings 
Channel: NBC | 8:20 p.m. ET (THU)
Line: MIN (-3) | O/U: 41.5
Mac Jones, NE
2022 Career Road (Career)
3-3-1 ATS
4-3 SU
13-11-1 ATS
14-11 SU
6-5-1 ATS
8-4 SU
Kirk Cousins, MIN
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-5-1 ATS
8-2 SU
66-65-2 ATS
68-63-2 SU
30-34-1 ATS
39-26 SU


+ This is the fifth time Bill Belichick has coached on Thanksgiving: 3-1 SU/ATS (3-0 SU/ATS since 2002).

Only been dog on Thanksgiving once: 2000, +6.5 at Lions, lost 34-9

+ Since 2003, Belichick is 29-15-1 ATS on short rest, including 5-4 ATS without Tom Brady.

+ Belichick has faced seven teams with a 75%+ win pct on short rest over the last decade: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS

+ Belichick ATS past 20 years by over/under:

  • Under 40: 35-12-1 ATS (74.5%)
  • Under 42: 53-24-2 ATS (68.8%)
  • Under 45: 93-54-5 ATS (63.3%)
  • 45+: 110-87-5 ATS (55.8%)

+ The Patriots defense has been stout, allowing three points in back-to-back weeks. In the past 20 years, New England is 27-10 ATS the week after allowing fewer than seven points, including 8-3 ATS since 2018.

+ Patriots unders are 36-21 (63%) on the road dating back to 2016.

+ The Patriots have struggled in the first quarter. They have an NFL-low 15 points in the 1Q all season and the only team with no touchdowns.



+ Vikings are 3-1 SU/ATS on Thanksgiving over the past 25 years.

Kirk Cousins is 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on Thanksgiving in two starts.

  • The first team to have a negative point differential with two or fewer losses at least 10 games into the season? The Vikings.

+ The Vikings are 8-2 SU, but have a negative point differential. In the past 15 years, Belichick has faced 11 teams in November or later that are above .500 SU, but have a negative point differential. Those teams are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS against the Patriots.

+ Vikings lost 40-3 in Week 11 against the Cowboys. In the past 20 years, teams to lose by 35 points or more are 72-42-5 ATS (63%) the next week. These teams are 48-24-4 ATS (67%) in November or later.

+ Vikings are 8-2 SU entering this game against the Patriots. Teams with a 75%+ win pct are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005.

+ Since 2015, Kirk Cousins is 33-17 ATS off a SU loss, the most profitable quarterback in the NFL in that spot.

+ Kirk Cousins at night: 10-18 SU, 11-17 ATS

  • Third-least profitable on moneyline at night over the past 20 years (Stafford/Dalton)
  • Ranked 187th of 193 QBs at night ATS

Thursday Night Football Unders:

  • 23-16 since 2020 (6-5 this season).
  • The under is 17-8 in the past 25 games on Thursday Night Football.
  • Thanksgiving night unders are 11-4 (73%), with seven unders cashing in a row.

+ On the other hand, the over has hit on TNF in four of the past five weeks.


Ravens at Jaguars 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: BAL (-3.5) | O/U: 43.5
Lamar Jackson, BAL
2022 Career Road (Career)
5-5 ATS
7-3 SU
33-30 ATS
45-18 SU
20-11 ATS
22-9 SU
Trevor Lawrence, JAC
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-7 ATS
3-7 SU
8-19 ATS
6-21 SU
4-9 ATS
4-9 SU


+ Lamar Jackson is 11-5 ATS vs. teams on extended rest.

+ Lamar: 13-19 ATS at home | 20-11 ATS on road

+ In their three losses, the Ravens (3-3 SU) have only trailed for 120 total seconds.

+ Lamar 1H on road: 21-9-1 ATS — most profitable QB 1H ATS on road since 2005

+ Road favorites of a TD or less facing an opponent coming out of a bye week are 44-29-1 ATS, covering 60% of the time.



+ Trevor Lawrence has played one game on 13+ days rest, a 31-7 loss to Seahawks last season.

This will be Lawrence’s third career start on extended rest: 0-2 SU/ATS, failing to cover by 17 PPG.

+ Since 2014, Jaguars are 3-13 SU on extended rest.

