Patriots Super Bowl Odds, Win Total, More Futures: What To Expect After Busy Offseason

Patriots Super Bowl Odds, Win Total, More Futures: What To Expect After Busy Offseason article feature image

Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images. Pictured: Patriots quarterbacks Cam Newton (left) and Mac Jones (right).

Action's Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, simulated the 2021 NFL season 10,000 times to project win totals and playoff odds for every AFC East team in order to identify early value on their futures.

Here's how he sees things shaking out for the New England Patriots.

Patriots 2022 Super Bowl Odds

In Year 2 of the post-Tom Brady era, New England is sitting at +3500 to win it all in Super Bowl LVI as of July 30.

Super Bowl Odds at DraftKings+3500

Patriots Win Total Projections


Average Wins8.9
Make vs. Miss Playoffs45.2% vs. 54.8%
Win Total at DraftKingsOver 9.5 (+110) / Under 9.5 (-130)

Patriots Betting Predictions

The Patriots did not enjoy the first season of the post-Tom Brady era. They finished with a 7-9 record, failed to make the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade, and Brady won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers 一 in their home stadium no less. Therefore it wasn't surprising to see Bill Belichick go on a $170 million spending spree in free agency and use the Pats’ first-round pick on a QB (Mac Jones). 

They overpaid a handful of players in free agency. Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are all quality additions, but not enough to make this a 10+ win team. As a result, I'm projecting New England to finish under 9.5 wins 60.2% of the time.

Pick: Under 9.5 (+110) at DraftKings

2021 AFC East Projections

There could be a real battle between the Patriots and Dolphins this year for second place in the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills63.1%23.5%11.3%2.1%
Miami Dolphins19.7%33.8%32.1%14.3%
New England Patriots15.5%35.2%37.5%11.8%
New York Jets1.5%7.7%19.3%71.5%

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