NFL Thanksgiving Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Thanksgiving Week has arrived and we have three games on Thursday: Packers vs. Lions, Commanders vs. Cowboys and 49ers vs. Seahawks. We also have the first ever Black Friday game — Dolphins vs. Jets
Let's look at this mini slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Thanksgiving special of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Thursday, Nov. 23, 12p ET.
Restore The Roar
Lions Favored on Thanksgiving
This is the Lions first game as a favorite on Thanksgiving since 2016. Detroit is 8-0 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the past 30 years.
Lions are favored vs. the Packers in both their meetings this season. This is the first time that has happened since 2017 and just the second time since both 1990 and 1991.
Our Favorite Thanksgiving
If the Lions, Cowboys and 49ers all close as 7-pt favorites or higher, it will be the first Thanksgiving slate with three TD favorites since we added a third game back in 2006. TD favorites or higher are 21-2 SU and 17-6 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2006.
The last Thanksgiving slate where we had every game close -7 or higher was back in 2001 with Brian Griese vs. Ryan Leaf and Brett Favre vs. Charlie Batch.
Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 46-8 straight up (SU) and 36-18 against the spread (ATS). In that span, road favorites are 24-1 SU and 19-6 ATS on Thanksgiving with the only loss coming back in 2009, when the Giants lost to the Broncos, 26-6.
Favorites of over 10 pts are 8-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the past 30 years
Betting Thanksgiving in the past has been as easy as following the crowds.
- Favorites with 60%+ of tickets are 22-8 ATS
- Public sides (51%+ of tickets) are 32-18 ATS
- Public sides, who are favorites, are 28-13 ATS
- Public sides are .500 ATS or better every year since 2014 and 10 of the past 11 years
- Since 2005, eight teams have closed with 74% or more of the spread tickets on Thanksgiving and those sides went 8-0 SU and ATS.
Biggest Public Sides on Thanksgiving Since 2005
80%: 2019 Saints, -7 at ATL (W, 26-18)
79%: 2005 Falcons, -3 at DET (W, 27-7)
77%: 2012 Patriots, -7 at NYJ (W, 49-19)
77%: 2008 Cowboys, -11.5 vs. SEA (W, 34-9)
75%: 2010 Patriots, -6 at DET (W, 45-24)
75%: 2008 Titans, -11 at DET (W, 47-10)
74%: 2016 Steelers, -8.5 at IND (W, 28-7)
74%: 2007 Colts, -13.5 at ATL (W, 31-13)
History In The Making?
Both the Lions and Cowboys are big favorites this week and we could see some history …
Biggest Upsets on Thanksgiving since 1980
1993 — Dolphins +10 over DAL
2015 — Bears +7.5 over GB
1986 — Seahawks +7.5 over DAL
2021 — Raiders +7 over DAL
1993 — Bears +7 over DET
1989 — Lions +7 over CLE
Every NFL Game For Thanksgiving
|Jordan Love, GB|
|Jared Goff, DET|
- Packers have played on Thanksgiving six times in the past 20 years.
They are an even 3-3 SU and ATS. Their last appearance was back in 2015 against the Bears. They haven’t faced the Lions on Thanksgiving since 2013 — Matt Stafford beat Matt Flynn 40-10 as a 7-pt favorite.
- Three qualified QBs this season have a completion percentage below 60%: Zach Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love.
Love’s 59.7% completion percentage through 10 games is the lowest for any Green Bay QB (minimum 300 pass attempts) since Brett Favre in 2006.
- Packers have been underdogs of 7 or more just three times since 2019. Packers lost all 3 games SU, but went 2-1 ATS.
Packers haven’t been +7 or higher vs. NFC North since Dec. 31, 2017 in Detroit against the Lions. At +7.5, GB lost 35-11.