+ Since beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Doug Pederson has lost three straight games SU/ATS off 13+ days rest.

+ Jaguars are 2-21 SU when allowing 14 pts or more under Trevor Lawrence.

+ The Jaguars are 4-14 ATS in their past 18 games.

+ Trevor Lawrence is 6-21 SU, 8-19 ATS in his career. In the past decade, he’s 149th of 154 total QBs ATS in profitability.

+ Doug Pederson is just 1-4 ATS after the bye. John Harbaugh is 10-4-2 ATS (71%) facing opponents with that extra week of prep.


» Return to the table of contents «


Broncos at Panthers 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: DEN (-1.5) | O/U: 36
Russell Wilson, DEN
2022 Career Road (Career)
3-6 ATS
3-6 SU
93-83-7 ATS
116-66-1 SU
45-42-4 ATS
49-41-1 SU
Sam Darnold, CAR
2022 Career Home (Career)
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
18-30-1 ATS
17-32 SU
11-12-1 ATS
10-14 SU


The Broncos-Panthers over/under is teetering on history this week.

+ Lowest Totals Last Decade

35 — PIT/BAL (2019), 28-10 BAL

36 — WAS/JAX (2018), 16-13 WAS

36 — DEN/CAR (2022)

+ Broncos played at home vs. Raiders in Week 11. Last decade, MST/PST teams coming off a home game to playing on road in EST are 80-58-3 ATS (58%).

+ PST and MST teams on the road in EST are 58-32-2 ATS (64.4%) since 2019, including 6-2-1 ATS this season.

+ Russell Wilson is 23-13-2 ATS in his career in EST, covering the spread by 4.1 PPG.

+ Broncos have had leads of 10-0 three different times this season. They’re 0-3 in those games.

+ Six straight Broncos games have gone under the total. Nine of Denver’s past 10 games have gone under the total this season, the most profitable team to the under this season.

Dating back to the start of last season, the under is 21-6 (78%) in Broncos games, the best % in the NFL.

+ Broncos can go under their preseason win total (10) with a loss this week.

+ Broncos have scored 13 total TDs this season, the fewest in the NFL.



+ Since Sam Darnold’s first start in 2018, he’s ranked 106th out of 109 QBs against the spread: 18-30-1 ATS.

Darnold is 1-7 ATS in his past eight starts.

+ Panthers bye next week. Teams before the bye week this season: 16-6 SU, 17-5 ATS

+ Vikings, Panthers and Jets all scored just three points last week. Teams to score six points or less are 6-1 1H ATS this season and 65-46-4 1H ATS (59%) since 2014.

+ Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 108-75-4 ATS (59%) since 2018.

+ When a road team is favored this season, the under is 45-21 (68.2%). When the road team is favored by less than a FG, the under is 19-5 (79%)


Falcons at Commanders 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: WAS (-3.5) | O/U: 40.5
Marcus Mariota, ATL
2022 Career Road (Career)
7-4 ATS
5-6 SU
33-39-2 ATS
35-39 SU
16-22 ATS
15-23 SU
Taylor Heinicke, WAS
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-0-1 ATS
4-1 SU
12-9-1 ATS
11-11 SU
5-5-1 ATS
4-7 SU


+ Marcus Mariota is 25-34-2 ATS playing outdoors in his career. Over the past 20 years, he’s ranked 253rd of 258 QBs.

+ After starting 6-0 ATS, Falcons are just 1-4 ATS.

+ 6-0 ATS teams past decade after a hot start …

2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 1-4 ATS

2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS

2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS



+ Taylor Heinicke is rolling lately:

  • 10-2-1 ATS past 13 starts
  • 6-0-1 ATS past seven starts

+ Washington’s past 12 games with backup QB since 2020: 9-3 SU, 9-1-2 ATS

+ Since Week 3, Commanders games are 7-1 to the under, with their only game going over eclipsing the total by just 2.5 points.

+ Commanders are 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games.

+ No letdown in Ron Rivera — 51-42-2 ATS after SU win and 11-6-1 ATS with Washington.

