Packers vs Chiefs: Updated NFL Preseason Odds, Predictions
Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Love (left) and Patrick Mahomes.
- The Packers and Chiefs close their preseason schedules tonight at Arrowhead.
- Jordan Love will start for Green Bay, with Aaron Rodgers sitting this one out.
- Brandon Anderson lays out his betting pick for the game below.
Packers vs. Chiefs Odds
|Moneyline||-130 / +110|
|Time||Thursday, 8 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NFL odds here.|
Two perennial Super Bowl contenders close the preseason against each other on Thursday night in Kansas City, where the Packers and Chiefs will face off.
As has been the case in Green Bay’s first two preseason games, Aaron Rodgers will not play in this one. As for Patrick Mahomes, who has lit up the preseason so far, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said, “We’ll see,” when asked about the QB’s availability.
Both of these teams enter at 1-1 and coming off wins. Jordan Love was underwhelming in Green Bay’s win over New Orleans last week, with the running game leading the way to the tune of 178 yards on the ground on 5.2 yards per carry.
Fantasy football managers will have their eyes on this game for one potential sleeper star on each team. For Green Bay, Romeo Doubs has stood out as a potential rookie sensation, catching a touchdown from Love in each of the first two preseason games and earning Rodgers’ praise throughout training camp.
For Kansas City, it’s Isiah Pacheco. The previously unheralded rookie was getting first-team snaps alongside Mahomes against Washington last week, indicating he could be in for a big role in the regular season.
Enough chit chat. How are we betting this game? Brandon Anderson is on it, as he breaks down which moneyline he’s on below.
Brandon Anderson: Matt LaFleur’s Packers have been nearly unbeatable in the regular season. Since LaFleur came to Green Bay, the mighty Pack have won 13 games in each of his three seasons at the helm, an impressive 39-10 record.
But LaFleur hasn’t been anywhere near as good in the preseason. His Packers are just 3-6 in preseason games, including 1-4 this year and last. LaFleur’s saving his best stuff for the games that matter, and he knows stars like Aaron Rodgers don’t need any warming up for the regular season.
That means it’s typically a good idea to fade the Packers in the preseason.
Admittedly, we tried this last week and it didn’t work. Green Bay was a solid -180 favorite and won easily at home against the Saints, 20-10. When LaFleur is at least a 3-point favorite in the preseason, his teams are 2-1.
But that’s not the case here, and our BetLabs data shows Green Bay is just 1-5 straight up under LaFleur when the Packers are short favorites or underdogs, with an average margin of -7.8 points per game.
Blindly betting whoever is playing the Packers under LaFleur — as long as they’re not big favorites — has produced a 33.9% return on investment in the preseason.
All the better than Reid’s Chiefs are 4-5 as preseason underdog, a good record in their own right.
Look, we aren’t getting the real Chiefs or Packers, no Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes. But we may as well follow the trends and make a few bucks. I’ll fade Green Bay and ride with the Chiefs money line.
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