NFL Week 12 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

After overs went 4-0 on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, now it's time to see if the trend will continue into the weekend.

Here is the Betting Trends Primer for the Thanksgiving + Black Friday slate this week.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 12 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Saturday, Nov. 25, 11 p.m. ET.

The Houston Texans (6-4 SU) can go over their preseason win total of 6.5 this week. They would be the first team to go over or under their win total this season.

This would be their first win total over since 2019. A Week 12 settlement on Houston's win total over would be the earliest win total decision for the Texans since 2013 — under 10.5 in Week 9.

The NFL hasn’t made it to Week 12 without at least one settled win total since the 2002 season.

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Jacksonville has covered the spread in nine straight road or neutral games, their longest away from home ATS winning streak in franchise history.

In the last 20 years, the longest road/neutral ATS streak is nine, done by five different teams, most recently the Chiefs in 2016-17.

Jalen Hurts is the new favorite to win MVP. He will be the fifth different QB to be listed as the favorite to win the MVP award already this season after Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

Dennis Allen is 5-13-2 ATS vs. divisional opponents in his career. He is 4-7-1 ATS with the Raiders and 1-6-1 ATS with the Saints.

His 5-13-2 ATS mark is 144th of 145 coaches in profitability over the last 20 years and among 118 coaches to coach 20+ divisional games since 1990, Allen’s 27.8% ATS win percentage is worst of all 118 coaches.

Kansas City has struggled late in games. The Chiefs are 2-8 against the fourth quarter spread this season and 16-34 4Q ATS over the last three seasons. This season, the Chiefs are also 10-0 to 2H under and 10-0 to 4th quarter under.

Jake Browning gets the start for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out for the season. QBs early in their career struggle facing the Steelers.

• QBs making their first career start vs. Steelers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games dating back to 1987.
• QBs in their first 10 career starts are 25-73-1 SU facing the Steelers since 1990.
• QBs making their first career start are 37-66-1 SU in the last decade.

In Week 12, we had all 32 teams playing in action between Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Sunday, Monday etc. The average O/U for all games played is 42.6 as of now — the fifth-lowest single week O/U average when all 32 teams are playing since 2011.

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• Jaguars are 7-3 SU through 10 games this season
  Best Jaguars Starts through 10 games
  9-1, 1999
  8-2, 1998
  7-3, 2023, 2017, 2007, 2005, 1997
• Lawrence is 13-20 SU as an underdog in his career, but 10-8 SU since the start of last season (3-12 SU as a dog in his rookie year).
• Lawrence is just 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS as a favorite in his NFL career. Lawrence is 7-1 SU in his last seven starts as a favorite.
• Jaguars recent road/neutral success.
  Jacksonville has covered the spread in nine straight road or neutral games, their longest away from home ATS winning streak in franchise history.
  In the last 20 years, the longest road/neutral ATS streak is nine, done by five different teams, most recently the Chiefs in 2016-17.
• For the Jaguars under Lawrence, it's been a bit tough after divisional games, going 5-8 ATS in his career.
• When it comes to covering the number, Lawrence likes facing good teams. The Jaguars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams above .500 SU. Over the last two seasons, Lawrence is 9-4 ATS in this spot, the third-best QB in the NFL.
• Jaguars are 9-16 SU, 10-15 ATS off a loss under Lawrence. They are 10-8 SU, 11-7 ATS off of a win.
• Lawrence has been made into a different QB with Doug Pederson
  w/ Pederson: 17-12 SU/ATS
  w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer: 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS
• Lawrence is 22-24 against 1H spread career, but this season has been a turn around for Lawrence. He is 8-2 1H ATS this season, tied for second-best in the NFL.
• Lawrence is 18-10-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – the most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL.
• Lawrence is 27-19 to the under in the last three seasons, the sixth-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 95 QBs).
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog
  Home: 7-7 SU
  Road/Neutral: 6-13 SU (4-1 SU in last 5; incl. 4-13 SU on road)
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 32-24 ATS (7-2 ATS last 9 games)
  Favorite: 28-31 ATS
• Lawrence by opponent in the AFC South. He’s only under .500 SU vs. Texans.
  HOU: 1-4 SU/ATS
  TEN: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
  IND: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS
  Texans are Lawrence’s least profitable opponent ATS in his career
• Bad Trevor Lawrence this season:
  Josh Dobbs & Justin Fields have more pass TD, he has more INT in fewer attempts than Derek Carr, His Y/A is even with Geno Smith and Jimmy G. Only 8 QBs in NFL have taken more sacks than him. Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones have the same average depth per target as Lawrence this season. He has made 56 “off target” throws this year, only five QBs have thrown more and they aren't Carr, Baker, Pickett, Mac and Zach.

• Houston Texans can go over their preseason win total of 6.5 this week. They would be the first team to go over or under their win total this season.
  This would be their first win total over since 2019
  A Week 12 settlement on their best would be earliest decision for HOU since 2013, under 10.5 in Week 9.
  The NFL hasn’t made it to Week 12 without at least one settled win total since 2002.
• Look at Texans schedule. They are in the middle of three straight home games after a win against the Cardinals with the Jaguars and Broncos on deck.
  In the last decade, teams starting a homes tand of 3 games or more are now 96-51 SU on the moneyline after their win vs. ARI.
  In the last decade, teams to win at home, play at home again, with another home game on deck – basically middle of a home stand, after a win – are 58-29 SU, 51-35-1 ATS, with over 49-36-2 in those games.
• Teams to see line move three pts or more away from you — ex. -3 to -6 — are 26-32-2 ATS this season – 65-92-3 ATS since start of last year & 122-156-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 12: NE, BAL, KC, PIT, HOU
• CJ Stroud currently leads the NFL in passing yards per game at 296.2
  Rookies to lead the NFL in passing yards per game in NFL History – minimum 75 pct of team games played – Davey O’Brien – 120.4 in 1939 & Sammy Baugh – 102.5 in 1937
• The only rookie to win NFL MVP was Jim Brown in 1957. Stroud is down to 18-1. He was 200-1 entering Week 9.
• CJ Stroud is 6-4 SU this season, his first year in the league. QBs out of Ohio State are a combined now 49-98 SU in the NFL (10 total QBs). The most wins SU in a single season by any of those QBs is now six, set by Stroud over the five by Kent Graham, done twice.
  Only one other OSU QB is over .500 SU for his NFL career. Craig Krenzel, at 3-2 SU.
• Most pass yards through teams first 10 games, QBs in first season
  2,965 – Andrew Luck, 2012
  2,962 – CJ Stroud, 2023
  2,885 – Cam Newton, 2011
  Of the 26 QBs with 2,000+ pass yds thru 10 games on that list, Stroud has 3rd most pass TD, 4th-highest passer rating and 2nd-highest Y/A
• Texans are up to 6 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
  2023: 6-4 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU
• Texans are the 11th team in the last decade to start 6-4 SU or better after 4 wins or less the previous season. Those teams are 7-3 ATS in their next game.
• Stroud vs. AFC South: 1-1 SU/ATS. Beat Jaguars in Jacksonville as 7.5-pt dogs and lost to the Colts at home as a 1-pt favorite.
• Stroud has made ten starts in his NFL career. He’s 5-1 ATS as an underdog and 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 7-3 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 6-0 ATS as a dog, 1-3 ATS as a favorite
• Stroud in rhythm. Texans don’t play in primetime this season – 16 of 17 games all starting at 1pm EST, including remainder of games prior to Week 18.

