The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans square off in a Week 1 AFC showdown today. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bills are 1.5-point favorites over the Texans on the spread (Bills -1.5), with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. Buffalo is a -118 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Houston is +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bills vs Texans predictions for NFL Week 1.
Bills vs Texans Prediction
- Bills vs Texans pick: Texans 1H Moneyline (-104) / Texans +1.5 (-115)
My Bills vs. Texans best bet is split between Houston to cover the first-half spread and the full-game number, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs Texans Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -106 | 44.5 -118o / -104u | -118 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 44.5 -118o / -104u | +100 |
Bills vs Texans NFL Week 1 Preview
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview: Bleak Historical Trends
For whatever reason, Josh Allen has historically struggled when traveling to Houston. He is 1-4 outright in this building, and these matchups usually turn into low-scoring slugfests.
Offensively, the Bills are taking a slight step back in the trenches. They replaced David Edwards with Alec Anderson on the interior, and they lost offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, who successfully engineered their run game.
The Bills are hoping the addition of DJ Moore adds some desperately needed explosiveness to open up the field for Allen, but the offensive line depth is a concern.
The real story for Buffalo is the massive schematic shift on defense. With Sean McDermott out of the picture and Jim Leonhard taking over at head coach, the Bills are going from a bend-don't-break, zone-heavy scheme to an aggressive, single-high defensive philosophy.
The problem?
Buffalo spent years drafting cornerbacks and defensive linemen specifically to fit a zone-heavy system. The personnel simply isn't built to play this style of aggressive defense.
Plus, the Bills' run defense was horrific last year — I'm not convinced it got any better.
Houston Texans Betting Preview: Favorable Matchup for Stroud
When the Bills have the ball, it's good-on-good.
There are no real weaknesses on this Texans defense. They don't even need to do anything gimmicky because they have the ultimate superpower of modern NFL defenses: an elite nickel corner in Jalen Pitre who can stay on the field on every down to defend both the run and the pass.
With elite edge rushers (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter), tremendous corners (Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter), and the addition of Reed Blankenship to shore up their safety positioning, this unit is loaded.
Last year, the Texans played a ton of Cover-1 and spied Josh Allen; the Bills had a measly 5% success rate against those specific looks.
Offensively, it all comes down to the ground game. The Texans desperately need a complementary rushing attack, which is why they brought in David Montgomery.
If they can just run the ball with consistency against this vulnerable Bills defensive front, it is going to make life much easier for the much-maligned C.J. Stroud.
Stroud has shined against single-high defenses in his career — that is when he is at his best. If Leonhard comes out aggressive in his new scheme, Stroud will likely pick them apart.
Bills vs Texans Prediction, Betting Analysis
Stroud is an absolute monster in the first half of games (36-16 ATS first half), largely because this coaching staff scripts brilliantly early but often fails to adjust well in the second half.
Conversely, Buffalo is an incredible second-half team. If the Bills fall behind, it can just unleash Superman Josh Allen to save the day.
Because of those splits, I love the Texans up to -120 on the first half moneyline.
But given Houston's elite defensive matchup against Allen and Stroud's ability to carve up single-high looks, I will gladly take the Texans +1.5 for the full game as well.
Pick: Texans 1H Moneyline (-104) / Texans +1.5 (-115)