In November or later after SU win, he’s 35-25-2 ATS (58%)

+ Most Profitable Commanders QBs ATS Past 20 Years

Alex Smith: 11-4 ATS (+674)

Rex Grossman: 10-6 ATS (+356)

Taylor Heinicke: 12-8-1 ATS (+301)


» Return to the table of contents «


Buccaneers at Browns 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: TB (-3.5) | O/U: 42.5
Tom Brady, TB
2022 Career Road (Career)
3-6-1 ATS
5-5 SU
212-150-11 ATS
277-90 SU
95-75-3 ATS
116-55 SU
Jacoby Brissett, CLE
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-5-1 ATS
3-7 SU
23-21-3 ATS
17-30 SU
14-11 ATS
13-12 SU


+ Tom Brady on at least 13 days rest career: 33-9 SU, 23-17-2 ATS

In the regular season, he’s 15-5 SU, 11-8-1 ATS off a bye week

Over the past 20 years, Brady is 35-19-4 ATS on extended rest in the regular season

Brady on extended rest (8+ days) with Bucs: 10-2 SU, 8-3-1 ATS

+ Brady’s second game vs. Brissett: Beat MIA last year 45-17, TB -11.

+ Bucs are 0-3 SU/ATS vs. AFC this season.

+ Bucs road unders are 4-0 this season, going under the total by 16.1 PPG.

+ Brady is 8-3 ATS (73%) on the road after a bye week and 7-2-1 ATS (78%) out of the bye as a TD favorite or less over the past 20 years.

+ Fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year? Bucs with just 707 yards.

+ Bucs team total overs are 1-9 this season.

+ Brady has only gone over 1.5 pass TD twice in past 10 starts.

+ In his career, Tom Brady-led teams are 16-3-2 to the over on their preseason win total (14-3-2 NE, 2-0 TB). The Bucs are one loss away from pushing the under on their win total (11) this season.



+ Browns are fourth in offensive DVOA this season, according to Football Outsiders. They are 31st in defensive DVOA.

+ Kevin Stefanski with Browns

  • Favorite: 17-8 SU, 8-17 ATS
  • Dog: 5-14 SU, 10-8-1 ATS

+ Jacoby Brissett career as an underdog: 6-23 SU (13-13-3 ATS)

Brissett as home dog past three years: 2-1 SU/ATS (loss by two pts)

+ Browns are 7-3 to the over this season, T-best in the NFL. 


Bengals at Titans 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: CIN (-1.5) | O/U: 42.5
Joe Burrow, CIN
2022 Career Road (Career)
7-3 ATS
6-4 SU
26-14 ATS
21-18-1 SU
14-7 ATS
10-10-1 SU
Ryan Tannehill, TENN
2022 Career Home (Career)
6-2 ATS
6-2 SU
72-69-3 ATS
80-64 SU
33-37 ATS
34-36 SU


+ Joe Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 17 times in his career, he is 15-2 ATS, covering by 8.4 PPG.

Burrow has faced a team on at least a two-game ATS win streak 10 times. He is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS.

+ Burrow career: 21-18-1 SU, 26-14 ATS (+$978). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.

+ Burrow is 14-3 ATS in his past 16 starts.

+ Burrow is 15-7 ATS away from home, most profitable QB ATS since 2020.

+ Bengals are 15-3 ATS in their past 18 games. They are the second-most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the past two seasons.

+ When a road team is favored this season, the under is 45-21 (68.2%). When the road team is favored by less than a FG, the under is 19-5 (79%)



+ Titans eight-game ATS W streak, longest in NFL. Titans haven’t covered eight straight games as a franchise since at least 1980 (including Oilers).

Teams to cover eight straight past decade: ’22 TEN, ’21 GB, ’20 BUF, ’18 NO, ’17 PHI, ’16 DAL, ’15 MIN

Titans are the first team to win eight straight games ATS and average below 20 PPG for the season in the past 20 years.

In the past 20 years, only one other team has covered eight (or more) straight games and played on extended rest: 2003 Eagles won as dogs in Miami.

+ Vrabel is 9-0 SU/ATS on at least 10 days rest with Titans in the regular season.

+ Titans are 24-14 ATS as an underdog under Mike Vrabel.

Vrabel as dog on ML: 22-16 SU. $100 bettor up $2,715 (71.4% ROI). Titans are 4-0 SU/ATS as home dogs since start of last season.

