Chiefs vs Buccaneers: Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks
Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady.
- The Buccaneers are home favorites tonight against the Chiefs.
- Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City are looking to avenge their first losses of the season.
- Chris Raybon breaks down the game and makes his betting pick below.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -130 |
The last time these teams met was at the culmination of the 2020 season in Super Bowl LV, when the Bucs trounced the Chiefs 31-9 despite closing as a three-point underdog.
Will the Chiefs get payback this time around?
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Vikings match up statistically:
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 10 | 1 | |
| Pass DVOA | 7 | 1 | |
| Rush DVOA | 29 | 10 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 27 | 9 | |
| Pass DVOA | 18 | 14 | |
| Rush DVOA | 26 | 6 | |
https://youtu.be/IjpteEZtsfU
Kansas City's offense has not been as good as it looked in Week 1, when it scored 44 points against a Cardinals defense missing J.J. Watt and multiple corners. But it's not as bad as it looked last week against the Colts, when it scored 17 points but left another 14 on the field in the form of a Travis Kelce dropped TD, a missed extra point, a missed 34-yard field goal and an unsuccessful fake field goal.
The Chiefs face their toughest challenge of the season against a Bucs defense that ranks first in DVOA, points allowed per game (9.0) and points allowed per drive (0.75). The Bucs have allowed just three TDs in three weeks.
Kansas City will miss Tyreek Hill in this matchup more than most because the Bucs have a lot of ways to take away Kelce. Tampa Bay has three safeties who rank in the 64th percentile or better in PFF coverage grade — Mike Edwards (100th), Antoine Winfield Jr. (80th), and Logan Ryan (64th). The Bucs also have linebacker Lavonte David, who is in the 97th percentile.
Hill averaged 171.0 yards in the two meetings against the Bucs in 2020; JuJu Smith-Schuster (59.3), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (35.0) and Mecole Hardman (22.3) are averaging 116.6 receiving yards per game combined this season. Tampa Bay boundary corners Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis are allowing a 56.5% completion rate and 6.5 yards per target. Winfield, who often operates as the nickel, has been even stingier, allowing a passer rating of 50.2 on 125 snaps in coverage.
Some of the issues Kansas City had last week could creep up again here. The Chiefs rushed for only 58 yards on 23 carries against the Colts and figure to struggle again against a stout Bucs front — led by Vita Vea — that annually ranks among the league's best run defenses. Oh, and the Chiefs may be using their fourth kicker of the season after Harrison Butker (ankle) missed practice Thursday and Friday.
For as good as the Bucs defense has been, their offense has been nearly as bad, averaging just 17.0 points per game (22nd). There is reason for optimism, however, with Mike Evans returning from suspension, Donovan Smith expected back from his elbow injury, and Julio Jones (knee) and Chris Godwin (hamstring) both having a chance to suit up. The Bucs should be as close to full strength as they've been since Week 1.
The Chiefs have been doing a better job against the run than in years past, but there is nothing particularly daunting about their pass defense, which has allowed a 7-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and a passer rating of 100.4 (25th).
Betting Picks
With a league-best defense and Evans back on offense, the Bucs rate slightly better than the Chiefs, who are solid all-around, but not elite on offense or special teams like prior years.
And with the game not being relocated out of Tampa due to Hurricane Ian, the Bucs have a sizable home-field advantage. Since Tom Brady joined the team, the Bucs are 13-7 (65%) ATS at home, beating the closing line by an average of 3.9 points per game.
Patrick Mahomes is no slouch in these spots (6-0-1 ATS as a dog), but for every Mahomes trend, there's a more impressive Brady trend over a much larger sample.
According to our Action Labs data, Brady is 43-16 (73%) against the spread coming off a straight-up loss since 2003, beating the spread by an average of 6.7 points per game.
Since joining the Bucs, Brady is 7-2 ATS coming off a loss with an average cover margin of +6.9. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are just 7-6 ATS with Mahomes coming off a loss, including 2-3 since the start of last season.
Here's the most impressive Brady stat, though: When coming off a loss as a dog or a favorite by eight points or fewer, Brady is 33-5 (87%) ATS since 2003, covering by an average of 9.9 points per game.
Bet Bucs -1.5 Right Now at FanDuel | Bet to -2
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