NFL Week 4 Picks, Predictions: Colts vs. Bears, Giants vs. Rams Among Sunday’s Sharpest Bets
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones.
The NFC East is bad. Washington, which is currently tied for the division lead with Dallas, is a 14-point home underdog against Baltimore on Sunday.
According to our Bet Labs data, this is just the 17th time since 2003 that an NFL team has been at least a two-touchdown dog at home. Yikes.
But remember, that’s the whole idea of a point spread. Sure, these NFC East teams are bad, but NFL betting odds (and the market) are intended to bridge the gap between two teams.
This doesn’t mean that it’s smart to just blindly bet on bad teams, but it also suggests that you shouldn’t necessarily write them off either.
Using our NFL PRO Report, which examines sharp action, big bets, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and top expert picks, here are three of Sunday’s best betting edges, including:
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
- Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)
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NFL Week 4 PRO Report Betting Picks
Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears
The Colts vs. Bears under has attracted a steady diet of sharp betting action, highlighted by three smart-money indicators via Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — two at under 45 and another at under 44.
Large wagers are also landing on the under, evidenced by 91% of the money hitting that side of the total on just 35% of the bets.
The under has lit up a PRO System match through our windy unders angle, which has nearly a 56% win rate in games with winds of at least 10 mph.
The current Colts vs. Bears weather forecast is calling for 17-18 mph winds at Soldier Field.
The Action Network’s top analysts are siding with the sharps here as well, with two NFL betting experts playing the under.
PRO Report Angle: Under 43
Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pro bettors are moving another total in Week 4: the Browns vs. Cowboys under.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals are reporting two unique instances of wiseguy action driving this total down across the market.
A slight majority of bets (52%) are on the under, but those tickets account for 77% of the money, showing that oddsmakers are certainly heavy on that side of the total.
Our betting model projects this line at 53.6, providing reasoning as to why sharps have consistently come in on the under throughout the week.
Three additional Sunday games are showing bettable edges based on our model projections. Sign up for a FREE PRO Trial to access these right now!
PRO Report Angle: Under 56
New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pros bet numbers, not teams, and that is particularly evident in this matchup. Of course, the Rams are expected to beat the Giants, but sharps are finding value in New York at such a big number, taking three separate cracks at underdog this week.
It’s no surprise to see just 22% of bets backing the 0-3 Giants, but our real money percentages tell a different story.
Despite garnering a significant majority of the action, the G-Men are seeing 47% of dollars wagered, indicating the road underdogs are the landing spot for the big bets.
The Giants also fit a historically-profitable PRO System based on teams getting very little public action following a poor offensive outing.
We know recreational bettors overwhelmingly overrate the most recent results, as NFL teams that scored fewer than 10 points in their previous game and are attracting less than 30% of spread bets are 150-96-4 (61%) against the spread the following week.
New York managed just nine points against San Francisco in Week 3 and, as we mentioned above, is receiving just 22% of spread action.
PRO Report Angle: Giants +13.5