• Road trips haven’t boded well for Baker. He’s 4-9 ATS playing on the road after a road game in his previous start. In the last 20 years, he’s second-worst ATS in this spot of 220 QBs, just ahead of Jameis Winston.
• Todd Bowles can’t stop the bleeding. After a loss, he’s 19-33 SU in his next game, ranked 140th of 147 coaches last 20 years. He is 21-29-2 ATS in that spot, including 4-9-1 ATS with the Bucs.
• Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have covered the spread in four straight – that’s Baker’s longest ATS winning streak of his career.
• Baker Mayfield is 23-20 ATS as an underdog and 13-24-1 ATS as a favorite
• Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog.
  14-41 SU, 23-29-3 ATS as an underdog (24-16 SU as a favorite)
• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success, going 107-68-3 1H ATS since 2017.
  Week 12; TB
• Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (six games) and then covered and won on the road in Minnesota in Week 1 and in New Orleans in Week 4, then they covered in Buffalo on TNF, followed by now two road covers in November.
  Bucs are 1 of 2 teams undefeated ATS on the road this season: Jaguars.
  Bucs haven’t started 5-0 ATS on the road since 2012 (TB started 6-0 ATS on road)
• Baker has been an under machine since start of last year, 15-5 in that span, including 12-3 in his last 15 starts.
• Bowles in his career as HC is horrible SU as a dog, 14-41 SU and 12-39 in last 5 seasons.
  2023: 2-5 SU
  2022: 0-4 SU
  2018: 3-10 SU
  2017: 4-11 SU
  2016: 3-9 SU

• Colts are coming off some rest after their game in Germany vs. Colts. Teams listed as the favorite the game after playing a neutral site game are 36-16 SU.
• Minshew has played two career games outside of Week 1s on 10+ days of prep. He is 1-1 SU/ATS, but his teams are averaging 25 PPG.
• Colts are 8-2 to the team total over – 1 of 3 teams with 8+ team total overs this season: IND, CLE, BAL
• Beware of bad teams on winning streaks. Teams who are .500 SU or worse, who are on a win streak of two games or more are 198-225-11 ATS (46.8%) over the last 20 years.
  Week 12: IND, DEN
• Still Minshew time in Indy. Minshew is 5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS in “toss up” games – a spread of four or less
• Tough spot for Colts. Teams who are listed as a favorite after winning just four games or less the season prior are just 211-255-14 ATS last 20 years, including 36-50-2 ATS since 2019.
• Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix a bit.
  Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 23-19-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 6-12 SU
• Minshew has now won consecutive games SU within the same season for the first time since October. 2019. He’s never had a 3-game SU win streak at any point in his career.
• Gardner Minshew is 4-13 SU in his last 17 starts. He’s 5-11 ATS in his last 16 starts.
• Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 7-17 SU (12-12 ATS) since 2017.
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 pts, he is 1-16 SU.
• Minshew is 7-11 SU when he throws 2+ passing TDs in a game in his career.

• Patriots are 2-8 ATS this season, T-worst record in the NFL with the Falcons
  Patriots haven’t started 2-8 ATS since 1981.
  In 1981, NE started 2-9 ATS and ended 3-13 ATS.
• Patriots are coming off some rest after their game in Germany vs. Colts. Teams listed as the favorite the game after playing a neutral site game are 36-16 SU.
• Teams to open as an underdog and close as the favorites have struggled recently. Those such teams are 49-86 ATS since 2019 and 19-39 ATS since the start of last season.
  Week 12: BAL, PIT, NE
• Patriots are 4-13 SU, 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, Patriots are 16-23 SU, 14-23-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, second-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears.
  Since 2019, they are 19-8 SU, 16-11 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-8 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-21-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, third-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 24-21-1 ATS in that span.
• Rest tends to help losing streaks. Teams on extended rest (8 days or more) on a 3-game losing streak or more, are 133-104-4 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 12: ATL, NE, WAS
• Teams to see line move three pts or more away from you — ex. -3 to -6 — are 26-32-2 ATS this season – 65-92-3 ATS since start of last year & 122-156-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 12: NE, BAL, KC, PIT, HOU
• Between 2016-22, Patriots were 32-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, they are 0-3 ATS this season.

