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NFL Week 13 Expert Bets: Picks for Titans vs Eagles, Commanders vs Giants, Dolphins vs 49ers

NFL Week 13 Expert Bets: Picks for Titans vs Eagles, Commanders vs Giants, Dolphins vs 49ers article feature image
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Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa.

Follow Chris Raybon in the Action App to get all his betting picks.



NFL Week 13 Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Titans vs. Eagles
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Commanders vs. Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dolphins vs. 49ers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Titans Odds +5.5
Eagles Odds -5.5
Moneyline +172 / -205
Over/Under 44.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel NJ

Chris Raybon: The Titans match up well with the Eagles. On offense, Derrick Henry should be able to shred an Eagles defense that entered Week 12 ranked 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the run. And on defense, the Titans boasted the league’s No. 1 run defense entering Week 12 and held the Bengals to under 4.0 yards per carry.

This is also the kind of spot you want to back Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel. According to our Action Labs data, the Titans are 21-7 (75%) against the spread (ATS) under Vrabel when they’re underdogs of three or more points.

This line has moved quickly, and Titans +6.5 is no longer available as of Tuesday morning. Use our live NFL odds page to get the latest numbers across sportsbooks.

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Commanders Odds -1.5
Giants Odds +1.5
Moneyline -126 / +108
Over/Under 40.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel NJ

Chris Raybon: The Giants have no pass-catching threats besides Darius Slayton and will likely struggle to run the ball with Saquon Barkley against a Washington run defense that entered Week 12 ranked second in DVOA.

On the other side of the ball, the extended rest should help the Giants get healthier on defense and come out well prepared for a Washington offense that has been held to under 20 points in three of Taylor Heinicke’s last five starts.

Also, both of these teams are slow-paced, as the Commanders rank 30th in situation-neutral pace while the Giants are 20th, per Football Outsiders.

Per our Action Labs data, late-season divisional unders in the early window have gone 234-154-8 (60%) since 2003.

And since the start of 2021, outdoor divisional unders have gone 59-27 (61%), including a 23-10 (71%) mark this season.

 

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.


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Dolphins Odds +3.5
49ers Odds -3.5
Moneyline +172 / -205
Over/Under 46.5
Time Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel NJ

Chris Raybon: The 49ers defense will be rightfully lauded after shutting out the Saints, but the Dolphins offense will be a shock to their system.

San Francisco entered Week 12 having played the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses in terms of DVOA, but it will now face a Miami offense ranked second in DVOA even when Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson’s starts are included. Tua Tagovailoa entered Week 12 with the seventh-quickest average time to throw (2.51 seconds) among 39 qualified quarterbacks, per PFF, so injuries at tackle shouldn’t hamper the offense too much.

On defense, Miami matches up well because it’s stout against the run, ranking fourth in early-down rush success rate allowed (34.5%), according to RBsDM.com. Miami’s pass defense is also improving thanks to the addition of Bradley Chubb, who has registered a sack in two of his three games with the Dolphins and helped the defense average 3.3 sacks per game since his arrival, up from 1.6 before he was acquired.

Per our Action Labs data, Tagovailoa is 9-4-1 (69%) ATS as an underdog in his career. And this season, underdogs by more than a field goal in games with a total of 47 or less are 51-26 (66%) ATS.

This line has already moved from Dolphins +4 to +3.5, but I’d bet Miami down to +3.


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