Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings: Best Week 16 Straight-Up & ATS Picks for Your Pool

Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings: Best Week 16 Straight-Up & ATS Picks for Your Pool article feature image
Credit:

Mitchell Layton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ravens mascot

  • Looking for help with your Week 16 NFL pick 'em pool? You've come to the right place.
  • Sean Koerner has run his model to come with up the best straight-up and ATS picks for Week 16.
  • He ranks all of the options below and even includes a downloadable spreadsheet so you can get customized picks for the exact spreads for your pool.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 16 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

NFL Week 16 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 16 then wrap it up with ATS.


Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings


Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Seahawks

Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 81.9%

2. Ravens

Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 78.3%

3. Broncos

Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 75.7%

4. Falcons

Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 74.3%

5. Chargers

Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

T-6. 49ers

Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

T-6. Patriots

Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

T-6. Colts

Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

9. Vikings

Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

10. Chiefs

Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

T-11. Steelers

Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-11. Texans

Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-13. Saints

Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

T-13. Cowboys

Matchup: @ PHI
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

T-15. Giants

Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 50%

T-15. Redskins

Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 50%

T-15. Dolphins

Matchup: vs. CIN
Confidence Rating: 50%

T-15. Bengals

Matchup: @ MIA
Confidence Rating: 50%

T-19. Eagles

Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-19. Titans

Matchup: vs. NO
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-21. Buccaneers

Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

49ers-buccaneers-betting-odds-picks-cheat sheet-nfl-week-1-2019
Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jameis Winston

T-21. Jets

Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

23. Bears

Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

24. Packers

Matchup: @ MIN
Confidence Rating: 31.6%

T-25. Bills

Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-25. Rams

Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-25. Panthers

Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

28. Raiders

Matchup: @ LAC
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

29. Jaguars

Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

30. Lions

Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 24.3%

31. Browns

Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 21.7%

32. Cardinals

Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 18.1%


Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings


Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

T-1. Titans

Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. NO

T-1. Eagles

Spread: +1.5
Opponent: vs. DAL

T-3. Buccaneers

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. HOU

T-3. Jets

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. PIT

5. Bears

Spread: +6
Opponent: vs. KC

T-6. Browns

Spread: +10
Opponent: vs. BAL

T-6. Dolphins

Spread: +1
Opponent: vs. CIN

T-8. Seahawks

Spread: -9.5
Opponent: vs. ARI

T-8. Rams

Spread: +7
Opponent: @ SF

10. Giants

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ WAS

11. Panthers

Spread: +7
Opponent: @ IND

12. Broncos

Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. DET

T-13. Chargers

Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. OAK

T-13. Packers

Spread: +5.5
Opponent: @ MIN

15. Bills

Spread: +6.5
Opponent: @ NE

T-16. Falcons

Spread: -7.5
Opponent: vs. JAX

T-16. Jaguars

Spread: +7.5
Opponent: @ ATL

18. Patriots

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. BUF

T-19. Vikings

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. GB

T-19. Raiders

Spread: +7
Opponent: @ LAC

21. Lions

Spread: +7
Opponent: @ DEN

22. Colts

Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. CAR

23. Redskins

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. NYG

T-24. 49ers

Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. LAR

T-24. Cardinals

Spread: +9.5
Opponent: @ SEA

T-26. Bengals

Spread: -1
Opponent: @ MIA

T-26. Ravens

Spread: -10
Opponent: @ CLE

28. Chiefs

Spread: -6
Opponent: @ CHI

T-29. Steelers

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ NYJ

T-29. Texans

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ TB

T-31. Cowboys

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ PHI

T-31. Saints

Spread: -3
Opponent: @ TEN


Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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