- Largest Packers Underdog vs. NFC North/Central since 1990
+10.5 – 1992 at DET (W, 27-13)
+8.5 – 2000 at TB (L, 20-15)
+8.5 – 2017 vs. MIN (L, 16-0)
+8.5 – 1991 at CHI (L, 27-13)
+7.5 – 2017 at DET (L, 35-11)
- Packers have lost 4 consecutive games SU vs. Lions
Green Bay hasn't lost 5 straight vs. Detroit since 1949-54, when it lost 11 straight against the Lions.
- LaFleur is 47-34 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
- LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 17-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Aaron Rodgers and 5-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-24 ATS.
- LaFleur in primetime games with Packers is 20-12 SU, 18-14 ATS
- Since 2017, Packers are just 2-11 ATS vs. Lions.
Lions are LaFleu’s least profitable opponent ATS (2-7 ATS).
- LaFleur only 3-4 ATS at night on short rest. LaFleur is 5-6 ATS in general on short rest.
- Fewest games favored in season for Packers
1 – 2023 (1-0 ATS)
2 – 1991 (0-2 ATS)
3 – 1992 (2-1 ATS)
5 – 2006 (2-3 ATS)
5 – 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
6 – 1990 (2-4 ATS)
6 – 2017 (4-2 ATS)
- Jordan Love has been streaky as an NFL QB.
Started 4-0 ATS, 2-5 ATS since.
Love has closed as a favorite 1 time in his 11-start career.
- Love doesn’t play as good vs. good sack teams. Lions have 3.7% of plays end in a sack.
More than 3%, Love is 2-4 ATS
Less than 3%, Love is 3-1 ATS
- Lions are 8-10 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 8-11 ATS since 2004
Recently, they’ve been better, going 8-3 ATS since 2012
- In Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of 7 pts or more on Thanksgiving are 27-4 SU and 23-8 ATS
- Since 2005, the public have faded the Lions ATS 12 times on Thanksgiving (spread % of 51% or more on opp) — DET is 0-12 SU in those games (3-9 ATS)
- This is the Lions first game as a favorite on Thanksgiving since 2016.
DET QBs favored on Thanksgiving since 2000: Goff, Stafford, Batch
(add Gus Frerotte, Scott Mitchell & Rodney Peete for past 30 years)
- Over is 7-4 in past 11 Lions games on Thanksgiving.
Past two have gone under. First back-to-back unders for DET on Thanksgiving since 2002-06.
- Lions go as their role on Thanksgiving. Since 2004:
as Favorite: 4-0 SU
as Underdog: 0-15 SU
- Lions are 1-17 SU as an underdog on Thanksgiving since 2000.
Lions are 3-19 SU, 8-14 ATS as a 'dog on Thanksgiving in Wild Card era (since 1990)
DET is 8-0 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the past 30 years
DET is 10-1 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
- Lions are favored vs. the Packers in both their meetings this season – first time that has happened since 2017 and just 2nd time since both 1990 and 1991.
- Goff on Thanksgiving: 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS
Lost by 3 pts in 2022 with Lions == covered +9.5
Lost by 2 pts in 2021 with Lions == covered +2.5
- Goff has played 16 games on short rest in his career, he is 6-10 SU, 9-7 ATS. He’s covered 5 of his past 6 starts on short rest, but he’s just 1-4 SU on short rest with the Lions and 2-7 SU on short rest in his past 9 starts.
- The Lions have entered Thanksgiving on a 3-game win streak in back-to-back years. Prior to that, Lions had done that once since 2000 (2017).
+ Lions are 7-3 ATS this season
7-3 ATS is best Lions 10-game start since 2010 (also 7-3 ATS)
- Jared Goff and the Lions will play their final 7 games in a dome.
GB, at NO, CHI, DEN, at MIN, at DAL, MIN
- Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
Indoor: 30-15 ATS (20-7 ATS past 3 seasons)
Outdoor: 34-34-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov. or earlier | 9-14-1 ATS in Dec./Jan.)
- Entering Thanksgiving, Lions are -1200 to win the NFC North.
DET was +135 to win division entering season – shortest division odds for DET past 20 years – Lions were favored to win NFC North in preseason for 1st time since current iteration of division (2002). Last time they had best odds for division was 1992.