+ Titans are coming off a win in Green Bay last week. Teams off a road game at Lambeau Field are 91-65-3 ATS (58.3%) in their next game, covering six of their past seven games in the spot.

+ Ryan Tannehill has played well off Titans wins this season, going 4-0 SU/ATS.

+ Vrabel is off a win as an underdog last week against the Packers. The public would assume there is a step back the following week, but Vrabel is 14-7 ATS in this spot, covering by 7.2 PPG.

Since the beginning of last season, Titans are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after a SU win as an underdog.


» Return to the table of contents «


Texans at Dolphins 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: MIA (-14) | O/U: 47
Kyle Allen, HOU
2022 Career Road (Career)
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
9-7-1 ATS
7-10 SU
5-3 ATS
3-5 SU
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
2022 Career Home (Career)
5-3 ATS
7-1 SU
17-11-1 ATS
20-9 SU
11-4 ATS
12-3 SU


+ Davis Mills is 12-9 against the first-half spread in his career.

+ Texans are 9-33-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.

+ Week 12 is Davis Mills’ 22nd career start, all 22 as an underdog (10-11 ATS). Overall, Mills is 3-17-1 SU career.

+ The Texans have lost five straight games SU. Each of those five losses have been by seven points or more.

+ 7-3 Dolphins face off against the 1-8-1 Texans. Beware of the record advantages.

Teams with 65%+ win pct vs. teams with 25% win pct or less since 2016: 70-100-3 ATS. Since 2020 those teams are 29-53-2 ATS (35%).



+ On 10 days rest or more, Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS).

+ Tua vs. teams below .500 SU: 8-8 ATS (6-2-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU)

+ Dolphins home-field advantage: 34-19 SU, 32-18-3 ATS since 2016 .. second best ATS in NFL behind Patriots. Biggest impact? Later in the season, in Nov. or later since 2016, MIA is 22-7 SU, 21-6-2 ATS at home.

+ Dolphins are 15-4 SU in past 19 games.

+ Tua Tagovailoa at home: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS. Two of the four games he lost ATS, he won the home game SU.

+ In the past 20 years, Dolphins are 6-14-1 ATS as a favorite of a TD or more (Tua is 2-2 ATS).

+ Tyreek Hill is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at +225 right now. He opened at 50-1.


Bears at Jets 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: NYJ (-7) | O/U: 38.5
TBD, CHI
2022 Career Road (Career)
XX ATS
XX SU
XX ATS
XX SU
XX ATS
XX SU
Mike White, NYJ
2022 Career Home (Career)
1-2 ATS
1-2 SU
1-2 ATS
1-2 SU
1-1 ATS
1-1 SU


+ Bears are 2-9 against the first-half spread this season (T-worst in the NFL).

+ Justin Fields is 7-14 ATS as a starting QB, including 6-12 ATS as an underdog.

+ Justin Fields’ fourth career game as a favorite: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS

+ Fields vs. above .500 SU teams: 1-9 SU, 4-6 ATS

+ Five straight Bears games have gone over the total, including six of their past seven.

Bears are 7-2 to the over in past nine road games.

+ Bears have lost four consecutive games SU, their past three losses have been by an average of just 2.3 points. Bears are just second team since 2018 to lose three straight with an average margin of a FG or less: Ravens last year. They lost to Bengals in their next game.

+ Fields has been sacked a league-high 40 times this season.

+ Over the past two seasons, the Bears are 4-18 SU as underdogs, least profitable team on ML as dogs in the NFL (-$800).

+ Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 108-75-4 ATS (59%) since 2018.



+ Mike White gets his 4th career start this week for the Jets. New York has averaged 27 PPG in White’s three starts.

+ Jets are the most profitable team SU in the NFL this season. 6-4 SU, a $100 bettor up $890.

+ Advantage Jets in 1H? New York is 8-2 1H ATS (T-best in NFL), while Bears are 2-9 1H ATS (T-worst in NFL).

+ 11: Years since the Jets have made the playoffs, longest drought in the NFL. They were +650 to make the playoffs entering the season, +125 now.

+ Five straight Jets games have gone under the total.

+ Jets are 0-5 SU/ATS vs. Bears over the past 20 years.