Lowest Patriots Totals Last 20 Years
33 – 2003 JAC at NE, 27-13
33.5 – 2003 MIA at NE, 12-0
34 – 2004 MIA at NE, 24-10
34 – 2003 BUF at NE, 31-0

Bill Belichick

• Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 27-34 SU, 26-34-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick without Tom Brady as head coach: 45-53 SU w/ NE, 37-45 SU w/ CLE, for a combined 82-98 SU.
• Change of the times. Patriots are 5-13 SU vs. NFC opponents since 2020, they were 57-16 SU vs. NFC between 2003-2019.
  The 5-13 SU mark is least profitable on ML for any coach since 2020.
  Patriots are 0-4 SU vs. NFC this season. 0-4 SU or worse vs. non-conference teams this year: Belichick, Gannon and Daboll.
• Belichick off a bye in the regular season: 16-6 SU, 12-9-1 ATS
• In the last 20 years, Belichick is 22-13-2 ATS in the regular season on at least 10 days to prepare, 2nd-best of 137 coaches behind just Mike McCarthy.
• Belichick has won 15 straight games SU vs. Jets (14) and Giants (1) and is 19-1 SU in his last 20 years vs. the duo.
  Since the SB loss in 2012, Patriots have faced Giants twice, both NE wins.
• Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
  Under 40: 36-13-1 ATS (73.5%)
  Under 42: 55-30-2 ATS (64.7%)
  Under 45: 96-65-5 ATS (59.6%)
  45+: 110-90-5 ATS (55%)

• According to point differential, Giants are the worst team in the NFL, with a -136 this season and they are last in the NFL in points.
  In 2020 and 2021, they finished 31st in scoring
• The Giants are 8-3 to the under this season – 1 of 7 teams with 8+ unders this year.
  Giants have went over the total in their last two games. They haven’t gone over in three straight since December, 2019.
• Giants are 42-19-2 to the under since 2020 – by far the best mark to the under in the NFL
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
  2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
• Teams who were sacked 7+ times in their previous game are 90-117-5 ATS (43.5%) in their next game over the last 20 years.
  Week 12: NYG, CAR
• A very different year for the Giants under Brian Daboll.
  They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 3-5 ATS
• QB comparison – min. 100 plays as QB for ranks.
  Taylor: 25th EPA/play, comp% 5th, 19th avg depth per target
  Jones: 37th EPA/play, comp% 12th, 34th avg depth per target
  Devito: 39th EPA/play, comp% 34th, 35th avg depth per target
• Under in Giants home games is 22-6-1 since 2020 and 4-0 this season – best in the NFL
  Giants have scored 27 total points in four games at home this year.
• Since 2017, Giants are 8-40 SU in games played after the 1p ET window – least profitable team on the ML in the NFL.
  Giants are 27-35-1 SU playing at 1p ET or earlier in that span

• Panthers are 1 of 2 teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season – with the Cardinals.
• What a first half ATS rollercoaster Frank Reich teams have gone through. Overall, he is 48-38-1 1H ATS career.
  2023 Panthers: 6-4 1H ATS
  2022 Colts: 0-9 1H ATS
  2018-21 Colts: 42-25-1 1H ATS (Reich 2nd-best in NFL)
• Dating back to last season, Frank Reich coached teams are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" = NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 171-115-6 ATS (59.8%) since 2018 & 34-21-2 ATS this season.
  Week 12: CLE, CAR, CIN, NYG, ATL
• Teams who were sacked 7+ times in their previous game are 90-117-5 ATS (43.5%) in their next game over the last 20 years.
  Week 12: NYG, CAR
• Panthers are 8-2 against first quarter spread this season.
  Between 2020-22, Colts were over .500 each year against 1Q spread
• Bryce Young is 1-8 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 63-127-2 SU in their first season.
• Teams to lose by 20+ at home in their previous game and then be listed +3 or higher in their next game are 51-23 ATS since 2017
• Panthers and former Colts coach Frank Reich usually plays to his role
  As favorite: 30-13-1 SU
  As underdog: 12-31 SU
• Reich by days of rest
  Short: 9-2 ATS, 6-5 SU
  Normal: 24-30-1 ATS, 28-27 SU
  Extended: 7-6-2 ATS, 8-7 SU
• When Reich plays a team below .500 SU, he’s 18-8 SU as a favorite and 2-7 SU as an underdog
• Panthers have really struggled on the road recently.
  Panthers are 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS on the road this season, failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG and losing by 13.2 PPG.
  Worst SU this season: TEN, ARI 0-6 ATS | CAR 0-5 ATS
  Worst ATS this season: TEN 1-5 ATS, NYG 2-5 ATS, CAR 1-4 ATS
  Panthers are 8-14 ATS last 3 seasons, 2nd-worst in NFL (CHI)

• Of 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has the 5th-lowest success rate. He’s ahead of only Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, Bryce Young and P.J. Walker.
  Levis’ comp % of 61.9% is 4th-lowest of those 39 QBs
• In close spread games, Mike Vrabel has performed well. Spread of 3 or less: 21-17 SU, 19-17-2 ATS, including 4-2 ATS in that spot this season.
• Titans have now gone 29 straight games without scoring 30 points.
  Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history
  NYG streak of 43 straight games was last one broken this high in 2022.
• Vrabel is 37-29 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (16-15 SU in Dec. on).

• Last week the streak came to an end. The Steelers are now 9-1 in their last ten one-score games and 11-2 over their last 13 one-score games. Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 21-8-1 in one-score games.
• Steelers are the first team since 1933, when the NFL began tracking rushing and receiving statistics, to be outgained in each of their first eight games and still have a winning record. They’ve now done this through ten games.
• Steelers have allowed 20 pts or less in six straight games. Pittsburgh had a streak of seven such games last year and they haven’t done it in eight straight since 2004.
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 36-23-3 ATS.
  Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Pickett: 22-15-3 ATS
• Steelers are 31-46-1 1H ATS last 5 seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach 1H ATS in that span.
• When Steelers open -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 85-53-6 ATS under Tomlin
• When Steelers close -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 86-57-6 ATS under Tomlin
• Matt Canada in Pittsburgh. 45 games. 0 games with 400 yards of offense. 2 games with 30 points.
  The Steelers have played 45 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense. Their last game with 400+ yards came in the Wild Card playoffs in 2020-21, the game before Canada was hired.
  45 games is the longest active streak in the NFL, longest streak since Rams in 2014-17 (46 games). They are 6th team last 20 years with this long of a streak.
• Steelers scored just 10 pts last week in the loss to Browns. Teams who are over .500 SU and off scoring fewer than 14 pts are 102-77-6 ATS last ten years.
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative avg SU point differential in November or later are 144-173-13 ATS (45.4%) last 20 years.
  Week 12: PIT
• Teams to open as an underdog and close as the favorites have struggled recenty. Those such teams are 49-86 ATS since 2019 and 19-39 ATS since the start of last season.
  Week 12: BAL, PIT, NE
• Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 14-6 SU/ATS w/ TJ Watt, 1-6 SU w/o him (2-4-1 ATS).
• Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, Steelers are 66-43-2 SU, 58-51-2 ATS.
  They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
  Which means they are 64-33-2 SU, 53-45-1 ATS with Watt.
• Steelers are 47-47 SU, 57-33-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin
  SU he’s 2nd-most profitable last 20 years behind Tom Cable (+$2,864)
  ATS he’s most profitable last 20 years (+$2,160)
  Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
  PIT is 4-3 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.
• As a favorite this season, Steelers are 2-1 ATS. Pittsburgh rarely covers as favorites in consecutive years. They were 4-2 ATS last year as favorites. Last b2b years above .500 ATS as favorites for Pittsburgh was in 2004-05.
• Mike Tomlin road unders. They are 81-59-1 (58%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 56-25-1 (69%) last decade.