- Dan Campbell 34-22 ATS (60.7%) career. Of 115 NFL coaches that have had 50+ games experience under their belt since 1990, Dan Campbell has the best ATS win percentage.
- Goff is 19-7-1 against the first-half spread over the past two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
- Goff is most profitable QB ATS over past 5 years (46-26-1 ATS, +$1,669).
- Lions are 30-14 ATS (68.2%) since the start of the 2021 season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,334). 2nd-best is Dallas.
Lions are 3 wins away from 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (7-3 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
Lions are 16-4 ATS in their past 20 games.
- Goff is 20-9 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL.
Goff on the road since 2020: 16-12 ATS
- Goff’s 11-game ATS winning streak vs. NFC North was broken by Bears last week.
Goff is 24-14-1 ATS vs. division foes in his career – 9th of 249 QBs past 20 years.
With Detroit, Goff is 11-3 ATS vs. NFC North
Most profitable QBs ATS in Division vs. NFC North past 20 years
- Rodgers, 2. Goff, 3. Brad Johnson
Highest Lions Spreads for Jared Goff as Starter
-9.5: 2023 vs. CAR (W, 42-24)
-8: 2023 vs. CHI (W, 31-26)
-7: 2023 vs LV (W, 26-14)
|Sam Howell, WAS|
|Dak Prescott, DAL|
- A rare spot for the Commanders this week. They were -7.5 last week and are now a double-digit underdog. Just the 27th team to do that in the past 20 years and those teams are 4-22 SU, 12-11-3 ATS as a double-digit 'dog.
- Washington has struggled on Thanksgiving (4-8 SU all-time) historically, but is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2010.
- In Ron Rivera’s career, he has coached two games on Thanksgiving
2020 Washington at Cowboys. WAS +2.5, W, 41-16
2015 Carolina at Cowboys. CAR -1, W, 33-14
- Double-digit divisional underdogs are 0-3 ATS this season.
- Washington has done a good job of winning on the road in primetime lately. The Commanders are 12-9 SU on the road at 4:00 p.m. ET or later since 2020, 3rd-most profitable team on the moneyline in the NFL.
- Sam Howell is 1st in the NFL in passing yards and completions, 7th in pass TDs, 3rd in 1st down completions — all while taking the most sacks of any QB.
- Sam Howell has been sacked 51 times this season, most of any QB. The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL.
Most Times Sacked as QB — Through 11 Games
58 — David Carr, 2002
51 — Sam Howell, 2023
50 — David Carr, 2005
- Howell is 5-1 ATS in his career on the road. All six games have ended in one-score games.
Howell is 1-4-1 ATS at home
With a cover vs. Cowboys, Howell will become the best Washington QB ATS on the road over the past 20 years.
Best Washington QB ATS on road past 20 years: 1. Grossman 6-2 ATS, 2. Howell 5-1 ATS, 3. T Hasselbeck 3-0 ATS
- The 'dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 61-43-3 ATS as an underdog and 47-53-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
Most profitable coaches ATS as 'dog past 20 years: Tomlin, Payton, Harbaugh, Rivera.
- Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 4-7 1H ATS this season and 29-43-2 1H ATS since 2019 — second-worst coach 1H ATS in NFL behind Tomlin.
- Ron Rivera likes the "rah rah" spot. 24-15-2 ATS as 'dog vs. own division, including 8-4-2 ATS with Washington
His 24-15-2 ATS mark as a 'dog in division is 5th-best of all coaches past 20 years.
- Biggest Favorites on Thanksgiving Since 2010
-11.5 == 2018, Saints vs. ATL (W, 31-17)
-10 == 2010, Jets vs. CIN (W, 26-10)
-10 == 2013, Cowboys vs. OAK (W, 31-24)
-10 == 2022, Cowboys vs. NYG (W, 28-20)
- Favorites of over 10 pts are 8-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the past 30 years
- Cowboys are 6-12 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005.