+ Vikings, Panthers and Jets all scored just 3 pts last week. Teams to score 6 pts or less are 6-1 1H ATS this season and 65-46-4 1H ATS (59%) since 2014.


» Return to the table of contents «


Raiders at Seahawks 
Channel: CBS | 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: SEA (-4) | O/U: 47.5
Derek Carr, LV
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-6 ATS
3-7 SU
65-71-2 ATS
60-78 SU
34-35-1 ATS
27-43 SU
Geno Smith, SEA
2022 Career Home (Career)
6-4 ATS
6-4 SU
25-17-2 ATS
19-25 SU
14-8 ATS
12-10 SU


+ Raiders beat the Broncos on the road last week. They are now 1-5 SU on the road this year and 1-6 SU in their past seven road games.

+ Derek Carr is 18-28-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the second-least profitable road QB ATS in that span (112 of 113 QBs).

In his career, Carr is actually 4-2 ATS on the road after a win on the road in his previous game.

+ Carr is 24-33 ATS after a SU win in his career. Since being drafted in 2014, he’s the 4th-least profitable QB off a SU win in the NFL.



+ Geno Smith has played 8 career games on extended rest, he is 2-6 SU, 5-3 ATS, lost 6 in a row SU. With the Seahawks, he’s 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS on extended rest. On 10+ days rest, Geno is 1-4 SU career.

+ Geno is 11-4 ATS in his last 15 starts dating back to 2016.

+ Since 2011, Seahawks are 24-9-2 ATS at home after a SU loss.

+ On extended rest, Pete Carroll is 0-5 SU since the start of the 2021 season (lost 3 straight ATS).

+ Kenneth Walker is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at -135, he opened the year at 25-1 odds.


Chargers at Cardinals 
Channel: CBS | 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: LAC (-3) | O/U: 48.5
Justin Herbert, LAC
2022 Career Road (Career)
7-3 ATS
5-5 SU
23-19 ATS
20-22 SU
13-7 ATS
9-11 SU
Kyler Murray, ARI
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-5 ATS
3-6 SU
28-26-2 ATS
25-30-1 SU
11-17 ATS
10-17-1 SU


+ Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is.

  • Under 50: 10-4 to over
  • 50 or more: 8-5 to under

+ Herbert by time zone

  • EST/CST: 11-4 ATS
  • MST/PST: 12-15 ATS

+ Herbert 2H in 2022: 2-8 ATS

Herbert 2H ATS career: 11-29-2 – Least profitable QB in spot since drafted.



+ 49ers and Cardinals played in Mexico City. 5th teams to do so in the NFL.

3 of the previous 4 didn’t have a bye after Mexico City.

Of the 6 teams to play without a bye after Mexico City, those teams were outscored 81-44 in the second half, including 63-24 in the 4th quarter of their next game.

+ Cardinals bye next week. Teams before the bye week this season: 16-6 SU, 17-5 ATS

+ Cardinals are 2-9 against the 1st-half spread this season (T-worst in the NFL).

+ Vikings and Cardinals lost by 20+ points back in Week 11. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ pts are 70-49-1 ATS in their next game, including 54-30-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.

+ Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury

Overall: 28-32-1 SU, 31-28-2 ATS

  • Weeks 1-7: 18-9-1 SU, 20-8 ATS
  • Week 8+: 10-23 SU, 11-20-2 ATS

Kingsbury at Texas Tech

  • Games 1-4: 18-6 SU, 17-6-1 ATS
  • Games 5+: 17-34 SU, 23-28 ATS

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Rams at Chiefs 
Channel: FOX | 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: KC (-15.5) | O/U: 42
Bryce Perkins, LAR
2022 Career Road (Career)
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
Patrick Mahomes, KC
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-6 ATS
8-2 SU
45-37-2 ATS
66-18 SU
21-22-1 ATS
35-9 SU


+ Rams are 2-7-1 ATS to open the season, worst ATS start for SB Champ since Green Bay Packers started 1-7-2 ATS back in 1997.

Rams are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games dating back to last season.

+ Rams are failing to cover the spread by 8.3 PPG this season, worst ATS margin in the NFL.

+ Just two NFL teams have an under .500 record on 6-point teasers this season: Packers and Rams

+ The Rams have lost 4 consecutive games SU, the longest losing streak under Sean McVay.