• Jake Browning gets the start for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out for the season.
  QBs early in their career struggle facing the Steelers.
  QBs making their first career start vs. Steelers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games dating back to 1987.
  QBs in their first ten career starts are 25-73-1 SU facing the Steelers since 1990.
  QBs making their first career start are 37-66-1 SU in the last decade.
• Entering the season, this Cincinnati season had more expectations on it than most.
  Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason. Their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends 2nd-longest drought w/o double-digit win total in NFL – DET).
• During Burrow’s tenure, Bengals have went to a backup QB in starts with Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen and they went 2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS, scoring 16.3 PPG. Burrow is 36-22-1 ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second most profitable QB ATS in the NFL behind only Goff
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" = NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 171-115-6 ATS (59.8%) since 2018 & 34-21-2 ATS this season.
  Week 12: CLE, CAR, CIN, NYG, ATL
• New rule? AFC North division game underdogs are 69-48-3 ATS last decade — .500 ATS or better 9 of 10 years.
• Bengals allowed 34 pts to the Ravens last week. After Cincinnati allows 30 pts or more in their previous game under Zac Taylor, they are 11-6 ATS, including 19-13-1 ATS after allowing 24 pts or more.
• Zac Taylor vs. PIT, Tomlin
  4-4 SU/ATS
  2-1 SU/ATS as favorite (favorite in last three games)

Lowest Bengals Totals Last 20 Years
31 – 2008, CIN at CLE, 14-0
33.5 – 2009-10, CIN at NYJ, 37-0
34 – 2009-10, NYJ at CIN, 24-14
34.5 – 2008, CIN at PIT, 27-10
35 – 2004, BAL at CIN, 23-9
35.5 – 2008, BAL at CIN, 34-3

• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last 3: Home: 8-11 SU | Road: 12-11 SU
  Last 5: Home: 21-17 SU | Road: 25-14 SU
• Allen is 5-13-2 ATS vs. divisional opponents in his career.
  4-7-1 ATS with Raiders
  1-6-1 ATS with Saints
  His 5-13-2 ATS mark is 144th of 145 coaches in profitability last 20 years and among 118 coaches to coach 20+ divisional games since 1990, Allen’s 27.8% ATS win pct is worst of all 118 coaches.
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" =NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 171-115-6 ATS (59.8%) since 2018 & 34-21-2 ATS this season.
  Week 12: CLE, CAR, CIN, NYG, ATL
• Allen-coached teams are just 13-20-1 ATS vs. teams who are under .500 SU on the season
• Allen-coached teams are just 4-12-1 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU on the season. Allen is under .500 ATS in this spot in all five of his seasons as a head coach.
• In his career, Dennis Allen is 20-43 SU. His 31.7% win pct is 8th-worst among all head coaches in the Wild Card era.
• Dennis Allen is a bit better with some prep.
  Short rest: 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS
  Normal rest: 10-27 SU, 12-25 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 9-8 SU, 9-6-2 ATS
  He’s 11-35 SU, 14-32 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach
• Allen’s 7-3-2 ATS on extended rest during the regular season (not Week 1s).
• Allen is 23-38-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 23-38-2 ATS mark is 3rd-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 147. Mike Shanahan, 146. Dennis Allen

• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 or less: 36-51-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 pts: 34-29 ATS
• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the 5th time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous 4 seasons and 2-7-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 2-7-1 ATS
• Saints are definitely going to be favored over the Bears, which isn’t a good thing for Derek Carr.
  Favorite: 18-36-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 52-44-1 ATS
• Carr was 17-29-2 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. Now with the Saints he is 1-7-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016
• Carr is 22-35-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-24-1 ATS at home in that span.

• Falcons are 2-8 ATS this season, T-worst record in the NFL with the Patriots.
• The seesaw QB battle race in Atlanta is back to Desmond Ridder.
  Ridder: 34th EPA/play, 18th success rate, 22nd comp%
  Heinicke: 19th EPA/play, 32nd success rate, 38th comp%
• Falcons are 2-6-2 on the first half moneyline this season
• Falcons are 3-12-4 1H ML, 3-16 1H ATS in their last 19 games.
  Their 7-20 1H ATS last two seasons is the worst in NFL
• Ridder is 1-9-2 straight up and 1-11 against the first half spread in his career. Falcons are failing to cover 1H spread by 6.2 PPG with Ridder at QB.
  1H pts under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0, 7, 10, 10, 3
  Dating back to college, Ridder is 1-13 1H ATS in his last 14 starts.
• Falcons have struggled ATS recently.
  They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall dating back to last season.
  1-8 ATS last 9 games.
• Arthur Smith…
  Sept-Oct: 11-12 ATS
  Nov. on: 6-14-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-4 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 11-20-1 ATS in game 5 forward.
• Arthur Smith off a bye week: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. He is 4-0 ATS on 10+ days rest.
  Coaches 4-0 ATS or better on 10+ days rest last 20 years: Arthur, Steve Wilks, Joe Gibbs, Vic Fangio (5-0 ATS)
  When his team is on extended rest during the season, they are 4-1 SU/ATS
• Rest tends to help losing streaks. Teams on extended rest (8 days or more) on a 3-game losing streak or more, are 133-104-4 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 12: ATL, NE
• Arthur Smith is 10-11 SU, 6-15 ATS at home as a head coach (8-15 SU, 11-11-1 ATS road/neutral)
  Worst Falcons HC ATS at home last 20 years
  Worst home ATS win pct, coaches in Wild Card era (min. 20 games)