- In Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of 7 pts or more on Thanksgiving are 27-4 SU and 23-8 ATS
- Over has been the play for Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Over has won 3 straight. 1st 3-game over streak for DAL on Thanksgiving since 2001-03. Never gone 4 straight since 1980.
Over is 9-4 in past 13 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving since 2010.
- Cowboys have lost 4 straight games ATS on Thanksgiving.
They are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 Thanksgiving games dating back to 2011 — failing to cover the spread by 11.8 PPG.
- Favorites on Thanksgiving Since 2005
Cowboys: 5-9 ATS
All other teams: 29-9 ATS
- Cowboys have lost 6 straight 1H ATS on Thanksgiving and are 1-12 1H ATS on Thanksgiving since 2010.
- Dak Prescott on Thanksgiving
3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS, 1-5 1H ATS
His 1-5 ATS mark on Thanksgiving is the worst for any QB since 1990
- Dak Prescott is just 6-10 ATS on short rest in his career.
Of 211 QBs over the past 20 years on short rest, Dak is 204th ATS.
- Cowboys have been favorites of a TD or more 13 times on Thanksgiving since 1990. They are 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS
- Ceedee Lamb has 74 receptions in Dallas’ first 10 games, most by a Cowboys player all-time
- Dak is 7-0 ATS coming off a loss past two seasons and 6-9 ATS off a SU win.
7-0 ATS mark is best in the NFL – QBs 3-0 ATS or better off loss past two years: Dak, Watson (4-0), Darnold (3-0)
- Dak Precott tends to perform well as a big favorite. He’s 34-7 SU, 29-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 pts or more
His 29-11-1 ATS mark is 2nd-most profitable past 20 years of 144 QBs, behind just Tom Brady.
He’s 23-4 SU, 18-8-1 ATS as a 6+ pt favorite at home
As a double-digit favorite, Dak is 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS. If Dak covers as double-digit favorite on Thanksgiving, he will become 3rd-best QB past 20 years as double-digit favorite: 1. Peyton Manning 2. Brett Favre 3. Dak Prescott
As a favorite of 6 or more vs. NFC East, Dak is 14-1 SU, 12-3 ATS.
- Dak does well vs. bad teams. He is 34-10 SU, 30-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 and 21-23 SU, 17-27 ATS vs. teams above .500.
The 30-13-2 ATS mark is 2nd best in the past 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
The 17-27 ATS mark is 255th of 259 QBs in the past 20 years.
- Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 17 targets in the red zone this year, T-most in the NFL with Davante Adams
- Can the Cowboys keep it going? Past three seasons …
After a loss SU: 12-1 ATS
After a win SU: 17-14 ATS
- If you bet on Dak to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). 2nd was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
This season, you would be down 0.8 units betting a “yes” INT for Dak.
- Cowboys are off back-to-back big wins, winning by 20+ pts in both games.
This is just the 9th time since 1990 Dallas has won back-to-back games by 20+ and first time since 1994 they’ve done it twice in the same season. Dallas is 6-2 SU, 2-5-1 ATS in the 3rd game after back-to-back blowouts.
- Dak Prescott is 5-8-1 ATS in MST or PST time zones, but he’s 57-41-1 ATS in EST and CST.
- Cowboys have covered 5 straight home games dating back to last season. Dallas is 10-2 ATS at home in their past 12 games.
Cowboys have won 12 in a row at AT&T Stadium, the longest home winning streak in franchise history and the longest active home winning streak in the NFL.
Since 2015, only three teams have had a 13+ home win streak: 21 2017-19 NE, 14 2014-16 CAR, 13 2014-15 GB
- Mike McCarthy is 60-39 ATS vs. division opponents with GB/DAL (12-9 ATS w/ DAL).
Past 20 years, he’s most profitable coach vs. division opponents ATS (+$1,828)
Vs. Div: 50-27 ATS as favorite, 10-12 ATS as underdog
- Dak Prescott has had success playing against the NFC East.
He’s 29-8 SU, 26-11 ATS.