+ Rams Super Bowl odds since Week 7: 20-1, 25-1, 40-1, 50-1, 80-1 now

+ McVay Biggest Underdog

  • +14.5 == at Chiefs (2022)
  • +7 == at Packers (2019), L 32-18
  • +7 == at 49ers (2017), L 34-31


+ The Chiefs have now won their past six games in which they trailed at halftime. That’s the longest streak by any NFL team (reg & post) since the 49ers won seven straight from 1989-90.

+ Patrick Mahomes (-160) is now the favorite to win MVP ahead of Jalen Hurts (+550).

Mahomes MVP odds: opened 8-1, 5-1 Week 4, 4-1 Week 8, 2-1 Week 10, -160 now

+ Under is now 52-37-1 (58.4%) at Arrowhead with Andy Reid in KC.

When the Chiefs are 7-pt favorites or higher, under is 29-13-1 (69%).

+ Mahomes performs better ATS away from home

  • Home: 21-22-1 ATS
  • Road/Neutral: 24-15-1 ATS

+ Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their past six home games, with their only cover coming by a half point.

KC 11-16 ATS at home since 2020 (ranked 27th in NFL in that span).

+ Patrick Mahomes career against the spread:

  • As favorite of 3.5 or more: 28-32-1 ATS
  • As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-5-1 ATS

+ Mahomes is just 1-6 ATS this season after a SU win and 15-21 ATS after a win since 2020.

+ Mahomes at home as TD or higher favorite: 24-3 SU, 13-13-1 ATS

+ Mahomes Biggest Favorite

  • -20 == vs. Jets (2020), W, 35-9
  • -16.5 == vs. Cardinals (2018), W, 26-14
  • -15.5 == vs. Rams (2022)
  • -14.5 == vs. Raiders (2018), W, 35-3
  • -14 == vs. Titans (2022), W, 20-17
  • -14 == vs. Raiders (2018), L, 40-33

Saints at 49ers 
Channel: FOX | 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: SF (-9) | O/U: 43
Andy Dalton, NO
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-4 ATS
3-5 SU
80-73-6 ATS
79-78-2 SU
38-36-3 ATS
33-44 SU
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-4 ATS
5-3 SU
35-25-1 ATS
42-19 SU
12-14-1 ATS
18-9 SU


+ Saints have failed to cover the spread in 4 straight road games – first time they’ve done that as a franchise since failing to cover 6 in a row on the road back in 2013.

+ Andy Dalton has lost his past 9 starts SU vs. teams allowing fewer than 20 PPG (3-6 ATS). Since 2016, Dalton is 5-18 SU vs. teams allowing fewer than 20 PPG.

+ The Saints are one loss away from pushing the under on their win total (9) this season.



+ 49ers and Cardinals played in Mexico City. 5th teams to do so in the NFL.

3 of the previous 4 didn’t have a bye after Mexico City.

Of the 6 teams to play without a bye after Mexico City, those teams were outscored 81-44 in the second half, including 63-24 in the 4th quarter of their next game.

+ The 49ers are 40-19 straight up and 33-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.

+ 49ers are now 2-30 SU when trailing by 3+ pts entering 4th quarter under Kyle Shanahan.

+ Jimmy G is 9-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, but he’s won four straight starts in that spot.

Garoppolo is 3-6-1 ATS as above a touchdown favorite

+ Garoppolo is 8-14-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 25-8 ATS vs. teams who allow under 24 PPG for the season.

+ Kyle Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):

  • Favorite: 20-28-1 ATS (3rd-worst)
  • Underdog: 29-19 ATS (5th-best)
Packers at Eagles 
Channel: NBC | 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: PHI (-6.5) | O/U: 46.5
Aaron Rodgers, GB
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-7 ATS
4-7 SU
135-98-5 ATS
154-83-1 SU
63-55-1 ATS
62-57 SU
Jalen Hurts, PHI
2022 Career Home (Career)
5-5 ATS
9-1 SU
14-15-1 ATS
18-12 SU
9-4-1 ATS
8-6 SU


+ Aaron Rodgers at night: 44-27 SU, 41-28-2 ATS

+ Rodgers is 12-3 SU/ATS at night since 2020.