1. Matt Rhule 5-15 ATS, 2. Dennis Allen: 8-21 ATS, 3. Arthur Smith: 6-15 ATS

• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Wk 3, 4) – they lost at Lions.
  7 of last 11 games on the road – they are 1-3 SU in this stretch.
  3 of last 4 games are on the road.
• Desmond Ridder is 4-0 ATS vs. NFC South and 0-8 ATS vs. all other divisions.
  Most Profitable NFC South QBs ATS in Division Last 20 Years

1. Delhomme, 2. Taysom Hill (5-0 ATS), 3. Ridder (4-0 ATS)

+ The Falcons lost at home in Week 6 vs. Commanders breaking Desmond Ridder’s streak of 31 consecutive wins at home in college and pros (31-1 SU, 19-13 ATS).
On the road/neutral, Ridder has been much worse.
NFL: 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS
CFB: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS (3-2 SU/ATS neutral)
Total: 16-9 SU, 11-14 ATS

Ridder Home/Road NFL Career
Home Road/Neutral
W-L 5-1 1-5
ATS 2-4 2-4
Pass Rtg 92 76.8
TD-INT 7-4 1-2
Y/A 7.3 6.3
Comp% 67.4 62

• Rams have struggled to score recently. They’ve scored 20 pts or less in four straight games.
  Stafford hasn’t started a game with his team on such a streak since 2018 with the Lions.
  Under McVay, this type of streak has happened twice. His teams are 2-0 ATS in their next game.
• Matthew Stafford is 5-12-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – 2nd-worst mark in the NFL. Last 5 years, he is 22-39-2 2H ATS, the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  He’s 31-56-2 2H ATS after leading at half. Haven’t covered in reg season with this since before Christmas 2021 — 9 straight.
  5-13-1 w Rams | 26-43-1 w Lions
  He’s 48-47-6 2H ATS when trailing HT.
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013.
  Rams, Stafford are 4-4-1 ATS this season. 0-1 ATS w/o Stafford
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 32-66 SU and 36-60-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 9-9 SU and 6-12 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 57-37 SU and 47-43-4 ATS.
• Stafford is 16-21-2 ATS with Rams – 2nd-least profitable QB for franchise last 20 years (Bulger)
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept/Oct: 36-17 SU
  Nov. on: 35-30 SU
• McVay is 25-17-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 34-38-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
  ARI: 11-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (21-7-1 ATS combined)
  SF: 4-10 ATS
• McVay is 11-2-1 ATS vs. Cardinals, his most profitable opponent against the spread.
  In Arizona, McVay is 6-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 10.4 PPG
• Rams are 2-10 SU and 4-6-2 ATS in their last 12 road games dating back to last season.

• Cardinals are 1 of 2 teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season – with the Panthers.
• Welcome back Kyler. Cardinals went the first nine games of the season without being a public side once. Now, two weeks in a row, the public has bought into Arizona and they are 2-0 ATS.
• Cardinals offense has been a rollercoaster this season. From Dobbs to Tune now to Kyler, lets see if they can see some consistency.
  1st 3 games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate
  Next 6 games: 31st offensive EPA/play, 30th in off. success rate
  Week 10 on: 21st offensive EPA/play, 6th off. success rate
• Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently. They are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games in the spot. Cardinals haven’t won or covered a home game vs. NFC West since October 2021
• Since Kyler Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 26-33-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-14 SU.
• Cardinals defense stinks.
  Pressure rate: 17.6% (30th)
  Opp. first downs: 245 (32nd)
  EPA/play on D: 27th
  Opp. success rate: 31st
• Kyler Murray has had success as an underdog and on the road and struggled as a favorite and at home.
  Dog: 22-12-2 ATS | Fav: 9-15 ATS
  Road: 18-9-2 ATS | Home: 13-18 ATS
• Here is how Kyler has performed based on the strength of the opponent.
  Vs. above .500 SU teams: 10-15-2 ATS
  Vs. below .500 SU teams: 16-9 ATS

• With Deshaun Watson now gone for the season with shoulder surgery, another week of Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
  Browns will start a backup QB for the 56th time in the last decade this week. They are 19-36 SU, 26-28-1 ATS in those games.
  Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 4-5 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games with a backup.
  Under Stefanski, Browns are 8-10 SU, 10-7-1 ATS with a backup QB.
• Dorian Thompson-Robinson makes his 3rd career start this week.
  He won last week at home vs. Steelers as 2.5-pt favorites and he faced the Ravens at home earlier this season, losing 28-3 as a 1.5-pt underdog.
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" = NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 171-115-6 ATS (59.8%) since 2018 & 34-21-2 ATS this season.
  Week 12: CLE, CAR, CIN, NYG, ATL
• DTR will try to make history two weeks in a row.
  DTR was the 34th rookie/first season QB to face the Steelers under Mike Tomlin. Those QBs were 5-28 SU, with DTR picking up the 6th ever win.
  Now, he heads to Mile High. QBs in their first year are 5-18 SU on the road in Denver.
  QBs starting in Denver within their first 5 career starts are 11-31-2 SU. Sam Howell was 1 of those wins earlier this season.
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 23-10 SU, 13-20 ATS
  Dog: 10-18 SU, 16-11-1 ATS
• Browns are 13-12-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 12-19 SU, 13-18 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 5-11 ATS in their last 15 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 12-11 SU, 8-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski. Of 145 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is 139th.
  Stefanski is 21-16-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• The Browns pass defense has been unreal.
  3rd-fewest pass yds allowed thru 10 games since 1990.
• Stefanksi is 7-1 SU the game after playing the Steelers or Ravens on the road as coach of the Browns.

