Action's Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, simulated the 2021 NFL season 10,000 times to project win totals and playoff odds for every AFC East team in order to identify early value on their futures.
Here's how he sees things shaking out for the New England Patriots.
Patriots 2022 Super Bowl Odds
In Year 2 of the post-Tom Brady era, New England is sitting at +3500 to win it all in Super Bowl LVI as of July 30.
| Super Bowl Odds at DraftKings | +3500 |
Patriots Win Total Projections
| Average Wins | 8.9 |
| Make vs. Miss Playoffs | 45.2% vs. 54.8% |
| Win Total at DraftKings | Over 9.5 (+110) / Under 9.5 (-130) |
Patriots Betting Predictions
The Patriots did not enjoy the first season of the post-Tom Brady era. They finished with a 7-9 record, failed to make the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade, and Brady won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers 一 in their home stadium no less. Therefore it wasn't surprising to see Bill Belichick go on a $170 million spending spree in free agency and use the Pats’ first-round pick on a QB (Mac Jones).
They overpaid a handful of players in free agency. Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are all quality additions, but not enough to make this a 10+ win team. As a result, I'm projecting New England to finish under 9.5 wins 60.2% of the time.
Pick: Under 9.5 (+110) at DraftKings
2021 AFC East Projections
There could be a real battle between the Patriots and Dolphins this year for second place in the AFC East.
| Team | 1st Place | 2nd Place | 3rd Place | 4th Place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 63.1% | 23.5% | 11.3% | 2.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 19.7% | 33.8% | 32.1% | 14.3% |
| New England Patriots | 15.5% | 35.2% | 37.5% | 11.8% |
| New York Jets | 1.5% | 7.7% | 19.3% | 71.5% |