+ Rodgers vs. Eagles: 5-1 SU/ATS (3-0 SU/ATS in Philly)

+ Rodgers on 10+ days rest: 19-11-2 ATS

+ Rodgers is 8-2 ATS as a dog since 2020 (Packers are 9-2 ATS in that span, 2nd-best in NFL behind Bengals).

+ In Rodgers’ career, he has closed above a 6-point underdog eight times, Packers are 6-2 ATS in those games.

+ Just two NFL teams have an under .500 record on 6pt teasers this season: Packers and Rams

+ Rodgers is 2-9 against the second-half spread this season, the least profitable QB against the second-half spread in the NFL. He’s 3-13 2H ATS in his past 16 games overall.

+ Packers went under their win total last week. In Rodgers’ 15 seasons, the Packers are just 7-8 to the over on their win total.

+ Packers are 4-7 ATS this season through 11 games, their worst ATS start to the season since 2000 (also 4-7 ATS start).

+ Packers opened season -450 to make playoffs, they are +550 now.

+ Since 2017, Rodgers is 7-11 SU, 5-13 ATS in EST (103rd of 107 QBs).

+ Rodgers off a loss: 44-25-1 ATS

  • Off a loss as an underdog: 10-4 ATS (covered 4 straight)
  • Off a loss on extended rest: 7-3-1 ATS


+ Eagles can push the over on their preseason win total (10) with a win this week.

+ In the Eagles past 10 home games, the over is 9-1, going over the total by 7 PPG (over in 4 straight games).

+ Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. They are only the 4th team since 2010 to have a 90%+ win pct and lose 3 straight ATS: ’22 PHI, ’20 KC, ’20 TENN, ’18 LAR

+ Good teams on ATS losing streaks don’t tend to perform well. Teams with an 80%+ win pct are 16-24-1 ATS on a 3+ game ATS losing streak and 44-66-5 ATS on a 2+ game ATS losing streak.

Hurts has never lost 4 straight games ATS

+ In November or later over the past 20 years, teams with a 90%+ win pct are 69-97-6 ATS (41.6%).

In the past 20 years, 172 teams have played a game with a 90%+ win pct in November or later – only 8 have played that game with a 50% ATS win pct or less, they are 2-5-1 ATS (Eagles are 5-5 ATS this season).

+ Jalen Hurts has performed much better at home vs. road ATS in his career.

  • Home: 9-4-1 ATS
  • Road: 5-11 ATS – He’s been under .500 ATS on the road each of his 3 seasons in the NFL.

+ If Eagles don’t cover… Least Profitable Eagles QB ATS Last 20 Years

  1. Vick: 16-25 ATS
  2. Wentz: 32-37 ATS
  3. Hurts: 14-16-1 ATS

Steelers at Colts 
Channel: ESPN | 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: IND (-2.5) | O/U: 39
Matt Ryan, IND
2022 Career Road (Career)
5-4 ATS
4-4-1 SU
116-121-4 ATS
128-112-1 SU
59-61-2 ATS
59-62-1 SU
Kenny Pickett, PITT
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-3 ATS
2-4 SU
3-3 ATS
2-4 SU
2-1 ATS
2-1 SU


+ Tomlin is 41-20-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward.

+ Tomlin at night: 6-12 ATS since 2019 (2nd-worst for any coach in NFL in that span)

+ Tomlin on MNF: 18-3 SU, 11-10 ATS

Steelers have won 11 of their past 12 games on MNF SU

Under Tomlin, Steelers are 3-2 SU on MNF vs. Bengals and 15-1 SU vs. all other teams.

7th time as dog on MNF: 4-2 SU/ATS (3-0 SU/ATS as dog on MNF last decade)

+ Steelers allowed 37 points in their loss to the Bengals last week. Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 13-3-1 ATS the week after allowing 35 pts or more.

+ Steelers are losing their games by 7.4 PPG this season, the worst margin in the NFL.

+ With T.J. Watt in action, the Steelers are 53-25-2 straight up, without Watt, they’re 1-10 straight up.

+ When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 64-39-1 (62.1%) since 2018.

+ Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 108-75-4 ATS (59%) since 2018.



+ Colts 1H Against the Spread This Season

2-0 with Jeff Saturday

0-9 with Frank Reich

+ Colts are 2-9 against the 1st-half spread this season (T-worst in the NFL).