• Broncos have now won 4 in a row SU after starting the season 1-5 SU.
  This is the Broncos first 4-game SU win streak since winning 9 straight between 2015-16, which was through their Super Bowl win vs. Panthers
• Beware of bad teams on winning streaks. Teams who are .500 SU or worse, who are on a win streak of 2 games or more are 198-225-11 ATS (46.8%) last 20 years.
  Week 12: IND, DEN
• Broncos have just one rushing TD entering their 11th game of the season this week.
  In the Super Bowl era, Denver is 1 of 8 teams with 1 or fewer rush TD through their first 11 games and the first since Dolphins in 2017 and Jaguars in 2015.
• Broncos are 1-9 against the 3rd quarter spread this season and 8-19 3Q ATS last two seasons.
• Broncos defense is 12th in EPA/play since Week 6. In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.
• Wilson is 15-24 SU over the last three seasons,he was 107-52-1 SU in his first 9 seasons in the NFL.
  Wilson is 6-12 SU in his last 18 starts and 7-15 SU in his last 22 starts for the Broncos.
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
  DEN: 9-16 SU, 9-15-1 ATS
  SU mark is 8th-worst in NFL, ATS is 5th-worst
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Wilson’s 9-16 SU mark has lost bettors $553 with Broncos, making him the 2nd-least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years (Orton, -$628)
• Payton, Broncos are 3-6-1 ATS this season. Payton’s worst season since finishing 6-10 ATS in 2007 and 2014
  Payton has gone 7 straight years w/ his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
  In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total
• Broncos home games have been an under-fest. They are 15-8 last three years and 46-27-1 since 2015 – all eight years .500 or better to the under at home. This season, they are 4-2 to the under at home.

• Bills got their first cover last week since October 1st, beating the Jets 32-6.
  Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games, including 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games
  Bills 11-17-1 ATS mark since start of last year is 4th-worst in the NFL
• Josh Allen has thrown an INT in seven straight games – the first time he’s done that in the regular season in his career.
  December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
  Regular Season:
  He has 72 INT since 2018, most in NFL
  He has 56 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
• Josh Allen has 61 wins in his career. 46 of those 60 wins have been by 7 pts or more.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 31-19-3 ATS on 7 days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 8-9-1 ATS on short rest and 6-13-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 57-35-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 2nd-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 255 QBs.
• In toss up games, Josh Allen has performed well.
  Spread is 3 or less, Allen is 17-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS.
  Spread is 4 or less, Allen is 23-13 SU, 21-14-1 ATS.
• Allen has played 28 games as an underdog in his career. 16-11-2 ATS.
  16-8-2 ATS as a dog in regular season
  0-3 ATS as a dog in the playoffs
• Under is 26-16-2 in Josh Allen road games in his career – 9th-best to the under on the road in the last 20 years, including 10-2 last two seasons.
• Something about the AFC East. After facing the division, Allen’s not so great ATS following week.
  After facing AFC East: 12-20-1 ATS
  After facing all other teams: 33-20-4 ATS
• Allen is 19-5 SU, 14-9-1 ATS vs. NFC in his career.

• When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick. They are 7-4 SU in their last 11 games when trailing by 10 pts or more at any point, including 3-0 SU this season.
  All other teams are 67-299-2 SU (18.3%) in that spot last two seasons entering Week 12
• The Eagles schedule entering Week 9 has been brutal.
  vs. DAL (W), at KC (W), vs. BUF, vs. SF, at DAL, at SEA
• Some relief? Teams are 29-13 SU the week after facing the Chiefs over the last three seasons.
• Impact of Lane Johnson.
  Without him: 13-22 SU
  With him: 88-48-1 SU
• Hurts is 19-9 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, 2nd-best mark of any QB in the NFL. Hurts has lost 3 straight 1H ATS entering Week 12.
• Eagles are 12-4 1H ML in last 16. Hurts is 27-18-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 22-7-1 1H ML – most 1H ML wins in NFL.
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 16-6-1 ATS (2nd of 93 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 10-14-1 ATS (91st of 96 QBs since 2020)
  All other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home.
• The Eagles are 23-2 SU when Jalen Hurts plays the last two regular seasons
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 9-10 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 22-4 SU under that mark.
• Eagles have 31 sacks through ten games this season (T-9th) and they had 70 sacks last season – 3rd-most regular season all-time (72 ‘84 CHI, 71 ‘89 MIN).
• Hurts career on short rest: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
  Hurts has won 6 consecutive starts SU on short rest.
• At home as a favorite, Hurts is 16-1 SU. His only loss was to Taylor Heinicke.
  Hurts is 1-5 SU as a home dog in his career.
• Hurts is 12-3 SU at home vs. teams above .500 SU on the season – he’s won 11 consecutive starts in this spot.
• As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Jalen Hurts is 29-4 SU in his career. His only losses are to Taylor Heinicke, Zach Wilson, Andy Dalton and Daniel Jones.
• ​​Jalen Hurts has been dominant at home as the Eagles QB1
  Full Game: 17-6 SU, 16-6-1 ATS
  1H: 14-7-2 SU, 15-8 ATS
• Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 29-6 SU as a favorite w/ Hurts as the starter, including 24-3 SU as a favorite since the beginning of last season.

• 1 of 2 teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Mahomes has had 27 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, 7th-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 94 (47-46-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 26-27-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 29-20-1 ATS
  1p ET: 14-16-1 ATS | After 1p slate: 39-30-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 25 (11-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 79 (44-34-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 28 (20-7-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 76 (35-40-1 ATS)
• Mahomes is 12-7 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side.
• Chiefs have now scored 21 pts or less in three straight games.
  Mahomes has only started one game in his career with KC on a 3-game streak of 21 pts or less – back in 2021 in Vegas. Chiefs were -3 and won 41-14.
• Chiefs are 2-8 against the 4th quarter spread this season and 16-34 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
• Mahomes career based on rest
  6 days or less: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS
  7 days: 43-12 SU, 29-25-1 ATS
  8+ days: 24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
• Mahomes is 30-2 SU in November and December in last 32 games. He is 36-6 SU in Nov/Dec in his career (48-9 SU in Nov, Dec & Jan).
• Good 3rd down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% 3rd down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 319-252-19 ATS (55.9%) last 20 years.
  Week 12: KC
• Teams to see line move 3 pts or more away from you — ex. -3 to -6 — are 26-32-2 ATS this season – 65-92-3 ATS since start of last year & 122-156-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 12: NE, BAL, KC, PIT, HOU
• Mahomes after a SU loss: 16-3 SU, 11-8 ATS
• Mahomes is 12-1 SU when playing road/neutral after a SU loss in his previous game.
• Road/neutral, Mahomes is 39-11 SU, 29-20-1 ATS in his career.
  He’s 28-7 SU as a road/neutral favorite of 3 pts or more.
• Mahomes in his career is 20-1 SU on the road/neutral as a favorite of over 5 pts.
  His only loss came against the Broncos this season.
  As a road/neutral favorite of over a field goal he is 25-6 SU.
• In his career, Mahomes is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS for the Chiefs the game after scoring less than 20 pts.
• Mahomes career vs. Raiders: 9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS
  Mahomes is 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS on road vs. Raiders
• Mahomes vs. AFC West: 29-4 SU, 17-15-1 ATS
  As a favorite of 7 or more vs. AFC West: 19-2 SU, 9-11-1 ATS
  He covers away from home vs. AFC West, going 15-1 SU, 10-7 ATS
  Mahomes is 16-1 SU on road/neutral vs. AFC West
• Chiefs are -1400 to win the AFC West right now. Chiefs have won the AFC West 7 consecutive years – longest active division streak across four major sports – The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019. Chiefs are currently -1700 to win the AFC West again.