Past 20 years, he’s 4th-most profitable QB ATS vs. his own division. 1. Rodgers, 2. Big Ben, 3. Brady, 4. Dak
Dak is 26-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,368), 36-38-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$413)
|Brock Purdy, SF|
|Geno Smith, SEA|
- Night favorites are 12-4 ATS (75%) on Thanksgiving since 2005 with unders going 11-5 in those games — 7-1 in the past 8 night games.
- Past 20 years, favorites of 7 or more on the road on Thanksgiving are 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS. With the only ATS loss coming last year (Bills).
- SF is 1 of 2 teams this season favored in every game (KC)
- 49ers have played two games on Thanksgiving over the past 50 years
2014 vs. SEA, SF -1, SEA 19-3 – Colin Kaepernick vs. Russell Wilson
2011 at BAL, SF +3.5, BAL 16-6 – Alex Smith vs. Joe Flacco
- Purdy is 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS at home, just 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS on road.
- In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 19-4 SU, 15-8 ATS. In those 23 games, McCaffrey has 27 total TDs.
- Most profitable 49ers QB ATS past 20 years: Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Purdy 11-7 ATS
- 49ers are 30-20 ATS past three seasons – 4th-most profitable team in NFL (DET, DAL, CIN)
- Shanahan in night games with 49ers: 17-14 ATS
10-12 ATS as a favorite | 7-2 ATS as an underdog
- Brock Purdy has made five starts at night for the 49ers. He is 4-1 SU/ATS in those games – best 49ers QB ATS at night over the past 20 years.
Purdy beat the Seahawks in Seattle in his first night start last year
- 49ers are on short rest this week after back-to-back blowout wins.
Kyle Shanahan has performed well on short rest, going 13-6 SU, 11-7-1 ATS
Shanahan’s 7-2 ATS mark on short rest since 2021 is 2nd-best of all coaches, behind just Sean McVay
- Kyle Shanahan vs. NFC West
As Favorite: 9-10-1 ATS
As Underdog: 13-7 ATS
- The 49ers went 7-0 SU/ATS vs. NFC West last season. This year, they are 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS vs. NFC West.
San Francisco has won 9 straight games SU vs. NFC West.
The record for SU wins vs. own division is 16 by 2012-15 IND and 1972-73 MIA.
The SF franchise record is 12 back in 1997-98
- Under Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers are 0-37 when trailing by 8 or more points in the 4th quarter.
- Kyle Shanahan is 1-31 when trailing by 3+ points entering the 4th quarter.
- Home dogs are 2-27 SU on Thanksgiving since 2000 and 1-22 SU since 2005.
- Seahawks have played four total games on Thanksgiving in their history. They are just 2-2 SU, most recently playing in 2014 and 2008.
- A very unique spot for the Seahawks this week. If they close +7 or higher, they'd become just the 6th team over the past decade — this late into the season (11th game or later) — with this high of a SU win percentage (60%) to be a TD home 'dog to a divisional opponent. The previous five lost SU and ATS, losing by a combined score of 77-191.
- Geno Smith is 21-16-2 ATS as a 'dog, but only 10-13 ATS as a favorite.
- Geno has performed well off a loss. He’s 20-14 ATS. After a SU win, he’s only 9-13-2 ATS.
- Geno has faced the 49ers three times in his career and is 0-3 SU/ATS, all three games coming with the Seahawks.
49ers are Geno’s least profitable opponent ATS as he’s failing to cover the spread by 8.3 PPG
53 QBs have faced Kyle Shanahan, his 3-0 ATS record vs. Geno Smith is the best of all 53.
- Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going …
Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
Carroll in Week 3 on: 110-92-7 ATS
- Carroll has covered two straight vs. NFC West. He hasn’t had a 3-game ATS win streak vs. NFC West since December 2018.
Seahawks are 2-1 ATS vs. NFC West this season. They haven’t finished above .500 ATS vs. NFC West since 2014.
Least Profitable Coaches ATS vs. Own Division at Home Since 2017:
- John Harbaugh: 6-14 ATS, 73. Carroll: 8-13 ATS, 72. Kingsbury: 3-8 ATS
- Pete Carroll is 54-39-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog eight straight years.