+ Colts can go under their preseason win total (10) with a loss this week.

+ Colts 9-2 to the under this season – Colts under 14 of past 16 games.

+ Cots have lost 7 consecutive games SU vs. Steelers (2-5 ATS).

+ Colts are last in the NFL in offensive DVOA this season, according to Football Outsiders.

+ Matt Ryan at night in his career: 23-15 ATS (1-0 ATS w/ Colts)

This will be first time Ryan is favorite in primetime since 2018 (7 consecutive starts in PT as dog)



Market Movers 


For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 12 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 12; not including Thanksgiving)

(-4)
73% of bets vs. Raiders
(-14)
72% of bets vs. Texans
(-3)
72% of bets at Cardinals

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 12
(The most popular bet games for Week 12; not including Thanksgiving)

(+3.5)
12,000 betting tickets
(+3.5)
11,000 betting tickets
(+1.5)
11,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 12

Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines; not including Thanksgiving):

(-2.5 to -15.5)
13-pt move vs. Rams
(-7 to -14)
7-pt move vs. Texans
(0 to -6.5)
6.5-pt move vs. Packers

» Return to the table of contents «


The Sharp Report


PRO Report

Sharp bet
Bengals -1.5 | Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Bet %
TEN: 56% of Bets
Handle %
CIN: 67% of Handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.


Our model’s odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.


PRO Systems

Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season: This system looks to take advantage of the perceptions that the team may not be very good based on last season’s results. Small dogs when the total isn’t too high have covered at a very high rate and we removed Thursday Night Football games to avoid short turnarounds.

Week 12 picks -> PRO Access



PRO Props

Top Props for Week 12: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Bet: Under 30.5 rush yards (-110)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.


» Return to the table of contents «


The Big Picture


The Stat Sheet: Every week we will update 1st quarter, 1st half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Super Bowl Movers: Entering Week 12, the Commanders are charging, while the Packers are falling.

SB: 100-1 (was 300-1 entering Week 10)


SB: 150-1 (was 80-1 last week)


Super Bowl Futures: Let’s look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.


2022 Season Betting Update
1.
Follow the Blowouts!
Vikings and Cardinals lost by 20+ points back in Week 11. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ pts are 70-49-1 ATS in their next game, including 54-30-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.
2.
NFC East Power!
Best ATS division in the NFL? NFC East, 25-15-1 ATS this season. The 2nd-best ATS start for NFC East in past 20 years
3.
Future Week Alert!
Home division dogs are 58-40 ATS since 2020 and 13-6 ATS this season
4.
Big Favorites
Favorites of 7 pts or more: 26-10-1 SU, 13-23-1 ATS
+The least profitable start for TD favorites in the past 20 years.
5.
The Public
(Public = 51% of tickets or more)
51%+ – 69-84-4 ATS
60%+ – 30-37-2 ATS
66%+ – 15-22-1 ATS
+ The worst start through 11 games for the public in the past 20 years.

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.


NFL Win Total Tracker

Here are your results through 11 weeks:

  • Over: Jets, Seahawks, Falcons
  • Under: Rams, Packers


Home Cooking!

So far this season, home underdogs have been cashing for bettors.

Home underdogs against the spread this season:

  • All games: 35-27-2 (57%) ATS
  • Dogs of 3 or more pts: 25-13-2 (66%) ATS
  • Dogs of 7 or more pts: 6-0 ATS

Low Means Low!

18 totals have closed below 40 this season. Those games are 11-7 to the under, including 17-10 over the past three seasons.


» Return to the table of contents «




Action Audio 

  • The Favorites Podcast: Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon hunter offer a cornucopia overflowing with NFL picks this week, as they look to condense the show into a single episode this week.

  • Action Network Podcast: Action Network host Brendan Glasheen is joined by NFL betting experts Gilles Gallant, Nick Giffen and Anthony Dabbundo for a special Thanksgiving week episode of NFL Best Bets. Together they lay out three best bets each for this week’s slate. Tune in to hear who the guys are backing and why. We hope you get some great food, great football and maybe even make some money this week!

For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.


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What’s Next?


Week 13 Notes: COMING SOON!


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