Longest NFL Division Title Streak NFL History
11 – 2009-19 NE
7 – 2016-23 KC
7 – 1973-79 STL

• Largest underdog at home in Vegas for Raiders
  +10: 2022-23 vs. SF, L 37-34
  +8.5: 2022-23 vs. KC, L 31-13
  +7.5: 2020 vs. KC, L 31-35
• Raiders largest home upsets last 20 years
  +14: 2009 vs. PHI
  +10.5: 2018 vs. PIT
  +9: 2009 vs. CIN
  +9: 2006 vs. PIT
  +8: 2014 vs. SF
• Raiders fade late in the season. Historically, the Raiders don’t win in November or later.
  Last 20 years, they’ve been over .500 SU in this window once (2016).
  In 2023, they are 2-1 SU in Nov. or later this season.
• Teams listed as 14+ pt dogs in their previous game are 42-23 1H ATS in their next game since 2015.
• The Raiders team total under is 10-1 this season – best record to the under in the NFL.
• Aidan O’Connell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.
  Only 3 of those 24 are profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell, Terrelle Pryor, and O’Connell (3-1 ATS)
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 15-15 SU, 17-13 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-18 SU, 13-19 ATS
• At 3-0 ATS, Antonio Pierce is already making Raiders history.
  3rd LV coach since 1990 over .500 ATS: Hue Jackson and Jon Gruden
  This season: Pierce: 3-0 ATS | McDaniels: 3-5 ATS

• Holding onto leads have been an issue for Baltimore.
  Over the last two seasons, the Ravens are 9-20 against the 4th quarter spread
• Ravens have lost Mark Andrews for the foreseeable future.
  Ravens are 58-34 SU when Andrews gets at least one target in a game. Baltimore is actually 4-2 SU without Andrews since he joined the team.
• Teams going from EST to PST to play on the road have performed well recently – going 72-51-5 ATS (58.6%) since 2016.
• Ravens are 9-0-2 on the first quarter moneyline this season and they are 18-6-5 1Q ML last two seasons.
• Teams to open as an underdog and close as the favorites have struggled recenty. Those such teams are 49-86 ATS since 2019 and 19-39 ATS since the start of last season.
  Week 12: BAL, PIT, NE
• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and 3 games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 155-108-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,902, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
  With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 143-101-9 1H ATS.
• Teams to see line move 3 pts or more away from you — ex. -3 to -6 — are 26-32-2 ATS this season – 65-92-3 ATS since start of last year & 122-156-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 12: NE, BAL, KC, PIT, HOU
• Over the past three seasons, Lamar Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 11-18 ATS as a favorite, including 5-15 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 21-30 ATS career.
• Lamar is 13-6 SU in night games. He’s won 5 straight night games and 7 of his last 8.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 26-10-1 1H ATS and 21-17-1 1H ATS at home.
  Between 2021-23, he’s 19-15-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
• John Harbaugh with extra time to prepare:
  10+ days: 24-8 SU, 18-12-2 ATS
  Week 1: 12-4 SU/ATS
  Combined: 36-12 SU, 30-16-2 ATS
• When Lamar faces team under .500 SU, he’s 27-4 SU, 15-16 ATS.

• In night games overall, Herbert is 8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS
  5-3 SU at home, 3-5 SU on road in night games
• How has Herbert and Chargers done off a close loss (8 pts or less)? Just 8-12 ATS. He’s just 3-7 SU in his last 10 games in this spot.
• Chargers in Justin Herbert's 60 career starts, including playoffs
  Points scored 1,522
  Points allowed 1,525
• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 9.5 or more
  Jets, Chargers – 4
• The Chargers have played 28 games since the start of last season, and 20 of them have finished within seven points.
  21 of the Chargers last 29 games have been decided by 7 pts or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss.
• Beware of the first road game off a long homestand. Road favorites coming off 3+ home games are 25-44-1 ATS since 2005 – bet the Chargers.
• Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.
  When his defense allows 27 pts or more, LAC is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
  When his defense allows fewer than 27 pts, LAC is 23-6 SU, 22-6-1 ATS
• Herbert is 17-13 ATS on the road, and only 14-15-1 ATS at home in his career.
  Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons. They are 2-3 ATS this season
  Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once at home in the last ten years. They are 2-3 ATS this season
• Herbert by time zone:
  EST/CST: 14-8 ATS
  MST/PST: 17-20-1 ATS
• Herbert and the Chargers haven’t performed well off close games lately. They are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games coming off of a 3 pt decision either way in their last game.
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
  Underdog: 13-9 ATS, 19-3 in 6-pt teasers
  Favorite: 18-19-1 ATS, 27-8-1 in 6-pt teasers
• Herbert is 16-20-1 ATS in “toss up” games in his career – or games with a spread of 4 pts or less – including 11-17-1 ATS with spread of 3 or less. He’s 2-8-1 ATS in his last 11 games in this spot, with his two wins over Cousins, Vikings and Wilson, Jets.
• As an underdog of 3 pts or more, Herbert is 10-4 ATS – 5-1 ATS since start of last season in this spot.
• Herbert is 34-26 1H ATS, he’s 17-11 1H ATS since start of last season – 5th-best mark in the NFL.
  Herbert is 13-3 1H ATS in night games – the 2nd-best mark since 2005 behind just Peyton Manning.
• Herbert is 18-37-5 against the second half spread in his career.
  Since 2005, he’s 251st of 255 QBs in 2H ATS profitability
  Can’t hold a lead: he’s 8-25-2 2H ATS when leading at HT (-$1,764, 3rd-worst in NFL since 2005)
  When Herbert’s had the lead at half in a night game, he’s 2-10-1 2H ATS.
  In night games, Herbert is 4-11-1 2H ATS

