Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I'd make before the following week. NFL lines tend move quickly, so it's important that you make your Week 3 NFL picks as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 3 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread; the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 3 Predictions
Raiders vs. Commanders Pick
This is a rare case where I will be betting on a team in one of next week's matchups that still hasn't played yet this week. The Raiders face the Chargers on Monday Night Football tonight, and I'm interested in Las Vegas in this spot.
So, why bet it now?
First off, this Raiders' team might be frisky, and I think there's a chance they prove themselves worthy against the Chargers in primetime in Week 2, and if that turns out to be the case, you won't be able to get this line at +6.5 after Monday night.
Second, Jayden Daniels is currently listed on the Commanders' injury report as day-to-day with a knee injury and just received an MRI.
Washington head coach Dan Quinn is expected to discuss the situation with the media on Monday. But if Daniels is forced to miss some time and Marcus Mariota gets the start in this game, this should be a great price tag on the Raiders regardless of Monday's outcome.
The Commanders enter this contest with a 4-day rest advantage after facing the Packers on Thursday Night Football last week, which admittedly, isn't ideal when it comes to evaluating teams of a pretty similar caliber. The Commanders and Raiders both have bottom-7 defensive units and roughly league-average offenses.
At the moment, I'm not sure which quarterback I trust more, given the fact that Daniels is nursing a knee injury and Geno Smith balled out in last week.
Some trends:
- Road underdogs of 7 points or less in Week 3 are 106-74-4 ATS (59%).
- Home favorites in Week 3 following a loss are 23-44-2 ATS (34%).
- Dan Quinn is 26-38 ATS when favored over the course of his career (41%); the least-profitable active head coach in that department.
- Pete Carroll is 53-34-3 ATS as an underdog (61%); the second-most profitable coach in that category, only behind Mike Tomlin.
If the Raiders stink in Week 2, and all the reporting around Daniels claims he's healthy, we could see this number balloon up to +7 or +7.5. But I currently have this spread projected closer to a field goal margin, and we're already starting to see some +6s and +5.5s show up in the market.
This bet will have huge upside if Daniels is unable to play for the Commanders; +6 is the key number now. Grab this line at +6.5 while you still can.
Pick: Raiders +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Chiefs + Ravens Moneyline Parlay (-106)
The spread for both of these contests is listed around -5.5/-6 at most sportsbooks. But I recommend skipping the -130 teaser and just parlay the moneylines.
The Chiefs and Giants are both 0-2 entering Week 3. So technically, you could say this is a must-win game for both teams. But we all know who the better team is, and they are going to be very desperate in this spot.
The Chiefs' defense was much better against Philly in their latest contest than they were in Week 1.
The Giants' defensive front is a tall task for any offensive line, but Mahomes is used to getting the ball out quick, and he should be able to beat a bad Giants' secondary.
The Giants' offensive line is awful without Andrew Thomas. Their QB situation is a mess. The Chiefs should win this game.
For the second leg, we'll be taking a look at the Ravens hosting the Lions on Monday Night Football.
The last time these teams met two years ago, the Ravens demolished Detroit by a score of 38-6. The Ravens racked up 500+ total yards. The score was 28-0 at halftime. It was ugly.
The Ravens are home, and they are the best team in football. Meanwhile, Detroit hits the road dealing with a handful of injuries on defense.
Just keep it simple and pick some winners in big spotlight games at a bargain.
Pick: Chiefs ML + Ravens ML (-106, DraftKings)