Carroll is 16-12 SU, 19-9 ATS as a home 'dog. That ATS mark is 2nd-best of 146 coaches over the past 20 years, behind only Tomlin.
Biggest Home 'Dog Career Pete Carroll
+9.5 == 2010-11, vs. NO (W, 41-36; playoffs)
+7.5 == 2018, vs. LAR (L, 33-31)
+7 == 2011, vs. BAL (W, 22-17)
+7 == 2010, vs. NYG (L, 41-7)
- The divisional battles might take it out of Seattle. The Seahawks are 6-13 ATS after facing an NFC West opponent under Carroll since 2020, making him 2nd-least profitable coach ATS in that spot
- Pete Carroll is 38-17-1 SU, 35-18-3 ATS in his career at night.
Since 1990, 32 coaches have 20+ night games under their belt. Carroll’s 66% ATS win percentage at night is 2nd-best of the 32 coaches, behind just Tony Dungy.
- Geno Smith has played 10 games at night in his career and is 3-7 SU, but 8-2 ATS. He’s been listed as an underdog in eight of those 10 games.
|Tua Tagovailoa, MIA|
|Tim Boyle, NYJ|
- First ever Black Friday game in the NFL
- Tua has played in 8 night games and 2 morning games in his career – a total of 10 “primetime” or standalone games. He is 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS in those games.
- Tua is 9-4-1 ATS vs. AFC East in his career. Over the past 20 years, Tua is the 3rd-most profitable QB vs. AFC East opponents, behind Geno Smith at 2 and Tom Brady 1. With a cover Sunday, Tua would pass Geno.
- Since 2021, Dolphins are 4-11 SU vs. teams above .500 and 16-7 SU vs. teams below .500.
The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season (9/25/22). Only two teams don't have a SU win over a team with a winning record in this span == Bears: 0-10, Dolphins: 0-7
- Dolphins offense is still highest in the NFL at 7 YPP. 2nd-highest through 10 games all-time, behind 2000 Rams (7.3).
Usually teams with early year high-power offenses come back to reality. Teams who average 6+ YPP in November or later are 44-54-4 ATS over the past 20 years.
- The Dolphins are still averaging 30.5 PPG this season, best in the NFL, entering Week 12.
Teams to average 30 PPG or more in 10th game or later are 128-153-8 ATS past 20 years. Those teams are 51-72-5 ATS when not playing at home.
- Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 16-6 ATS at home and 9-12-1 ATS away from home in his career.
Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
Miami is 37-21-3 ATS since 2016 at home — best home team ATS in that span
- Tua by time zone: 22-10-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
- Tyreek Hill watch …
Tyreek has 1,222 receiving yards through 10 games — most for any player since 1961. Hill is 778 receiving yards shy of 2,000 and 743 yards shy of breaking the single-season record (1,964), set by Calvin Johnson in 2012.
Through 10 games last year, Tyreek had 1,148 receiving yds (that season is 10th-most through 10 games all-time).
Tyreek was +950 to lead NFL in receiving yards entering this year (3rd-top choice).
- When Tua faces an opposing offense averaging 21 PPG or less, he is 13-5 SU, including 12-1 SU in his past 13.
- Tua is 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS as a favorite of over 4 pts. In his career, he has avoided the big upset bug.
Tua has been a double-digit favorite six times in his career, he is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS
- Tua faces a pretty good “sack defense” this week in the Jets.
Here is how the Dolphins have performed based on the opponents sack percentage (The opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense). The Jets are at 3.6%.
At 3.5% or higher, Tua is 8-8 SU
At less than 3.5%, Tua is 17-8 SU
- Teams to lose by 20 pts or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 87-58-1 ATS (60%) since 2020.
- Getting points at home in a standalone game isn’t a bad thing. Games played not on a Sunday, here is how home 'dogs have performed over the past 20 years.
+7.5 or higher: 27-23-1 ATS
+10 or higher: 17-8 ATS
- Jets have had bad offensive struggles this season, which had led to Zach Wilson getting benched and Tim Boyle now starting.