Herbert 2H ATS Career
2023: 3-6-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS

• Unders on Monday Night Football are 12-1 in 2023 and 57-28-1 since 2019.
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 102-47-1 (67.8%) since 2018, including 26-5 so far this season.
• Not a great spot for Chicago. Teams who have extended rest in b2b games, and lost the previous game, where they are an underdog in the next game, are 20-43 SU (31.7%) since 1990.
• This is the Bears 15th night game since 2020 – they are 4-10 SU, 4-10 ATS in that span.
  The Bears 4-10 ATS mark at night is 4th-worst in the NFL (TB, NO, NE)
  Bears are 3-1 SU in their last four night games, beating the Panthers, Commanders and Patriots.
• Since start of last season, Bears are 6-21 SU .. 3-3 SU at night, 3-19 SU not at night.
• Fields in night games: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS | all other times: 4-21 SU, 7-17-1 ATS
• Since 2016, Bears are 3-12 SU on the road at night & Fields is 3-13 SU on the road in his career.
• Bears are 1-9 SU in their last 10 road games and 2-13 SU in their last 15 road games. Chicago’s five SU road wins since 2021, is tied for fewest in the NFL.
• Bears are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS on extended rest this season.
  Here is how the Bears have done on extended rest recently.
  Since 2021: 1-8 SU, 4-5 ATS
  Since 2020: 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS
• Bears are 7-4 to the over this year (T-best mark in NFL) and 17-11 to the over since start of last season, best mark in the NFL.
• Bears haven’t won consecutive games SU since January 2nd, 2022.
• The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 6-20-1 ATS vs the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,424 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.
  CHI is 20-30-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019
• Fields is 6-26 SU, 10-21-1 ATS in his career.
  Min. 20 starts, Fields has lowest ATS win pct last 20 years (32.3%).

1. Fields, 122. McCoy 12-23-1 ATS, 121. Bruce Gradkowski 7-13-1 ATS

• Fields 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS vs. NFC North
• Fields is 12-19-1 1H ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted in 2021, only Tom Brady, Desmond Ridder and Kyler Murray have been worse 1H ATS.
• When Bears opponents score more than 20 pts vs. a Justin Fields-Bears team, they are 21-0 SU. All 6 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 pts or less.

• Josh Dobbs has started three night games in his career, two with Titans and now one with the Vikings.
  2023 at Broncos, +2.5 = L, 21-20
  2022-23: at Jaguars, +6.5 = L, 20-16
  2022: vs. Cowboys, +13.5 = L, 27-13
• Vikings lost on SNF to the Broncos and now play at night again. Teams playing at night for a second straight game, after losing the first game, are just 45-73 SU (38.1%).
• Vikings in night games under O’Connell: Five games, 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS.
• Vikings are 11-7 SU in home night games since 2009.
  Vikings have played 33 road or neutral night games since 2009, they are 7-26 SU in those games, 2nd-worst in the NFL ahead of just the Bengals.
• Vikings are 10-0-1 to the first quarter under this season.
• Kirk Cousins is now in Minnesota’s past and Josh Dobbs is the quarterback of the now.
  The Vikings 22 pass TD is T-most in the NFL and their 2,934 pass yards is also most in the league.
• With Kirk out, Minnesota will continue to go to a back up QB.
  Since 2015, only four backup QBs have started for Minnesota: Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 14-7 SU, 14-7 ATS in 21 games filling in for the Vikings.
• Kevin O’Connell as a favorite and an underdog
  Favorite: 15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS
  Underdog: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS
• The Vikings are 8-3 to the under this season. Between 2020-22, Minnesota was 34-16-1 to the over in that span.
• Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell by time of day
  1P ET or earlier: 16-3 SU, 10-8-1 ATS
  2P ET or later: 3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS
• Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota has now played three straight one-score games entering Week 12 and they’ve played ten one-score games in 2023 (5-5 SU) in 11 total games.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (incl. postseason)
2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)
1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

System: This system specifically looks at divisional game unders.

Matches: JAC/HOU, ARI/LAR

System: Good ATS teams, with a bad scoring margin have had an edge later in the season.

Matches: IND, TB, CIN, KC, LAR

System: A profitable system for betting teams after they get blown out.

Matches: CAR

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• WR Nelson Agholor and TE Tommy Tremble move into Top 10 with +600 and +450 hits, respectively.
• Top 3 Biggest TD Hits of W11: Ty Johnson +1600, Josh Oliver +1300, Giants Defense +1100.

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Vikings TE Josh Oliver with the big +6000 first TD scorer hit! Jumps to 5th in Top 10. Rest of top stayed same.
• After Tommy Tremble scored first for Carolina this week, he is now 3rd on the profit list for team 1st TD scorers.

League Trends ⤵️

Second half unders continue to be the play. 98-68-1 (59%) this season and 249-190-12 last two years. 2H unders have been over .500 for 11 consecutive seasons.

Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 102-47-1 (67.8%) since 2018, including 26-5 so far this season. Saints/Falcons and Bears/Vikings this week.

Unders have excelled this season in non-divisional games

• 26-25 in divisional games
• 73-42-1 in non-divisional games

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Jalen Hurts (+250)	Lamar Jackson (+400)	Patrick Mahomes (+450)
Offensive POY	Tyreek Hill (+110)	Christian McCaffrey (+175)	AJ Brown (+700)
Defensive POY	Myles Garrett (+100)	Micah Parsons (+200)	T.J. Watt (+325)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-3000)	Jahmyr Gibbs (+1800)	Puka Nacua (+1800)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-175)	Devon Witherspoon (+130)	Brian Branch (+2200)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-150)	Josh Dobbs (+400)	Tua Tagovailoa (+400)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+125)	DeMeco Ryans (+300)	Mike McDaniel (+500)
Updated as of November 23rd

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• We have a new MVP favorite with Jalen Hurts now +250 ahead of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
• Myles Garrett is running away with DPOY award, at +100 odds now as the favorite.
• Comeback player of the year is a 3-horse race. Damar Hamlin, Josh Dobbs and Tua Tagovailoa.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Over the last 20 years, who is the most profitable QB ATS in the month of November?

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