Jets have 9 TD in 10 games. They are the first team since the 2009 Browns (also 9) to fail to score 10 offensive touchdowns in their first 10 games.
Jets are 30-for-131 on third downs (22.9%). Through 10 games, that is the 4th-worst 3rd down percentage in the Wild Card era and the worst since the 2009 Chiefs.
- Zach Wilson had been a starting QB for 2.5 seasons. Wilson became the first player since the NFL merger to record the worst passer rating two years in a row last year (2021 & 2022). In 2023, he has the 5th-worst passer rating in the NFL, ahead of just Daniel Jones, Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent and Ryan Tannehill. Wilson’s Passer Rating ranks …
2023: 73.8, 30th
2022: 72.8, 33rd (last)
2021: 69.7, 31st (last)
- Zach Wilson has 946 pass attempts in his career and 21 TD passes (2.2% TD pass pct).
No QB in the Super Bowl era has thrown that many pass attempts with that low of a TD pass percentage.
- Tim Boyle will be making his first start for the Jets this week. Here is how backup QBs have performed in their first start for a team:
Past 5 years + this year (since ‘19): 37-82-1 SU, 67-51-2 ATS
Past 3 years + this year (since ‘21): 23-49-1 SU, 39-33-1 ATS
Past year + this year (since ‘22): 15-30 SU, 25-20 ATS
- Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 9.5 or more
Jets, Chargers – 4
- Jets have struggled vs. AFC East. They are 6-27 SU, 11-22 ATS vs. their own division since 2018 – the least profitable team both SU and ATS in the NFL.
- In 13 division games, Robert Saleh is 3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS. Jets are 3-4 SU at home and 0-8 SU on the road vs. AFC East.
- Saleh and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
20 PPG or higher: 8-20 SU
19.9 PPG or less: 6-7 SU
- With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets are starting a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 6-30 SU, 13-22-1 ATS over the past decade when starting a backup QB.
- Jets have struggled on short rest …
Saleh has coached four games on short rest, Jets are 0-4 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 10 PPG.
Since 2021, Jets are 1 of 2 NFL teams without a SU win on short rest, the other is the Falcons (0-3 SU).
Since 1990, Saleh is 1 of 2 coaches 0-4 ATS or worse on short rest, the other is Jim Haslett.
- Jets are +1100 to make the playoffs right now. Jets haven’t made playoffs in 12 seasons – longest drought in NFL.
Longest Active Playoff Drought 4 Major Sports
12 – Jets
12 – Sabres
The Betting Markets
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️
|Biggest NFL Thanksgiving Public Sides|
49ers (-7) at SEA
|80% of bets|
Dolphins (-9.5) vs. NYJ
|74% of bets|
|Biggest NFL Thanksgiving Line Moves|
Dolphins (+2.5 to -9.5) at NYJ
49ers (-1.5 to -7) at SEA
NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️
|Most Bet Games By Ticket Count on Thanksgiving|
Packers at Lions (-8)
49ers at Seahawks (+7)
|Biggest NFL Thanksgiving Public Totals|
WAS-DAL (O/U: 48.5)
|67% of bets to over|
SF-SEA (O/U: 44)
|67% of bets to under|
NFL Betting Systems
System: Is this Washington's bounceback spot (cover)? Teams off a SU loss as a favorite of 7 pts or more are covering 55.5% of their next games over the past 20 years.
System: Fade the team who has it all stacked against them. Teams off a win as an underdog, who are on short rest as an underdog again, are 42-70-4 ATS over the past 20 years.
System: A system that focuses on betting teams after they got blown out in their previous game.
Matches: NYJ, CAR
For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer
Trivia Question: Thanksgiving every year is on a Thursday, which means for most teams, it is played on short rest (6 days or less). Over the past 20 years, which QB is the most profitable ATS on short rest?
❌ Click This Button For Trivia Answer ✅
Philip Rivers. 25-9 ATS on short rest.